Ha! Nice. GMTA 
Doesn’t he actually look like someone famous? I can’t place it and my wife doesn’t see it, but it was driving me crazy.
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I think the name Ghost Island is very stupid. Every time I hear it, I think they’re saying “go stylin’”.
Like so many Survivor plans, Michael’s was good in theory but flopped in practice.
What if you do this:
“We have an idol to protect two of our members - that means we have a 50/50 chance of cancelling your 5 votes. We are splitting our 4 votes: 2 for Bradley and 2 for Sebastian. Sebastian, if you flip to Bradley, you are safe no matter what (3-2 if we pick right). Bradley, if you flip to Sebastian, you are safe no matter what. If not, and we pick correctly, one of you is going home - who do you think your alliance will pick?”
I think at that point one response for the majority is to split their votes 3-2 as well, which could force a tie - but that still potentially puts the majority in jeopardy if he doesn’t flip. In fact, if the 3 votes get cancelled then you would have a 2-2-2 tie where the remaining voters are split 3-3. Very interesting.
I think I would still have all 4 of Michael’s group vote for Bradley anyways, since that would keep our players safe if Sebastian flips whether we guess right with the idol or not. And also gives us the win if they try to counter our play by splitting their votes.
(On preview I see you already proposed this approach… I think it’s the right play here).
The problem with this plan is I’m not sure Sebastian is quick-witted enough to follow the numbers, and I’m pretty sure that Bradley would realize he’s a dead man walking if he flips on Sebastian.
In retrospect I think that in general power plays at tribal are just too risky - they probably should have approached Sebastian ahead of time. But it sounded like Bradley had that all locked down.
I thought of the 2-2 tie idea, but doesn’t that guarantee both of them are safe as long as they don’t flip on each other? Because if the idol is played right and then it’s a tie, then those two are safe. Although presumably that would still work out well for the minority alliance of four, because in the revote they would still have four votes and the others would have three. Or would the guy they saved with the idol also not get to vote in the second round?
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Do the players get a cash bonus every time they mention “reversing the curse”? It’s a really stupid premise, and I’m surprised whenever I hear someone going along with it. Michael’s plan was pretty good-- too bad he flipped at the last minute. That would have been some good theater. For those who missed it, he mentioned on the opening episode that he was 18 but that he was going to tell everyone he was 23. I agree he’s pretty mature for an 18-year-old. Too bad his goose is cooked if they lose immunity again. He just marked himself as “the dangerous opponent”. Better get crackin’ at finding another HII!!
He kind of looks like Hayden Christiansen in the movie Shattered Glass.
If you mention the premise of the season and really milk it, it’s more likely that your comments to the camera are going to get aired. It’s why Coach always made a big deal about how great what ever product they had a placement for was. It gets you screen time.
I’m sure they knew going in that getting somebody flip was a longshot, but that they’d be foolish not to try anyway. It really only makes sense if they announce their target, even though it telegraphed to the others that they were safe. Otherwise, how would any potential flippers know whom to vote for?
Michael sold the lie about the idol protecting two people quite beautifully, which, though ultimately superfluous, probably helped their chances a little. And (maybe it was just the edit) I think Sebastian was very close to flipping.
Stephanie was definitely a plausible target, so I can’t blame them for that guess. Ultimately, they had the best possible plan for the situation, but it required a bit of luck, which they didn’t get. Though the little weasel Bradley was definitely sweating.
But, in the long run, I believe they did sow some seeds of discontent in the alliance, which may help the remaining three survive to the merge.
I agree that Michael masterfully sold it at tribal. I think SlakerInc hit on the reasons no one flipped. It wasn’t a bad plan - they were outnumbered - they just couldn’t get anyone to bite.
What Micheal should have done, IMHO, was to make himself the target of the other teams ire. Take all the votes, play the idol and send home the target of their choice.
I agree that Sebastian was close to flipping. And is no one going to mention his make up?
I swear to Og Sebastian’s head is too big for his body or something. SOMETHING about his proportions or his eyes or his face in general is bugging the hell out of me.
I can understand why they might’ve thought it’d be Steph, since it happens quite often that people won’t go after the main ‘threat’ but rather their alliance mates, for fear of an idol. And they’re still in the pre-merge stage, so eliminating her to keep one of the guys around ostensibly helps for challenge strength.
But what makes it agonizing is that they already suspected that they didn’t care about “keeping the tribe strong” and that they’d likely target a male… and when he the bluff (announcing the idol was for the two men) Bradley looked away, which to me is an indicator of “aw fuck he called it”… but then Michael changed his mind. I think he might’ve gotten too into his own head with pretending it was a double idol.
I agree! There is something very odd about his looks, but I can’t pinpoint it. It might just be everything!
My though about Michael should have done:
- Say he has the double idol.
- Say each person in his alliance is going to vote for someone different on the other tribe, but not Bradley. There’s now a 50/50 chance it goes to a four way tie between the remaining four.
- They only way they can guarantee their safety, is to vote for Bradley now.
- All four vote for Bradley, and if one of the other 4 flips, he goes home.
It might be to hard to explain, but you have the advantage of only needing to convince one of the four to flip to save themselves.
I thought he made a valiant effort. How many times have you seen the faction on the outs pretty much give up? I liked seeing them working right up until the votes were counted. Usually, I’m not that in to Survivor until the merge, but we got some gamers this season.
I agree that it seems like a good try, but I’m just trying to figure out if there’s something that would have been better in game theory. It might be that there is not, in which case it really was the best gambit they could come up with.
But wouldn’t a four way tie guarantee all four of them get to stay? Or am I remembering that wrong?
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A four way ties means there would be a re-vote, just for those four.
I think that this season, in the event of a tie, they draw rocks.
I thought last season they went back to re-vote, and then draw rocks rule.
This is what I remember as well.
Ah, right: the immunity for those tied is only after another revote that is also tied. In the scenario we are talking about here, the revote would have gone Michael’s way. That’s a good plan then!
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