Swing state polling and the electoral college map

I believe Trump’s team is just being shrewd here. They are saving up money for a kick in the last three weeks of the race. By that time they will have a better idea where to target ads most effectively. I also believe the poster who mentioned he could go on FOX News any time he wants between now and then but his internal polling will help him hyper focus advertising on the markets (or perhaps even districts) which will do him the most good

As long as he is within striking distance very shortly before election day (and yes, many of us will have voted by then) he can really leverage spending by letting the numbers direct his strategy. Remember, like all con men he will use information the mark (or undecided voter) doesn’t know he has access to.

Also I, as well as several family members are receiving multiple contacts a day from the Trump campaign. They are usually poised as opinion polls or issue priority calls/texts/mailings/etc., but they are all solicitations for money and offers to arrange for a mail-in ballot. They are pretty desperate if they are targeting me!
(Funny how Trump is always questioning mail-in voting but making intense and repeated efforts to get those same ballots into registered R hands. I just hope my fellow Republicans can see through him as well as I can.)

And Sanders is 79. It seems age only matters when foes want it to. Biden is clearly more agile and in better health - mental and physical-than trump.

Generally speaking, yes, that’s true.

Just one more point - in 2016 Trump was running against the reviled (to many) Hillary, and Comey dropped the investigation bomb just a few weeks before the election. Neither of these are factors working in Trump’s favor this time.

Yes, I’m sure Trump and Barr have some crap-nonsense cooked up re:Biden, to try to repeat the Comey bomb. But let’s hope that within the constant 24/7/365 Trump chaos tornado, it ends up being a fart in a hurricane.

As has been noted by multiple posters elsewhere, the most likely action by Trump/Barr will be a report on or indictment of Hunter Biden for dealings in Ukraine. The second most likely will be results of the investigation into the supposed spying on Trump in 2016 by the Obama Administration. It’s possible both of these will drop 2-3 weeks out from Election Day in an effort to replicate the impact of Comey’s reopening of the investigation of Clinton.

The latest from 538 and how some of the swing states are swinging.

Good news for Biden in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona. The bad news is in Florida. I’m surprised they don’t mention Pennsylvania in that article. The article states Arizona is the cornerstone for electoral college maps for Biden. I disagree with that analysis. I think PA is the keystone state :wink:.

If Biden wins WI, MI, MN, and AZ, but loses PA, FL, NC, and OH, things will be very tight. In that scenario the race would come down to the Nebraska and Maine congressional districts. 270-268 for Biden if he carries all of Maine and loses all of Nebraska. A tie if he loses Maine’s 2nd congressional district. Too close for comfort either way, and demonstrating that PA and it’s 20 EVis the key to this race, not AZ and it’s 11.

ISWYDT.

But then the good news is that Bloomberg has committed to dropping $100 million Florida for Biden, in Spanish language markets I believe. So even if Biden’s looking shaky in Florida now, he can commit advertising resources to other states like PA and AZ and NC.

Since this is the thread about swing state polling and Texas is a swing state this year, I thought I’d share an anecdote. I just got off the phone with a pollster from Quinnipiac. I told them I was supporting Biden and MJ Hegar and that I would definitely be voting :smiley:. It’s my first time ever getting a call from a pollster, so I’m a bit excited :joy:.

Joe Biden in Scranton, PA tonight making a play for that swing state.

“This election is Scranton versus Park Avenue.”
“All that Trump can see from Park Avenue is Wall Street. All he thinks about is the stock market.”

You go, Joe!

This week’s polls. Six weeks to go. September swing state confidence pool thread coming later today.

State Dates Pollster Sample D R Net
Alabama 8/17/2020 - 8/19/2020 The Tyson Group 600 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% Donald Trump 48% R + 4%
Arizona 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 Kaiser Family Foundation 1298 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 40% D + 5%
Arizona 9/10/2020 - 9/15/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 653 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 40% D + 9%
Arizona 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 Monmouth University 420 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 44% D + 4%
Arizona 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 Monmouth University 420 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 46% D + 2%
Arizona 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 Monmouth University 420 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 47% Even
Arizona 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 855 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 42% D + 5%
California 8/22/2020 - 8/24/2020 David Binder Research 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% Donald Trump 31% D + 30%
California 9/4/2020 - 9/13/2020 Public Policy Institute of California 1168 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% Donald Trump 31% D + 29%
Florida 8/11/2020 - 8/15/2020 The Tyson Group 750 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 44% D + 2%
Florida 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 Kaiser Family Foundation 1009 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% Donald Trump 42% D + 1%
Florida 9/12/2020 - 9/14/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1158 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 44% D + 3%
Florida 9/15/2020 - 9/18/2020 YouGov 1205 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 46% D + 2%
Georgia 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 46% R + 1%
Georgia 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 GBAO 600 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 46% D + 3%
Georgia 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 University of Georgia 1150 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 47% R + 0%
Iowa 9/14/2020 - 9/17/2020 Selzer & Co. 658 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 47% Even
Kentucky 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 Quinnipiac University 1164 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% Donald Trump 58% R + 20%
Louisiana 9/2/2020 - 9/5/2020 The Tyson Group 600 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% Donald Trump 48% R + 6%
Maine 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 Quinnipiac University 1183 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% Donald Trump 38% D + 21%
Maine 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 663 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% Donald Trump 38% D + 17%
Maine 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Suffolk University 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 39% D + 12%
Maine 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Suffolk University 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 39% D + 12%
Maine CD-1 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 Quinnipiac University 707 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% Donald Trump 32% D + 32%
Maine CD-1 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Suffolk University 267 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% Donald Trump 33% D + 22%
Maine CD-1 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Suffolk University 267 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% Donald Trump 34% D + 22%
Maine CD-2 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 Quinnipiac University 476 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% Donald Trump 44% D + 9%
Maine CD-2 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 440 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 45% D + 2%
Maine CD-2 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Suffolk University 233 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 45% D + 1%
Maine CD-2 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Suffolk University 233 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 45% D + 1%
Michigan 9/12/2020 - 9/14/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 930 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 39% D + 10%
Michigan 9/10/2020 - 9/15/2020 EPIC-MRA 600 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 40% D + 8%
Michigan 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 Civiqs 517 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% Donald Trump 42% D + 11%
Michigan 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) 600 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 41% D + 5%
Minnesota 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 705 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% Donald Trump 40% D + 17%
Minnesota 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 615 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% Donald Trump 41% D + 16%
Minnesota 9/12/2020 - 9/17/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 718 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 42% D + 9%
Mississippi 8/28/2020 - 8/30/2020 The Tyson Group 600 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% Donald Trump 50% R + 10%
Missouri 9/16/2020 - 9/17/2020 Remington Research Group 1046 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 53% R + 8%
Montana 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 625 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% Donald Trump 49% R + 7%
Nebraska CD-2 7/27/2020 - 7/29/2020 Global Strategy Group 400 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 44% D + 7%
Nebraska CD-2 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 Global Strategy Group 400 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 45% D + 6%
North Carolina 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 Kaiser Family Foundation 1172 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 43% D + 2%
North Carolina 9/11/2020 - 9/14/2020 Suffolk University 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 43% D + 3%
North Carolina 9/11/2020 - 9/14/2020 Suffolk University 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 43% D + 4%
North Carolina 9/12/2020 - 9/15/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1092 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 45% D + 2%
North Carolina 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 653 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 44% D + 1%
North Carolina 9/16/2020 - 9/18/2020 Emerson College 717 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 49% D + 2%
Ohio 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 Civiqs 556 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 48% R + 3%
Pennsylvania 9/8/2020 - 9/11/2020 Climate Nexus 659 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 43% D + 5%
Pennsylvania 9/12/2020 - 9/14/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1036 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 44% D + 5%
Pennsylvania 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 Civiqs 549 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 45% D + 7%
Pennsylvania 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Ipsos 611 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 46% D + 3%
Pennsylvania 9/15/2020 - 9/17/2020 Trafalgar Group 1006 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 45% D + 2%
South Carolina 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 Quinnipiac University 969 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 51% R + 6%
South Carolina 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 Morning Consult 764 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% Donald Trump 50% R + 6%
Texas 8/20/2020 - 8/25/2020 The Tyson Group 906 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 44% D + 4%
Texas 9/15/2020 - 9/18/2020 YouGov 1140 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 48% R + 2%
Utah 9/7/2020 - 9/12/2020 RMG Research 1000 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% Donald Trump 53% R + 18%
Vermont 9/3/2020 - 9/15/2020 Braun Research 586 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% Donald Trump 32% D + 23%
Washington 9/8/2020 - 9/14/2020 Strategies 360 501 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% Donald Trump 36% D + 22%
Wisconsin 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 702 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 46% D + 4%
Wisconsin 9/8/2020 - 9/13/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 605 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 46% D + 6%
Wisconsin 9/5/2020 - 9/14/2020 Morning Consult 809 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 42% D + 9%
Wisconsin 9/6/2020 - 9/15/2020 Morning Consult 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 42% D + 9%
Wisconsin 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 Civiqs 704 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 44% D + 7%
Wisconsin 9/7/2020 - 9/16/2020 Morning Consult 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 42% D + 9%
Wisconsin 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Ipsos 609 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 43% D + 5%
Wisconsin 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 636 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 41% D + 6%

Source

Thanks. Other than Ohio, lookin’ good for Joe!

I can’t find a link, but ABC News reports that Cindy McCain will formally endorse Biden. Can’t hurt in AZ

Brian

Right you are: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/22/politics/joe-biden-cindy-mccain-endorse/index.html

I’m not completely sure I understand those Arizona / Monmouth lines. There are two lines with the same date range, both over 420 likely voters (there’s another line with 420 registered voters, but ignoring that for now) with different results. Did Monmouth really perform two parallel polls of likely voters over the same dates in the same state?

They are two different turnout models. High turnout and low turnout. Low turnout is the one that’s better for Trump.

Full published poll results.

Thanks!

PA is getting a little too close for my comfort. Pretty good picture overall though.

Apparently he can. The FEC allows The use private campaign funds pay legal bills arising from being a candidate or elected official. Which is pretty broad and sure to be interpreted in Trumps favor. Almost 60 mil to date.

This article is old, but it has some interesting information on how Trump donors paid his lawyers for the Russia probe.

ETA- I MEAN’T to read the whole thread before responding, really. But I typed it then got distracted and accidentally sent it.