I believe Trump’s team is just being shrewd here. They are saving up money for a kick in the last three weeks of the race. By that time they will have a better idea where to target ads most effectively. I also believe the poster who mentioned he could go on FOX News any time he wants between now and then but his internal polling will help him hyper focus advertising on the markets (or perhaps even districts) which will do him the most good
As long as he is within striking distance very shortly before election day (and yes, many of us will have voted by then) he can really leverage spending by letting the numbers direct his strategy. Remember, like all con men he will use information the mark (or undecided voter) doesn’t know he has access to.
Also I, as well as several family members are receiving multiple contacts a day from the Trump campaign. They are usually poised as opinion polls or issue priority calls/texts/mailings/etc., but they are all solicitations for money and offers to arrange for a mail-in ballot. They are pretty desperate if they are targeting me!
(Funny how Trump is always questioning mail-in voting but making intense and repeated efforts to get those same ballots into registered R hands. I just hope my fellow Republicans can see through him as well as I can.)
Just one more point - in 2016 Trump was running against the reviled (to many) Hillary, and Comey dropped the investigation bomb just a few weeks before the election. Neither of these are factors working in Trump’s favor this time.
Yes, I’m sure Trump and Barr have some crap-nonsense cooked up re:Biden, to try to repeat the Comey bomb. But let’s hope that within the constant 24/7/365 Trump chaos tornado, it ends up being a fart in a hurricane.
As has been noted by multiple posters elsewhere, the most likely action by Trump/Barr will be a report on or indictment of Hunter Biden for dealings in Ukraine. The second most likely will be results of the investigation into the supposed spying on Trump in 2016 by the Obama Administration. It’s possible both of these will drop 2-3 weeks out from Election Day in an effort to replicate the impact of Comey’s reopening of the investigation of Clinton.
The latest from 538 and how some of the swing states are swinging.
Good news for Biden in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona. The bad news is in Florida. I’m surprised they don’t mention Pennsylvania in that article. The article states Arizona is the cornerstone for electoral college maps for Biden. I disagree with that analysis. I think PA is the keystone state .
If Biden wins WI, MI, MN, and AZ, but loses PA, FL, NC, and OH, things will be very tight. In that scenario the race would come down to the Nebraska and Maine congressional districts. 270-268 for Biden if he carries all of Maine and loses all of Nebraska. A tie if he loses Maine’s 2nd congressional district. Too close for comfort either way, and demonstrating that PA and it’s 20 EVis the key to this race, not AZ and it’s 11.
But then the good news is that Bloomberg has committed to dropping $100 million Florida for Biden, in Spanish language markets I believe. So even if Biden’s looking shaky in Florida now, he can commit advertising resources to other states like PA and AZ and NC.
Since this is the thread about swing state polling and Texas is a swing state this year, I thought I’d share an anecdote. I just got off the phone with a pollster from Quinnipiac. I told them I was supporting Biden and MJ Hegar and that I would definitely be voting . It’s my first time ever getting a call from a pollster, so I’m a bit excited .
I’m not completely sure I understand those Arizona / Monmouth lines. There are two lines with the same date range, both over 420 likely voters (there’s another line with 420 registered voters, but ignoring that for now) with different results. Did Monmouth really perform two parallel polls of likely voters over the same dates in the same state?
Apparently he can. The FEC allows The use private campaign funds pay legal bills arising from being a candidate or elected official. Which is pretty broad and sure to be interpreted in Trumps favor. Almost 60 mil to date.
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. It’s my first time ever getting a call from a pollster, so I’m a bit excited 
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