Swing state polling and the electoral college map

Politics & Elections
361

Beautiful.

362

Some really, really, really good polls coming out of PA for Biden yesterday and today.

September 28: Sienna College/NYT (A+ pollster on 538) shows Biden up by 9 among likely voters.

September 29: ABC News/WP (another A+ pollster) also has Biden up by 9 among likelies, and up by 10 among registered voters.

363

Maybe this would be a good time to remind everyone of the scammiest* Trump scam of all, pee vitamins. If you sent The Donald $140 and a vial of your pee**, he’d put on his white coat and doctor up a month’s worth of vitamins designed just for you!

*Trump University was the most noxious scam, because he actually stole people’s life savings and ruined their lives for a few bucks. BTW- Don’t let anyone tell you Trump U was some licensing deal. Trump owned 80% of the venture.
But for sheer “jeez how stupid can stupid get” scam artistry, you can’t beat the pee vitamin. Seriously, at some point during the process of peeing into the vial, writing the check, putting them both in an envelope, writing Donald Trump’s name and address on the envelope and mailing it, wouldn’t you stop and think…why in the fuck am I sending my pee and a check to Donald Trump ? Maybe I should rethink this.

** Trump and pee, Trump and pee ——why is there such a godawful huge nexus between Trump and pee? Pee tapes, pee nightclubs, pee vitamins and now he wants Biden’s pee. Three guesses on Ivanka’s special skin care secret.

364

Well, why am I sending him a check, anyway?

365

If he’s not sending a check to the IRS, why shouldn’t you send a check to him?

366

Republican Voters Against Trump ad - starring Lindsey Graham (pre-2017)

367

Five freakin’ weeks. So many new polls.

State Dates Pollster Sample D R Net
Alaska 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 Harstad Strategic Research Inc. 602 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 47% R + 1%
Arizona 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Ipsos 565 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 46% D + 1%
Arizona 9/14/2020 - 9/17/2020 Data Orbital 550 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 47% D + 3%
Arizona 9/17/2020 - 9/19/2020 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 400 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% Donald Trump 42% D + 11%
Arizona 9/15/2020 - 9/20/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 701 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 47% D + 2%
Arizona 9/15/2020 - 9/20/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 579 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 49% R + 1%
Arizona 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 Change Research 262 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 43% D + 6%
Arizona 9/15/2020 - 9/22/2020 Data for Progress 481 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 46% R + 1%
Arizona 9/25/2020 - 9/28/2020 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 47% Even
California 9/9/2020 - 9/15/2020 University of California, Berkeley 5942 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 67% Donald Trump 28% D + 39%
California 9/19/2020 - 9/21/2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1885 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% Donald Trump 28% D + 34%
Florida 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Ipsos 586 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 47% Even
Florida 9/17/2020 - 9/19/2020 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 400 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 45% D + 6%
Florida 9/15/2020 - 9/20/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 765 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 47% D + 1%
Florida 9/15/2020 - 9/20/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 613 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 51% R + 4%
Florida 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 Change Research 702 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 46% D + 3%
Florida 9/15/2020 - 9/22/2020 Data for Progress 620 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 43% D + 3%
Florida 9/21/2020 - 9/22/2020 St. Pete Polls 2906 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 46% D + 3%
Florida 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 43% D + 3%
Georgia 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 45% Even
Georgia 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 46% Even
Georgia 9/16/2020 - 9/21/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 523 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 45% Even
Georgia 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 Monmouth University 402 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 47% R + 1%
Georgia 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 Monmouth University 402 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 48% R + 2%
Georgia 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 Monmouth University 402 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 50% R + 5%
Georgia 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 YouGov 1164 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 47% R + 1%
Georgia 9/23/2020 - 9/27/2020 Quinnipiac University 1125 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 47% D + 3%
Georgia 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 Civiqs 969 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 47% D + 3%
Illinois 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 Victory Research 1208 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% Donald Trump 40% D + 13%
Iowa 9/16/2020 - 9/22/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 501 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 42% D + 3%
Iowa 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 Monmouth University 402 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% Donald Trump 50% R + 6%
Iowa 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 Monmouth University 402 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 49% R + 3%
Iowa 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 Monmouth University 402 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 49% R + 3%
Kansas 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 883 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% Donald Trump 48% R + 6%
Kansas 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 883 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 49% R + 4%
Kentucky 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 807 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% Donald Trump 55% R + 20%
Kentucky 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 807 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% Donald Trump 56% R + 18%
Maine 9/17/2020 - 9/23/2020 Colby College 847 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 39% D + 11%
Maine CD-1 9/17/2020 - 9/23/2020 Colby College 416 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% Donald Trump 36% D + 18%
Maine CD-2 9/17/2020 - 9/23/2020 Colby College 425 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 43% D + 3%
Maryland 9/4/2020 - 9/11/2020 OpinionWorks 753 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% Donald Trump 30% D + 32%
Maryland 9/4/2020 - 9/11/2020 OpinionWorks 838 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% Donald Trump 29% D + 32%
Michigan 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 4344 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 47% D + 3%
Michigan 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 3744 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 47% D + 2%
Michigan 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Ipsos 637 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 44% D + 5%
Michigan 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 455 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 42% D + 6%
Michigan 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 Data for Progress 455 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 44% D + 6%
Michigan 9/17/2020 - 9/19/2020 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 400 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 45% D + 5%
Michigan 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 Change Research 568 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 43% D + 8%
Michigan 9/1/2020 - 9/21/2020 SurveyMonkey 1984 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% Donald Trump 43% D + 10%
Michigan 9/10/2020 - 9/21/2020 YouGov 737 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 42% D + 8%
Michigan 9/10/2020 - 9/21/2020 YouGov 641 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 45% D + 6%
Michigan 9/8/2020 - 9/22/2020 Baldwin Wallace University 1001 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 42% D + 8%
Michigan 9/20/2020 - 9/22/2020 Trafalgar Group 1015 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 47% R + 1%
Michigan 9/19/2020 - 9/23/2020 Marist College 1082 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 43% D + 9%
Michigan 9/19/2020 - 9/23/2020 Marist College 799 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 44% D + 8%
Minnesota 9/21/2020 - 9/23/2020 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 42% D + 6%
Minnesota 9/20/2020 - 9/24/2020 Suffolk University 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 40% D + 6%
Nebraska CD-2 9/25/2020 - 9/27/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 420 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 41% D + 7%
Nevada 9/15/2020 - 9/21/2020 ALG Research 800 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 43% D + 4%
Nevada 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 810 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 41% D + 11%
Nevada 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 911 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 40% D + 10%
Nevada 9/10/2020 - 9/25/2020 University of Nevada, Las Vegas 641 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 41% D + 5%
Nevada 9/23/2020 - 9/25/2020 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 750 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 48% D + 1%
New Hampshire 9/17/2020 - 9/25/2020 University of Massachusetts Lowell 657 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 44% D + 8%
New Hampshire 9/17/2020 - 9/25/2020 University of Massachusetts Lowell 657 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% Donald Trump 44% D + 9%
New Hampshire 9/23/2020 - 9/25/2020 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 850 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% Donald Trump 42% D + 14%
North Carolina 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 Ipsos 586 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 47% Even
North Carolina 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Harper Polling 612 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% Donald Trump 45% R + 1%
North Carolina 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 Change Research 579 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 46% D + 2%
North Carolina 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 Meredith College 705 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 45% D + 0%
North Carolina 9/18/2020 - 9/25/2020 University of Massachusetts Lowell 921 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 47% Even
North Carolina 9/18/2020 - 9/25/2020 University of Massachusetts Lowell 921 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 49% R + 1%
North Carolina 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 YouGov 1213 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 46% D + 2%
North Dakota 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 DFM Research 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 37% Donald Trump 56% R + 19%
Ohio 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 3694 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 51% R + 4%
Ohio 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 3220 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 50% R + 2%
Ohio 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 Quinnipiac University 1085 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 47% D + 1%
Ohio 9/8/2020 - 9/22/2020 Baldwin Wallace University 1011 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 44% D + 1%
Ohio 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 830 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 45% D + 5%
Ohio 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 907 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 44% D + 5%
Ohio 9/1/2020 - 9/25/2020 SurveyMonkey 3092 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 50% R + 2%
Oklahoma 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 Amber Integrated 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 33% Donald Trump 55% R + 22%
Pennsylvania 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 5771 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 47% D + 4%
Pennsylvania 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 4471 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 45% D + 7%
Pennsylvania 9/15/2020 - 9/17/2020 CPEC 820 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 45% D + 5%
Pennsylvania 9/17/2020 - 9/19/2020 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 400 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% Donald Trump 42% D + 11%
Pennsylvania 9/14/2020 - 9/20/2020 Franklin & Marshall College 625 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 40% D + 9%
Pennsylvania 9/14/2020 - 9/20/2020 Franklin & Marshall College 480 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 42% D + 6%
Pennsylvania 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 Change Research 579 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 45% D + 4%
Pennsylvania 9/1/2020 - 9/21/2020 SurveyMonkey 2714 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 45% D + 7%
Pennsylvania 9/10/2020 - 9/21/2020 YouGov 723 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 44% D + 5%
Pennsylvania 9/10/2020 - 9/21/2020 YouGov 642 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 45% D + 4%
Pennsylvania 9/18/2020 - 9/21/2020 Trafalgar Group 1006 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 46% D + 2%
Pennsylvania 9/8/2020 - 9/22/2020 Baldwin Wallace University 1012 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% Donald Trump 45% D + 3%
Pennsylvania 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 856 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 44% D + 7%
Pennsylvania 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research 910 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 43% D + 8%
Pennsylvania 9/21/2020 - 9/26/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 568 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% Donald Trump 45% D + 9%
Pennsylvania 9/21/2020 - 9/26/2020 ABC News/The Washington Post 702 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% Donald Trump 44% D + 10%
Pennsylvania 9/24/2020 - 9/26/2020 IBD/TIPP 909 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 44% D + 5%
Pennsylvania 9/24/2020 - 9/26/2020 IBD/TIPP 774 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 45% D + 5%
Pennsylvania 9/25/2020 - 9/27/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 711 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 40% D + 9%
South Carolina 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 YouGov 1080 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% Donald Trump 52% R + 10%
Texas 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 Quinnipiac University 1078 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 50% R + 5%
Texas 9/15/2020 - 9/22/2020 Data for Progress 726 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% Donald Trump 46% R + 1%
Texas 9/16/2020 - 9/22/2020 Siena College/The New York Times Upshot 653 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% Donald Trump 46% R + 3%
Texas 9/18/2020 - 9/25/2020 University of Massachusetts Lowell 882 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 49% R + 3%
Texas 9/18/2020 - 9/25/2020 University of Massachusetts Lowell 882 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% Donald Trump 50% R + 4%
Texas 9/25/2020 - 9/26/2020 Public Policy Polling 612 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 48% Even
Virginia 9/9/2020 - 9/21/2020 Christopher Newport University 796 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 43% D + 5%
Wisconsin 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 306 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 47% D + 2%
Wisconsin 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 SurveyMonkey 2409 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 49% R + 1%
Wisconsin 9/17/2020 - 9/19/2020 Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group 400 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 44% D + 7%
Wisconsin 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 Change Research 571 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 42% D + 9%
Wisconsin 9/1/2020 - 9/21/2020 SurveyMonkey 2366 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% Donald Trump 46% D + 6%
Wisconsin 9/10/2020 - 9/21/2020 YouGov 770 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% Donald Trump 44% D + 5%
Wisconsin 9/10/2020 - 9/21/2020 YouGov 664 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 46% D + 4%
Wisconsin 9/8/2020 - 9/22/2020 Baldwin Wallace University 863 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% Donald Trump 41% D + 9%
Wisconsin 9/20/2020 - 9/24/2020 Marist College 727 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% Donald Trump 44% D + 10%
Wisconsin 9/20/2020 - 9/24/2020 Marist College 951 RV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% Donald Trump 44% D + 8%
Wisconsin 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 Trafalgar Group 1189 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 45% D + 3%
Wisconsin 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. 500 LV Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% Donald Trump 46% D + 2%

Source

368

Another good RVAT ad featuring GOP veterans backing Biden.

369

Georgia’s ticked up a bit — now it’s basically the same as Ohio (50-50), according to the 538 model.

370

It’s only going to get worse. Despite that, there’s still states that never get polled. Although it is surprising that Alaska, California, Oklahoma, Illinois, South Carolina, and Kentucky showed up in the list. OK, they probably surveyed KY as a byproduct of polling the senate race there. And the Alaska results were surprisingly close. Obvously AK needs to be polled a bit more to see if that’s an outlier or truly representative.

371

Yeah those PA polls are huge. It will be hard for Trump to win without PA. Tom Ridge’s endorsement is a nice little bonus too.

Those PA polls together with the tax story and Trump’s poor first debate is pushing me in the direction of thinking he is done. There are perhaps one or two more big surprises left but they would have to be huge to change what is a remarkably stable race.

372

California is polled to get the current standing of the propositions on the ballot. There are several controversial ones. Polling for the presidential race is just added on.

373

Biden has finally cracked 80% on 538’s election simulation.

374

I think Biden has some momentum for now, but it could be temporary. He’s winning in most of the key battleground states, even if just by a hair. The more states that lean his way, the less likely it is Trump can pull off the needed sweep of those states, which is how he won in 2016.

375

That jibes well with my gut feeling. The chances of him actually being President in January 2021 are lower than that of course.

376
377

We got our mail in ballots today. New Jersey is sending them to everyone registered. Even free postage. Though I think I’ll find a drop box. They’re suppose to be setting these up.

378

Part of the improvement is their model leaving room for October surprises that can change the dynamic of the race. Even if polling remains the same, Biden’s odds will likely show improvement as Nov 3 approaches.

379

My rather unscientific methodology: I look at election history of past presidential elections and also results in statewide elections to figure which states lean Trump or Biden. I reverse the state’s lean if the polling average is 3% or greater (Ohio, for example, which leans red but is now showing Biden with a 3% lead). I’d probably feel more confident about reversing the lead if the difference were 5%, but I figure 3% is probably strong enough if we’re using poll averages).

With that being said, my current projection is: 298-240 Biden, which includes winning one of the districts in Nebraska (metro Omaha). I have Biden now winning in Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, and Michigan. I’m least confident about Ohio, which I see as a momentary dip in popularity for Trump.

I still have Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, Trump and the Democrats are within striking distance in the SE United States. The odds are somewhat long but it’s possible that Biden could win in NC, GA, and FL, and also Lindsey Graham could lose in SC. And if that happens, that would be a crushing defeat for Republicans - the kind of defeat that could lead to some real soul searching.

380

Check that: 309-229 Biden. For some reason, I accidentally had AZ red, but Biden, at this moment, is looking okay.