Swing state polling and the electoral college map

New ad targeting Arizona by contrasting Trump and Biden commenting on John McCain…

I believe McCain was widely admired in Arizona, and I don’t see how anyone who admired John McCain could see this and vote Trump.

Trump carried Arizona by almost 4% in 2016 even after saying that he didn’t respect McCain because he’d been captured.

But at least some of those voters feel worse about it now with McCain’s passing.

Also those moderate voters were quite often voting against Hillary more than for Trump. There will hopefully be enough to feel better about Biden.

There is a core of pro-Wall voters that will still support Trump, but Biden needs to a smallish percentage to take Arizona and it looks like he might. PArt of the reason is Trump’s insults towards McCain even after his death.

PA is close but still relatively stable. It could get a little closer toward the day of the election, though.

I’m more concerned about Arizona, which was once pretty strongly trending toward Biden but now seems to be backsliding toward a tight race and possibly even in Trump’s favor.

Right now, my current projected EV model has Biden winning 290-248, which includes Arizona. If he loses AZ, then that puts the race to within 10 electoral votes according to my projections - which definitely brings a contested election into play.

I can’t emphasize this enough: winning close may not be enough; it’s important that Biden and Democrats win decisively. I don’t know if I see that happening.

Dang, some polls from Survey Monkey came out today, and Nevada dropped from +5.8 Biden to +2.5 Biden. I don’t reckon it’ll stay that close, but with very little state-level polling in Nevada in the past few months, this D- pollster apparently carries some weight in the formula.

In my view, Biden is making the same mistakes with Latino voters that Hillary Clinton made with black voters in 2016, taking them for granted. Nevada should be considered part of the Democratic blue wall, but if Biden doesn’t give Latino voters and voters in general there enough love, it could become the shocker of the race, much like Michigan and PA were for Trump in 2016.

I also wonder what impact virus fatigue is having in some places and whether or not that dynamic actually favors Trump, as counter-intuitive as that might seem. But Vegas has been devastated economically by COVID-19 and we could be reaching the point at which voters are more concerned with getting back to work and earning a paycheck than they are running from a virus with a fatality rate of less than 1%. Biden and Democrats have invested a lot of their campaign into Trump’s failed response, but I could actually see how this might backfire with some constituents.

I was just about to point this out. Nevada and Arizona are both tightening. This makes North Carolina and Pennsylvania all the more important. (I ignore Florida, since it’s a quagmire of disappointment.)

Speaking of which…

I don’t think it’s the EV total that needs to be decisive so much as the vote totals in the key battleground states, so that Biden has a buffer even if Trump succeeds in having some of the ballots excluded in the numerous post-election legal challenges he’s going to mount.

I don’t know if that’s going to happen.

I would have thought that more Americans would have been fed up with all the obvious lying by now, but I guess not.

Politico has a really interesting piece today:

Demographic Change Since 2016 Alone Could Be Enough to Defeat Trump

A new interactive collaboration by NBC News and the Cook Political Report finds that if 2016’s turnout and support rates were applied to 2020’s new demographic realities, Trump would narrowly lose Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — more than enough to swing the presidency to Joe Biden. And, Trump would lose the popular vote by about four points, roughly double his 2016 deficit.

They’ve also built an interactive tool they call the Swingometer that lets you adjust various demographic vote percentages to see how the results would play across the electoral map. Very illuminating. Their proposed scenario #3 (Biden 290 EVs, Trump 248) is basically how I see the election playing out.

I saw one report demonstrating that demographics had changed quickly enough that if the '16 election had been re-run just a year later, with every demographic voting in the exact same patterns and rates, that H. Clinton would have won. Now, that’s surely an unrealistic scenario, demographic voting patterns evolve, see Donald’s small inroads into the Hispanic vote and the younger black male vote.

But in the bigger picture, the youth vote, large in '18 and with another eight or nine million eligible reinforcements since, continues to vote against Trump by a 2-to-1 margin and there are further defections in suburban women and white college educated voters. Trump may pull off another inside straight but it’s the Biden candidacy with by far the greater upside.

This is the second straight “Flight 93” election for the GOP with said demographics and their own record of poor governance working against them. But because of the demonstrated awfulness of DJT, this has now become a Flight 93 election for Dems, too. If they recognize it in the same ratios as the other side does, they will win going away because of their inherent numerical superiority.

Preach it! Now we all gotta turn out and VOTE. Vote like this great republic depends on it, because it so very obviously does.

Texas is not flipping this cycle and I’m extremely sceptical of Biden carrying Georgia.

Iowa with their incumbent GOP senator in trouble in the polls has me optimistic though. Any state Obama carried twice ought to be the focus. I’d love nothing more than a electoral blowout to finish Trump off, but just hit 270. 538 to play for but 270 to win. Can expand the map in coming years.

Trump has been through an impeachment, a completely mishandled pandemic, and an unfolding economic crisis. He threatens to rig the election and is openly undermining the postal system to do it.

And his approval rating is pretty much right where it’s always been.

I don’t know if it’s a matter of Trump can do no wrong, as much as it is, voters in this country can do no right.

And just like that, the Nevada polls are back showing Biden up by 6.9%. And all the Nevada Survey Monkey polls have been disappeared.

Watch the monkey get ghosted, monkey

A FoxNews poll conducted Sept 20 -23 has Biden at 50% or better in NV, OH, PA.

The virus is killing Trump.

That latest Fox poll just made Ohio go light blue on 538’s state ribbon thing. Maybe it will flip colors on the next poll but it’s sure a a cheery color right now.