Suppose Texas Succeeds in Seceding?

I think it unlikely the referendum succeeds, and even if it does it seems to me you Americans fought a war to decide if a state could unilaterally secede. But let’s ignore all that and suppose Texas does secede. What are the political ramifications?

The number of electoral votes changes to 500. If I’m computing this correctly, I think Trump would have won 194 (232 - 38), which is 38% vs. 46%. This seems like it would be a disaster for the Republicans. Can the Republicans win the presidency without Texas?

What other ramifications would there be?

EDIT: Could a mod add “Suppose” to the start and “?” to the end of the title just to make it clearer this is hypothetical. I would not want someone to think Texas had seceded. Thanks!

Nope, it’d only go down to 536. They’d reapportion Congressional seats to keep the number at 435. So the only change in electoral votes would be because two fewer Senators.

There are a lot of US military bases in Texas. Texas probably assumes that they’d get to keep those, but the US disagrees.

And it’s pretty well established that unilateral succession isn’t allowed, but I see no reason it couldn’t happen with mutual consent. And if Texas wants to secede, I and many other Americans see no reason to stop them (with the understanding that we still keep all of our own stuff). At the state level, it’d need at least whatever procedure Texas uses for amendments to its constitution; at the federal level, I think all it would take would be an ordinary law passed by Congress (after all, admission of new states only needs an ordinary law).

Huh. I did not know that. Thanks. I suppose that makes the math more complicated to figure out where those seats would go. Some would certainly go to solidly blue states though so it seems like it would still be a negative for Republicans although not as bad.

EDIT: Thanks WhatExit? for changing the title. :slight_smile:

While the Texas Legislature has historically had more than its share of losers and loonies, it’s not as extreme as the Republican Party activists who draw up state party platforms, and it’s very unlikely they’ll take action to implement a secession referendum, not to mention stuff like calls to end the federal income tax.

“Party platforms are mission statements rather than legal doctrines and, in Texas, they have long reflected the opinions of the most activist wings of the parties. Republican elected officials are not bound to adhere to the platform, and party activists at times have expressed frustration that some parts of their platform and legislative priorities have not become law, despite complete Republican control of the state Legislature.”

As for the huh-huh-let-'em-secede crowd, remember that there are millions of Texans who don’t buy into the crap their leaders push, and deserve to remain American citizens.

My opinion is largely: Fuck em. I don’t care. I’d love to see Texas, and many of the other deep red States break away. The United States no longer makes any real sense, and most people would be happier if it were broken up. There is no meaningfully realistic way to achieve this, but I am in favor of it being proposed and discussed as often as possible to help normalize the idea.

Let me make a slight amendment to my statement. Depending on the timing, they might run one election with 500 electoral votes. It depends on how much lead time there is between Texas seceding and the election.

There’s precedence of sorts. When Alaska and Hawaii joined in 1959, they each got one Congressional seat without reapportionment. So the House of Representatives had 437 members for a couple years. Since the Census was coming up in 1960, they didn’t bother with a special reapportionment, but just let the decennial reapportionment do the job. At any rate, there were 537 electoral votes* in the 1960 election.

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*DC didn’t have any electoral votes yet, so previous elections had had 531 electoral votes.

Um, cite?

If Texas wants to seceded - provided this can be done peacefully - I say let 'em reassert their status as an independent nation.

What the Texas National Guard has they can keep (don’t want to leave 'em entirely defenseless). What belongs to the Feds gets pulled out, they can’t have that.

Any resident of Texas with a United States passport has that passport invalidated at the date of secession. They can issue their own damn passports. If that’s inconvenient too bad. If you’re a resident of Texas you become a Texas citizen on that date and are no longer a US citizen unless you apply beforehand to keep your US citizenship, but in that case you are NOT qualified for Texas citizenship - those who live there will have to decide (so I’m anticipating there will be some delay between the process to secede and the actual date it is effective).

After the new, international border is established travel across the new border will be the same as travel over any other land border of the US. Those over-staying their visas or breaking the law in the US will be deported back home and banned from returning to the US.

After that, they’re on their own in regards to policing their borders, international relations, trade, and so forth which they will have to fund solely from the money they can raise within their new nation-state.

They won’t be penniless, of course - Texas does have agriculture, industry, etc. as well as a coastline allowing them ports for international trade via the ocean - but I think they will find things much more difficult than when they were part of a global superpower. Because Texas on its own will very much NOT be a superpower. They may even find it harder to deal with Mexico. In fact, Mexico may even want them back and maybe the US won’t instantly leap to defend the place.

Likewise, aid in the event of a natural disaster may not be as forthcoming or quick to get there.

If a bunch of religious nutjobs want to turn it in to the Republic of Gilead… well, sure, but good luck keeping people inside, The US could offer asylum to those fleeing such an oppressive system and Texas will start to bleed population. And they’ll find they have little to no ability to order around the behemoth to their north.

And, since he won’t be part of the US Federal government Ted Cruz might have to get a real job. Because I doubt the New Republic of Texas will have any form of welfare.

I say we build a wall.

You forgot - and make them pay for it.
Okay, in fact I’d chip in.
Can we keep Austin, we could make it like Berlin, with airlifts and stuff?

Texas becomes a rapidly failing petrostate. The tech industry concentrations in Austin and Dallas-Ft. Worth decline as workers decide that they want to retain US citizenship. The US Department of Defense does another BRAC and relocates the six Air Force Bases, three Army posts, three Naval Air stations, various reserve Army and Air Force bases camps and fields, and Coast Guard stations removing over 120k military personnel and about an equal number of civilian employees (conservatively speaking) resulting in substantial increase in unemployment. Agriculturally Texas is mostly self-sustaining but is going to require imports of many other goods and materials that will have it running a trade deficit. The next time a hurricane devastates the Gulf Coast and Houston they will not have funds to rebuild, resulting in mass migration away from the coastal area and precipitous decline of this area.

The political impact upon the remaining United States is unclear. It will certainly remove a large concentration of Republicans but whether that would result in a true political shift is unclear. One might imagine that it would stimulate other ‘Red’ states and areas to consider secession which would result in much wider political instability. Texas likely tries to establish itself as a trade intermediary between the United States and Mexico but transportation routes shift from El Paso to New Mexico and Arizona. We can finally make Ted Cruz a formal persona non grata and is prohibited from entering the United States by a resolution passed by both houses of Congress passing a resolution with a unanimous vote of a concerted bipartisan movement.

Stranger

We would have the same problem now that we had then - the federal government would have to accept that they aren’t allowed to maintain their military bases in Texas, only now they’re a nuclear power and I would say this manufactured political drama is far from sufficient to inspire more than a handful of rogues in the military, national guard etc to defect in significant enough numbers to even put US supremacy in question.

I agree with this. It seems unthinkable at the moment, and the compications and ramifications are immense, but it’s not impossible. I wonder what proportion of Americans would, in vague general terms, support the idea of splitting up the U.S.? I would not be surprised if it’s already a majority.

We should take in refugees fleeing religious prosecution in the Theocratic Republic of Texas

I feel like the Mexican drug cartels might start looking at NewTexaStan as a reasonable asset to invade and colonize.

I mean … would we defend them, supply them, back them monetarily, or just offer thoughts and prayers (which, by this point, would be the basis of their constitution) ?

As of right now, they’re already subject to the idiotic laws of their Republican elected officials. That’s democracy for you; there will always be people who don’t like the way their government turns out.

I’d be more than willing to welcome immigration from any of them who wished to come to the US, though. Which is about all we can do for them, now or in this hypothetical future.

We’re not enforcing those laws very well now. Why treat Texans any differently?

I say let them go. Help them pack. Just pull NASA and military installations out. Give Texans a choice of whether to stay in Texas or move to the US up to a certain date, then revoke the US citizenship of those who don’t. Kick their sports franchises out of MLB, NHL, NBA, and NFL. Ditto the NCAA. :Build a wall around Texas. Deny Texan aircraft permission to fly over the US. Make them pay their share of the national debt. Make it clear to Mexico that we will not defend Texas. Just getting Ted Cruz out of the Senate will be worth any economic hardship that the split will cost the rest of us.

Because they’re Texans and because we can. :stuck_out_tongue:

Yes, total support with everything we can bring to bear. Oh, wait…you meant Texas. Never mind…