After all he’s done for it!
Senior voters flipping to Biden has been almost as surprising a development as the middle aged Gen Xers swinging more towards Trump. I kinda understand seniors seeing the threats to health and affordable health care (not to mention Social Security) by Donald’s dark minions but I don’t get the Gen Xers amenability to Trump even a little bit.
Good. But the Arizona tightening seems to be real, unfortunately.
Ref wiki Gen X is now age 40 to 55. That’s an age where you’re not staring at retirement, but you’re also well into the more cynical, perhaps apathetic middle age. e.g. “The world is too messed up for me to change; the best I can do is hope for no gross disasters affecting me personally.”
Being told Biden will triple your taxes, halve your stock portfolio, and crash the economy in a misguided attempt to stop this imaginary global warning thing while selling your kids’ futures to the Chinese might be persuasive to somebody with 2 kids in high school or college who hopes their part of the world holds together a little longer.
Never misundersestimate the power of wishful thinking. And the power of living in a propaganda bubble.
Another good sign is, ironically, Dewine’s popularity. I point this out because Dewine has, almost from the start, resisted Trump’s efforts to be a tool in Trump’s pandemic propaganda war. This doesn’t mean Biden will win, but it is a somewhat reassuring sign that Ohio, despite its rightward lurch in recent years, is still somewhat moderate and that Biden could win if he invests enough time, energy, and resources there.
Agreed, and it’s DeWine, BTW. Ohio is definitely winnable for Biden, and of course it will be in the spotlight this week with the presidential debate in Cleveland on Tuesday.
My favorite Biden ad, and it’s only ten seconds long: https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1307491919384260609
Nice, I like it.
Not swing state polls, but some new national polls from ABC News/Washington Post late tonight (FYI, 538 rates them an A+ pollster):
Biden +10 (889 RV) 53-43%
Biden +10 (1,008 A) 52-42%
Biden +10 (739 LV) 54-44%
When third-party candidates are added to the mix, Biden’s lead drops by 4 points:
Biden +6 (889 RV) 47-41-5-3%
Biden +6 (739 LV) 49-43-4-3%
Link: Between the economy and coronavirus pandemic, Biden keeps his advantage nationally: POLL - ABC News
Monkey, monkey, monkey
Don’t you know you’re going to ghost the monkey
Thanks, but national, shmational.
Heh. Like the old grade-school retort: “Is that a promise, or a threat?”
538 has Trump with a 70% chance of winning Texas. In contrast Biden has a 77% chance in Pennsylvania. Texas is definitely not in the bag for Trump, but I admit it will be a steep climb for Biden. But not as steep as Trump’s climb in the blue wall states, at least according Nate Silver.
National polls can say something. Once the national margin gets up to 7% or so, it is virtually impossible for Trump to win the EC. Nate Silver posted this chart a little while ago:
Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:
0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%
That’s true — good point.
I would say the same for both TX and GA. There’s no question that Dems are gaining ground in both states, but until you have a Democrat winning statewide office in one of these states, you have to assume that Trump’s base will probably help him prevail once again.
The good news is that Biden could come close enough - poll close enough - to force Trump’s campaign to defend his turf in these two states. Anything that forces Trump to divert resources, time, and energy from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to defend Georgia and Texas is a good thing.
Do we have a general campaign thread? I guess I’ll put this here…
Can I vote for Kate Bedingfield? She’s deputy campaign manger and communications director for the Biden campaign. Here’s what she had to say on Trump requesting that Biden pee in a cup before the debate…
Vice President Biden intends to deliver his debate answers in words. If the president thinks his best case is made in urine he can have at it. We’d expect nothing less from Donald Trump, who pissed away the chance to protect the lives of 200K Americans when he didn’t make a plan to stop COVID-19.
oops. nm
Trump diverting resources, time and energy from only two of OH, PA, WI and MI to defend GA and TX would be even better. I doubt they would divert from all four. The best result from any cockiness would be if they lost OH to the Ds. If that happens it is truly over.