I’ve just posted this in the thread for last week. I’ve edited it here to remove things specific to that thread.
Note that there might be a spoiler in there, based on the preview at the end of last week’s show; but I’m not using a spoiler box because the preview was broadcast and I presume everyone has seen it or is aware of it. And it might be misdirection anyway.
Late to the party, as usual.
I think Cochran deserves to win. ‘Outwit, outplay, outlast’? He’s certainly outwitted everyone so far. He’s thinking ahead, and moving his chess pieces. Since ‘outwit’ deals with strategy, I assume ‘outplay’ means to to well in the challenges (as opposed to the overall gameplay). He’s not so great at those; but as has been shown, not winning (not ‘outplaying’) can be a positive in the ‘outwit’ part of the game. And he’s lasting pretty well.
I think Cochran is toast.
The others know how well he’s played this game. I don’t think he’s seriously pissed off any of the jury. Sure, it will come out that he was behind some oustings; but I think he can make a good case that he was strategically necessary and people won’t be too upset. Who would his competition be in the final TC? Dawn? An unstable follower who was only kept around because she voted how the leaders wanted her to. Sherri? I don’t think she ever made any ‘big plays’ on her own. Another coat tail rider. Erik? Likeable enough, but not an intellectual powerhouse. Eddie? The Man Without Hope. He might win the TC just because he made it that far. I said Cochran hadn’t pissed off too many people; but they might be mad enough to vote for Eddie just because. I think the other players know they don’t stand a chance against Cochran, so they must get rid of him.
It seems clear someone leaves the game unexpectedly. Or else I was fooled by the ‘Next time on Survivor …’ preview… [A]ssuming that the preview was genuine and someone is evacuated, my thoughts [are] that Dawn [has] a mental breakdown. Erik was weak and took a fairly serious risk climbing the palm tree, but he ate well after that. I don’t see him doing something silly and injuring himself, but it might happen. Any of the remaining five might be evacuated if stricken by a random piece of bad luck. Maybe one of them is bitten by a venomous snake or arthropod. Maybe someone gets a bad case of food poisoning. Maybe someone stumbles in the dark and breaks a bone. Barring accidents though, it seems that the most likely candidate would be Dawn because of her fragile mental state.
So let’s assume that Cochran is voted out. Let’s assume Dawn is evacuated. That leaves Erik, Eddie, and Sherri. Erik and Sherri can claim that they were ‘true to their alliance’. When they voted against alliance members, they had to, to save themselves. Eddie can point out that his head was on the chopping block vote after vote, and he still made it to the end. One might say that that’s only because no one would vote for him, and they had other players that had to go. They can say he’s there only by luck. But people like an underdog, and they might not be willing to to vote for members of their alliance who stabbed them in the back. I’m sure he has Reynold’s vote, at least.
What if the evacuation happens before the first TC? What if, against all odds, Cochran wins the final immunity? Then it will be Cochran and three others. His only real threat is Eddie, so I think he’d vote Eddie out. I think he’d win, going up against Dawn or Erik or Sherri.