Survivor: December 9th - Down to the Final Four!

Cafe Society
1

Okay people, this is it.
Tonight they’ll be eliminating another person, and we’ll be left with the Final Four.
Who will is be?

We have (alphabetically): Chris, Eliza, Julia, Scout and Twila.
Chris and Eliza are both playing pretty good games. Chris is sitting back and letting the girls fight among themselves.
Anything involving endurance (like that final Immunity Challenge) or swimming means Scout is out.
From the previews, it looks like they might do one of those ICs where they do little bits of challenges from all the challenges throughout the season, which means endurance; again, Scout doesn’t stand a chance.
Julia still registers a big “Who?” on my radar.
The girls look like they’re turning on each other, and any one of them might decide to take Chris to the F2, depending on who wins that final IC.

Show Alert!
The Survivor Finale is on this Sunday!

2

And I have no idea why I called her “Julia” in my OP.
I know it’s “Julie.”
:smack:

3

Julie’s been doing the “fly under the radar” thing, which is annoying the hell out of me, and I seriously hope that the other tribe members and the jury don’t give her a million dollars for doing nothing.

I think if Scout and Twila are smart, they should grab Chris and vote off the younguns. Chris has to realize that when it comes time for challenges, he’s got a much better chance of beating Scout and Twila than Eliza and Julie.

4

Got another commitment tonight, so I will be taping it again.

I will check the thread when I get home to see if its worth staying up late to watch this episode.

5

Actually, Julie’s been doing a bit more than nothing. When she got shipped off to the guys’ island, she stripped down to… well, nothing, and as a result didn’t get voted off… she’s been Chris’s insider on the girls’ team, feeding him information, and also bear in mind that several people have won this game by flying completely under the radar and seeming to do nothing at all… as it stands, if Julie and Eliza make it to the final two, Julie’s got all four votes currently on the jury.

So, unless by some miracle Scout wins the next two immunities, Scout’s probably out, and she’ll vote for Chris.

If Chris gets voted off, he’ll vote for either Eliza or Julie.

Twyla would vote for Scout or Chris.

Eliza would vote for Chris or Julie.

Julie would vote for Eliza or Chris.

Assuming Chris can make it to the final vote, he’s looking pretty solid.

6

One thing she hasn’t been doing is pissing anyone off, and that’s important.

Yeah, I can see that happening. Chris definitely has Sarge and Chad’s votes, too.
Ami wouldn’t vote for Chris, no matter what.

7

I can think of one possible scenario: If it was Chris vs. Scout for F2. No love lost between Scout and Ami, I don’t think.

8

Definitely no love lost between Twila and Ami, either. Chris’s best chance is a final two of him and Twila. The guys will vote for him. Ami is 50/50 on that F2. Leann would probably vote for Chris over Twila. Eliza dislikes Twila intensely.

If I were Chris, I would definitely be bringing Twila to the final Tribal Council.

9

Wow, well, I haven’t posted to a SURVIVOR thread since last season, but tonight’s episode drove me absolutely bonkers, so I’m here to say:

What in the name of heaven was Chris thinking tonight? He couldn’t possibly have made a stupider move. Vote off Twila tonight, and you are basically guaranteed a spot in the Final Two if you’re Chris. Next week, you, Eliza, and Scout simply join to boot Julie. That leaves Eliza, Chris, and a 60-year-old woman with a bad knee to compete in a PHYSICAL ENDURANCE challenge for immunity. Had Chris remained true to Eliza instead of screwing her over, she would have taken him had she won. There would have been no scenario in which Chris doesn’t end up in the final two, with either Eliza or Scout (either of whom he probably beats), if he votes out Twila tonight.

Instead, look what he actually did. By voting out Julie, he is very obviously throwing his lot in with Scout and Twila, and against Eliza. Fine, OK, great. So if Scout, Twila, or Chris wins immunity next week, then, fine, you vote out Eliza. That gets him to the final three, where he MUST win immunity (as opposed to the previous scenario, in which Chris would have gone to the final two as long as Scout DIDN’T win the last challenge), as Twila would take Scout and Scout would take Twila. Even if Chris does sit on the final two with, say, Twila, he’ll have a harder time winning - Eliza and Julie, who he screwed over for no real reason, will be angry at him and less likely to give him their votes than if he had played it the way I suggest in the previous paragraph.

AND, all that leaves aside the distinct, definite possibility that Eliza, who is frankly the most impressive physical competitor left in the game at this point, wins immunity at the next challenge. If that happens, Chris is gone, period, done, end of sentence. Eliza would have no reason to risk a tie vote to save someone who just got finished removing his knife from her back.

So, in the end, Chris sacrifices a 99% chance at final two for, let’s say, a 33% chance of final two, a 33% chance of finishing third, and a 33% chance of being the first of the final four to hit the skids.

I. Don’t. Get. It.

10

I’m not sure I see it that way. If they had voted off Twila, then Chris/Eliza/Julie would have booted Scout next because they wouldn’t want to go against her in the F2. Then, the closeness between Eliza and Julie would mutate into an alliance and Chris would have a 1/3 chance of winning the final immunity. As it stands, he can get Scout and Twila to boot off Eliza and have a 1/2 chance (Scout would bow out of what will obviously be an endurance challenge). Or he could go with Eliza, boot Twila, and have AT LEAST a 2/3 shot at getting to the F2, if not 2/2.

That’s how I see it, anyway.

11

My take on it is that Chris would have had roughly the same chances either way. Twila and Scout will merge into a tight alliance once Eliza is gone, yes. But so would Eliza and Julie have. Scout is a bum competitor for any challenge, so he actually has an advantage if he keeps the Scout/Twila grouping in, since assuming either Eliza or Twila goes next TC, the 1/3 chance become a 1/2 because Scout simply isn’t a factor in any kind of physical challenge.

12

See, but, if Chris had voted off Twila tonight, there’s no reason he would have to go with Eliza/Julie to vote off Scout next. Eliza would have voted whatever Chris wanted, had he stayed loyal to her - notice how Eliza basically told Julie that she would only vote for Twila if Chris was OK with it. There would have been no reason to get rid of Scout at F4, because Scout has zero realistic chance of winning the endurance immunity. If Eliza and Chris don’t want to go against her in F2, they wouldn’t have had to - one of them would have won immunity at F3, and chosen the other. Eliza/Chris could have just gotten rid of Julie next council; Scout would have gone along with it, because really, what other choice would she have had? Boom - instant Chris and Eliza final two.

Chris’ best chance at a guaranteed Final Two would have been an F3 of him, Eliza, and Scout. He could have guaranteed that by getting rid of Twila now. He didn’t, so now we’ll see how things work out for him. If Eliza wins immunity next challenge, I really think he’s hosed.

13

Chris is playing to win, not just make it to F2. After Eliza’s last couple TC performances, it’s obvious that she would have Ami, Julie, and Leann as solid votes for the million bucks. If he betrays Scout and Twila to take Eliza to F2, there’s a very good chance either or both of them will swing to Eliza in a final vote. On the other hand, against Twila or Scout in the F2, he stands a very good chance of getting the women’s votes he needs to win.

Plus, he has to get to F2 to win, and the only guarantee on that is to win final immunity. Assuming it’s endurance, he’ll do well against the old ladies, but not Eliza. He also can’t be real comfortable hoping that Eliza wins F3 immunity and takes him along to F2, since she’ll have to know that she’s a lock to win against Scout or Twila, but not necessarily against Chris.

Chris is in trouble if Eliza wins immunity at F4, but other than that, he’s positioned himself very well.

14

Yep. He had a tough choice to make tonight (especially given his IQ), but this does make a certain amount of sense. He’s hoping he’ll end up with either Scout or Twila, and would probably win against either.

15

Regardless of what anyone things, I would hedge to bet that Chris knows better than any of us. What we’re seeing is a very manipulated hour of television that can’t even begin to summarize the events of three days.

16

Regardless of what anyone thinks, I would hedge to bet that Chris knows better than any of us. What we’re seeing is a very manipulated hour of television that can’t even begin to summarize the events of three days.*

17

What about Scout? I’ve watched every season except Marquesas, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Survivor contestant who’s done less than Scout.

She’s been pretty worthless in the challenges since Day 1. She would have lost the first IC for the women were it not for Chris’s incredible failure on the balance beam. When she took the leadership position in another challenge (directing her blindfolded teammates in collecting those giant puzzle pieces), she goofed by overlooking one of their puzzle pieces until Probst pointed it out to her. Lately, she’s not even trying to win a challenge. As the others burst forward from the starting line, she starts hobbling toward the nearest bench. (an exaggeration, I know) I realize she’s unable to physically compete with the others, but that’s part of the game!

As far as strategizing, well she’s mainly either stuck with her alliance or switched to a new one when someone else (like Chris and Eliza last week) initiated the plan. Scout has hardly been a ‘player’ when it comes to strategy. Julie’s had to do far more to get this far–winning over the guys and Twila (temporarily) when the tribes were mixed is one example.

When Probst asked at tribal council, “Is there anyone here who doesn’t deserve to be in the final five?” I was shouting at my TV screen, “SCOUT! Scout doesn’t deserve it! She hasn’t done jack-s**t!”

18

I hate Twila and I’m sorry she wasn’t voted off tonight. Her accent and bad grammar irritates the hell out of me. I’m glad Eliza is still around because I like her face. She looks like a human Raggedy Ann.

19

I know this situation has happened before.
If Twila and Julie had any sense, they would have looked at each other and realized that Chris was playing them both, and decided between themselves (and with either Scout and Eliza, of course) and voted him off last night.

Not that I want that to happen; I like Chris, but it was funny to see Julie and Twila both sweating it out (over being in the F2), when all they had to was get together with each other and either Scout or Eliza, and they’d have enough votes to boot him off the island.

20

Er, I mean being in the Final Four.