Wait…does that make her an anti-solipsist?
No matter what we think of Amber’s personality and abilities, I must say Rob was correct in saying she is “smokin’ hawt!”
So Shane the Schizo goes apeshit and rattles on how he wants to be voted off, he misses his kid, he wants a cigarette, yadda yadda yadda–and Aras-hole talks him out of it! Why exactly do they want to keep him, again? 
In honor of Cirie, the tribe should be renamed Casaba. And why did they vote out Melinda instead of her? Cirie is worse than useless!
In the RC, when Jeff mentioned the box of leaves, I so badly wanted a reaction shot of Cirie just to see her faint or crap her pants or something!
Leaves…why did it have to be leaves?
Probably because they had already arranged to be in a 4 person alliance with him, and without him they would be weaker?
Am I the only one that thinks making tight four person alliances this early is going to eventually bite everyone involved in the ass?
I wish they’d kept the four-person tribes. Pagonging is going to be the death of this show.
Nope, I thought the same thing. Which, of course, is why they showed it to us. I’m hoping Shane or Aras makes a huge mistake in the RC and/or the IC next week and everyone else realizes that he just needs to go.
Just because I don’t watch it doesn’t mean it isn’t good… umm yes it does. :eek:
Umm…no…I’d have to say the complete opposite. The fact is that this is a game about voting and having a majority. So in a seven member team, you’ve got four people who were smart and formed an alliance first and three people who missed the boat and are going to be voted out.
That said, the Casaba alliance (“our motto: four heads without a brain”) forgot that you need a secondary alliance to wrap around your core alliance. A strong four member alliance is undefeatable in a seven member tribe. But after the merge, you’re in a ten member tribe and you need six people in your alliance to be safe. The Casabas have put Cerie, Bobby, and Bruce in the same position Paschal, Neleh, and Lil were in on previous seasons - they’re getting so little loyalty from their initial tribe they’ll be ripe for conversion to a new tribe after a merge.
So forming a four way alliance was very smart. Telling the other players you had formed a four way alliance was very stupid.
And what happened to those four? They got bit in the ass.
It happened to Ami’s Womyn Alliance.
It happened to Judd, Stephenie and Rafe
Then look at some of the winners…
Sandra, Vecepia, Brian. No solid alliance to speak of, but good ol’ strategery.
Creating an alliance this early will only lead to paranoia, backstabbing and the minority folks to take the advantage. Save this post.
The four way alliance in Africa (Ethan, Kelly, Lex, and Tom) also broke up. And they all did for the same reason; the people inside the alliance got stupid and betrayed one of their own. What I said was a strong four way alliance can’t be defeated in a seven member tribe - however not every four way alliance is strong.
They all had alliances. Sandra had an alliance with Rupert and Crista. Vecepia was part of an alliance (which she betrayed as soon as it was profitable). And Brian was the master of alliances - he got four other players on his tribe to ally with him personally while keeping them from allying to each other.
Wrong reality show.
That one dissolved because of Lex’s paranioa!
The problem with alliances is, that at the end game, everyone starts looking at final two matchups.
Right about that time, there are two or three outsider players who, in an effort to survive, offer to bring along one or two alliance members who would benefit by a betrayal. It usually works because the outsiders are generally weaker players (the non-alliance physical threats having been already dispatched).
So I’d argue that a strong four person alliance gets you past the merge and into the later rounds, but once you are down to about 7, you need to be ready to make a move.
Exactly. Which is why Aras deserves to be booted out of the alliance and replaced with either the karate dude or the strong black dude. BUT they need to work like hell to win the remaining challenges because there is a huge advantage going in to a merge with the majority. Telling Cirie that she was the next to go was not only mean, but it gave her incentive to actually throw challenges to sabotage her own team.
Betraying an ally to form a new alliance is almost always a mistake. Because there’s no such thing a little betrayal - do it once and nobody will ever be able to trust anybody again.
Let’s say that Andy, Barb, Chuck, and Donna have an alliance. They may not like each other but as long as they can trust that they’ll vote together, the alliance works to all their advantage.
But suppose they decide Donna’s a knucklehead and vote her out. Neither Andy, nor Barb, nor Chuck might have any plan for betraying the other two. But how can any of them really trust the other two now? All it takes is for Eddie to whisper in somebody’s ear, “Those other two are going to betray you just like they betrayed Donna”, and that somebody’s going to think, “Maybe Eddie’s right. We did stab Donna in the back and she never suspected a thing until tribal council. I trust the other two but Donna trusted us too.” Eventually somebody decides they’re better off playing if safe and betraying an ally before they get betrayed by an ally.
I agree, Nemo, except Aras has already betrayed his alliance by marching in and blowing their cover. They already don’t trust him. If the remaining three get together and decide WHO to invite into their foursome, they can maintain the trust. PLUS it might give some assurance to the remaining minority member that an alliance doesn’t exist at all.
The important thing for them to do now is to enter the merge with a majority AND to somehow assuage the minority members. I can envision them going to BOTH minority members and inviting them into their pseudo-alliance. Somehow twist it to make it seem like it was their idea to oust Aras. That way, they will not feel compelled to betray them as soon as the merge takes place.
Of course, this is all dependent on Burnett & Co. keeping the same format. I think a tribe switch is definitely in order. It becomes a snooze-fest when a solid 4-block alliance picks off the minority members one by one.
Yeah, I know, they’ll eventually have to merge at some point, but you never know when. They could change it this time around. Don’t count your alliance members before they’re merged - or something like that.
Telling everybody else about the alliance was stupid but it wasn’t a betrayal. Aras never promised he would keep the alliance a secret (notice that Terry, on the other hand, was smart enough to make that one of the terms of the agreement).
While it’s not a “betrayal” in the strictest sense, it is very stupid and it’s going to bite all four of them come merge time, mark my words.