I had some analysis that I did not put into last week’s thread, so I will start up the new one.
I want to start off with a realization that I had. I think it is strong enough to perhaps become a Bloomberg rule: “Keep a Clay around”. You want to go to the jury against a very unpopular player, such as Clay was last season.
I think Roger would have made a perfect candidate. Instead of voting him out, everybody should have been trying to keep him. I believe Matt is similar now that Roger is gone.
My second observation is that I think Rob made a mistake in not going along with Deena’s idea to get Alex. He could have used the ill will Deena’s plot created to get her next week, and gotten rid of a strong player (Alex). Why do I call Alex a strong player? See below.
In trying to analyize strategy, I have listed all possible final pairs and jurys. Right now, I don’t know what happens to get to the final 2, and some of the preferences could be based on that. For example, I think that Rob could go to the bottom of Deena’s preference list. She might respect her old co-plotter, but I think she might be mad at him for turning on her instead of Alex.
In general, I think it is hardest to guess how people will view Rob, since if he gets to the final 2 it is due to his own machinations. Contrast if the final is Butch and Christie for example. This would probably come about by the schemers going after each other and B,C winning several immunities.
I have tried to estimate how much each potential juror likes the potential winners. The results are in the table below. I have used some general assumptions: Christy and Jenna really don’t like each other. The women seemed freaked out by Matt. In the table below, the number indicates how much the person listed first likes the listed person.
Potential Jurors
Butch:Christy 52, Matt 51, Rob, 49, Alex 48, Jenna 40,Heidi (I’m not looking) 20
Alex: Jenna 80, Heidi 65, Rob 60, Christy 55, Matt 50, Butch 40,
Matt: Butch 50, Alex 49, Rob 48, Christy 47, Heidi 46, Jenna 45
Rob: Jenna 70, Heidi 65, Alex 50, Butch 40, Matt 30, Christy 29
Christy:Butch 60, Alex 59, Rob 50, Matt 20, Heidi 5, Jenna 0
Heidi:Jenna 70, Alex 50, Rob 45, Butch 40, Christy 30, Matt 25
Jenna: Heidi 71, Alex 70, Rob 40, Butch 25, Matt 20, Christy 0
Already Jurors
Deena: Butch 70, Alex 60, Rob 50??, Matt 41, Christy 40, Heidi 20, Jenna 19
Dave: Heidi 90, Jenna 80, Christy 70, Butch 65, Matt 50, Rob 30, Alex 29
Using the above preferences, I get these jury results:
Listed is a final pair, and the people I think would vote for each member of the pair
–
Butch C, De, Da, M
Alex H, J, R
Butch R,C,H,J,De,Da
Matt A
Butch C,De,Da,M
Rob A,H,J,
Butch M,R,H,J,De
Christy A,Da
Butch M,C,De
Heidi A,R,J,Da
Butch M,C,De
Jenna A,R,H,Da
Alex R,C,H,J,De
Matt B,Da
Alex M,C,H,J,De
Rob B,Da
Alex M,R,H,J,De
Christy B,Da
Alex M,C,B,De
Heidi R,J,Da
Alex B,M,C,De
Jenna R,H,Da
–
Matt B,Da
Rob A,C,H,J,De
Matt R,J,De,
Christy B,A,H,Da
Matt B,C,De
Heidi A,R,J,Da
Matt B,C,M
Jenna A,R,H,Da
–
Rob A,M,H,J,De
Christy B,Da
Rob B,M,C,De
Heidi A,J,Da
Rob B,M,C,De
Jenna A,H,Da
–
Christy B,M,De
Heidi A,R,J,Da
Christy B,A,M,De
Jenna H,R,Da
–
Heidi M,C,De,Da
Jenna B,A,R
I get
Butch 4, Alex 5, Matt 0, Rob 4, Christy 2, Heidi 4, Jenna 2
This analysis confirms my intuition that Alex is the strongest and Matt the weakest.
Thus, I think that instead of fooling Matt, Rob should genuinely ask Matt, Butch and Christy to help him vote off Alex. Assuming Alex gets immuinity, get rid of Jenna as being the person most likely to not want to get rid of Alex.
What does the board think of my preference lists? Can anybody make an argument for no-transitive preferences? That is, name some player who would pick A over B, B over C, but also C over A in a final 2?
Many of my 4-3 votes I am not very confident of. What votes do you think I have wrong?
