Survivor 3 April (open spoilers possible)

No, actually. After Ami caught Erik talking her down to Cirie and Amanda, she had a great big makeout…er, make-up session with them, which led her to feel like she actually belonged to the tribe. So she went down to the beach and passed Erik on the way. She told him she wanted to thank him because now that he’d aired her dirty laundry she was able to actually open communications with the other women on the tribe and she now felt like she belonged, and it was mostly due to him.

Now, that doesn’t sound like much, but it was in that ultrasweet tone (think Absolutely Fabulous “Sweetie darling!”) that signals ultrabitchy snark.

Oh, yeah, muldoonthief remembered the part I didn’t…the machete. You could see in Erik’s eyes he was thinking, “Don’t yell. Don’t react. Be very polite to the crazy lady with the big knife.”

Sorry, but I disagree wholeheartedly with nearly everything in this post. Ozzy is already a target, so there is no reason to try to fly under the radar. You can’t do that unless you are a quiet, mousey, unthreatening, and not a factor in any of the challenges. Several of his tribemates have asked “Do *you *want to face Ozzy in the later challenges?”

There is a strategic element to Survivor gameplay. If Ozzy doesn’t make any game changing moves, then people would complain he doesn’t deserve to win a million dollars.

Finally, you don’t shake up your alliance unless someone in your alliance isn’t true to the alliance. This reinforces loyalty and enforces a penalty on betrayal. If Ozzy does not enforce that penalty, then everybody would target him next time. There isn’t a reason not to target Ozzy if there is no penalty. Therefore, Ozzy was 100% correct in defending against future betrayal. Trust me, others will think twice after considering how every other attempt to oust Ozzy has failed. And Ozzy absolutely needs for that to happen.

Contrast this with how Mikey B did not respond correctly to Joel’s successful plot to eliminate his ally, Mary. He left at the next opportunity.

Thanks, jayjay and muldoonthief. I’d caught some of the machete-conference, but my kid was distracting me or something, so I missed the gist. Now that sounds like the cold-hearted bitchy Ami that we’ve all come to know. Buh-bye, girl. Too bad, so sad.

I agree with The Controvert. And the fact that Parvati is scheming in the other tribe makes Ozzy’s choices all the more urgent. He needs loyalty and fidelity, and he knows he has more of that with Erik than with Ami. As the preview showed (and yes, I know one has to be careful about that), Parvati isn’t the only one ready to discard the whole fans versus favorites thing. So is Ozzy.

Regarding Cirie, I think keeping her around has (so far) been the right thing to do. It’s true that she has a scheming nature, but her schemes are half-hearted and come to nothing unless they happen to benefit the people she feels are most important to her. And (so far) the most important people to her have been Ozzy and Amanda.

I hate to say it but Cirie needs to stay until the merge. She has no chance of winning an individual immunity and so she can be picked off at any time. She is in an alliance right now and her alliance will carry her as far as they can before cutting her loose.

That is, if her alliance realizes that they can make a decision without checking with Cirie first.

My guess on Cirie is that at some point she’s going to blindside someone in her alliance, and the producers are setting us up for that.

And if they’re not, I wish they’d cut out the Cirie confessionals altogether.

I never implied he could or should fly under the radar. I was saying that he hadn’t given anyone in his alliance a good reason to distrust him or feel threatened by him (except as someone you wouldn’t want to face in the final three). NOW, they have been pushed in a direction of “Ozzie is a threat to me if he even thinks I’ve been disloyal, so I should try to get rid of him ASAP.”

Not necessarily – because Ami was disloyal to him. Reason to not cross him, yes – but to think that he’d act irrationally towards you, no.

I just realized what Ami waving around the machete while “thanking” Erik reminds me of - the scene in Caddyshack where Bill Murray is casually tapping a pitchfork against a caddy’s throat while telling his Dalai Lama story.

Cirie doesn’t suck at challenges. As I recall, she was part of the two-woman team that won immunity by successfully dodging Joel and Chet in the tag challenge that (eventually) knocked Jonathan out of the game.

ETA: Uh, was that her? I remember she hauled ass in that challenge, but now I’m having trouble remembering who the last two women were that won it.

No one does any survivor round-ups anymore, so I am doing one. here is Cog’s pre-merger predictions!

Who is bringing Pie?
Ozzy has the best chance of winning it all. Parvati has a slim chance, as does James. Alexis and Natalie could win if Parvati can swing things around.

Ozzy Is in a very good spot. He demonstrated his power in this game, and he holds the HI. He will make the final 4 if he plays smart, both during and after the challenges.
Parvati is forming a new alliance that could turn everything around. I think her success will depend on Amanda. If she is successful, she will make the final 4. If not, she might still make it if her Ozzy-Amanda-James alliance takes her back.
James will make final 4 if his alliance holds, but he will be an early jury member if it fails apart.
Natalie will be voted out soon after the merge, unless Parvati’s switch up is successful. If so, she has a shot at the final 4.
Alexis… I don’t know why you guys aren’t worshiping her like you all did with Amanda last season. This girl is gorgeous! I would love to spend some time with her on Exile Island, looking for hidden idols! Unfortunately, she is in the same boat as Natalie, about to be picked off. But either might sneak by as the Favorites start eating their own.

Who likes sheep?
Cirie, Amanda, Erik, Jason and Eliza are all long shots.

Cirie is better at challenges then you might think by looking at her, but she is in not a threatening competitor. She may think she has some control in tribe matters, but she doesn’t. Her allies need to stroke her ego for a few more episodes, then ditch her. I expect her to make it to the Jury.
Amanda will cling to Ozzy for the moment, and ride his coattails until the end. I think someone will try to get to Ozzy by blind-siding her. She will be on the Jury.
Erik will last at most 3 more weeks. Ozzy will petition to keep him around and get him on the Jury, but he might get booted next TC.
Jason will be voted out soon, as the Favorites secure the majority after the merge.
Eliza will be grasping at straws to wedge herself into an alliance. She will most likely be the odd-one out at the final 5, regardless of who she is with.

It would be hard to outsuck Chet.

snerk

In any other season, Alexis would definitely have a huge fan club. But she doesn’t for two reasons:

  1. As it’s Fans vs Favorites, the producers have focused a lot of time on the Favorites, giving the Fans (and Alexis) less screentime than they normally would have.

  2. Amanda is still in this season, so while Alexis is a cutie, she’s cute in the “Hot girl’s little sister” way. Which means that no one can really appreciate her until the hot sister is out of the picture.

I cannot wait for next week. The remaining Fans are turning out to be good players.