I agree with this, and would only change “happier” to “better off.”
This. I would rather the streets run red with blood like the Boston molasses flood than let so much as a suburb secede from this nation. They don’t like the United States of America? Don’t let the door hit 'em where evolution split 'em.
This is made easier by Texas’ location and history. Tougher to imagine what we do if, say, Wyoming gets a similar notion.
Oh, it already has. As the article notes, however,
According to a 2020 Pew report, the federal government provides 42.1% of Wyoming’s annual funding — the state’s greatest source.
There isn’t apparently enough Texans to stop the batshit crazies from running the asylum.
So far as I know, those are all private organizations, who could decide on their own whether or not to continue doing business in Texas, independently of whether Texas secedes or not. And the MLB and NHL at least already have teams in multiple countries (in fact, the “National” in “National Hockey League” refers to Canada, not the US).
What federal elections? I don’t think the US has any of those, at least not that ordinary citizens vote in.
The US owns property in plenty of foreign countries, including some that would really prefer we didn’t. No reason we couldn’t hold onto property in the newly-independent Texas, too.
There are elections for federal offices.
Texas Republicans: “US elections are threatening to become increasingly fair and representative. We’re not having any of fhat crap.”
Texas is something like 40% Latino. Despite the shift that we’ve seen toward voting R in that community, I’m not sure they want to be beholden by an unrestrained Y’All Qaeda government.
Particularly one that’s generally been so hostile to minorities.
Also, there are Americans of Latino descent, and there are those who immigrated to the US from poorer Latin American countries. They almost surely came to the US … because it was the US. How much of what attracted immigrants to this country would still exist in TexaStan ? IOW, is their tribalism State or Federal ? I’d guess far more likely the latter.
If/when TexaStan collapses – as it almost inevitably would – I’d guess a fair number of Latinos would be drawn to their ‘home countries’ (or another Spanish speaking country with fewer of the problems that TexaStan would inevitably experience.
Or they’d seek asylum in the USA (what’s old is new again).
At which point, TexaStan might very well complete The Wall, if only to avoid a giant brain and labor pool drain.
Though I’m not sure who would construct it at that point.
I find the irony just a wee bit amusing.
ETA: I’m not sure the 13% of Texans who are African-American would feel a whole lot better about their new government/status in flux, either.
I just copyrighted:
I for one, welcome our new redneck overlords.
BAM !
I’m no constitutional expert, but reapportionment to 435 may not be mandatory, since the 1911 Apportionment Act only capped the number at 435, and since then there has been no precedent for reducing the number of reps. Now, there are no doubt many reasons why reapportionment would probably happen, but an argument might be made that it is not strictly necessary, and some people would find reasons to oppose it.
Can you say more about your calculations and results? My simplistic look at it is this:
Current house (six vacant seats assigned to party of former incumbent)
Dem: 222 | 51%
Rep: 213 | 49%
Texas delegation:
Dem: 12
Rep: 24
House minus Texas reps:
Dem: 210 | 52.6%
Rep: 189 | 47.4%
Presumably these percentages would remain roughly equivalent after reapportionment.
And obviously in the Senate, the split would become 50/48.
As a Texas Liberal, I feel like the 14th amendment makes it very clear that I’m a citizen of the US, not of Texas, and my government is supposed to protect me against the tyranny of the majority in my state. Texas seceding would certainly deprive me of all kinds of rights, putting legal walls between myself and my country, cutting me off from my family and friends, forcing me to sell my property at what I would imagine would be a horrible loss in order to stay an American.
I sorta feel like in such a case like this, the 49% of us who voted to stay could and should expect the Federal government to intervene on our behalf.
I did an excel macro that approximates the current apportionment method (pm for more detail not necessary for general consumption) and I’m probably not more than a couple of seats off.
I came up with 235 EVs for Dems (based on '20 results), 198 GOP and 100 in the seven battleground states. A tough climb for a Republican candidate for POTUS, but not an impossible one.
I did not get into a party breakdown of the revised house because I simply wouldn’t know where to start. But I think that an increased number of reps spread among one fewer state would slightly favor the party with more urban voters - plus there’s that immediate 12 seat swing you noted.
The general rule is that citizens living abroad vote in the last state they were a resident of. They probably don’t get to vote in local elections, and which positions count as local may vary between states, but they definitely get to vote for president. The problem is that the last state the Texans were a resident of is no longer a state. So there’s no where for them to vote.
@Chronos made this point but not as well as he could have. That is, he pointed out that there’s no federal election for president, but didn’t say there’s actually 51 state elections for presidential electors.
Hmm, good point. I guess Puerto Rico and Guam and stuff don’t actually have electors.
+1.
(min_post_padding)
But there are no federally administered elections - overseas voters vote via their state of residence (AFAIK)
An election reform org I follow called “Uncap The House” just tweeted that, if Texas seceded the number of congressional seats would decrease to 398 until 2030. They cite the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929.
Unfortunately, there are people in this very thread willing to sacrifice you and yours to get (as they see it) closer to getting this nonsense over with.
Funny how some folks will make fun of libertarians saying “just move!” but turn around and say pretty much the same regarding this topic.
Doesn’t one have to be a citizen of Texas in order to vote in Texas state & local elections?