I believe that the 50-64 year old people are mostly the younger Boomers. Generation X overlaps a little, but it’s mostly people in their 40s.
Right, it’s mostly the older Gen X’ers and younger Boomers who are going for Covidfefe. And Gen X’ers are more likely to have “ok boomer” directed at them than be using it themselves.
The significance of Johnson is that he was polling as high as 6 or 7% in some places until the final few weeks of the race, when his support collapsed to about 1-3%. A significant amount of that support ended up ‘coming home’ to the GOP because “Killary was evil” and they ended up going to Trump at the last minute. This is partly why the polls were wrong. There were a lot of undecideds, and it turns out a lot of those undecideds were initially leaning into a third party alternative.
I don’t think we’re going to see that third party retreat this time. Unlike 2016, when Trump’s 42% ended up being 46% (or something like that) of the vote, 40-42% may mean just that - and that probably won’t be enough to defeat Biden. I hope not anyway.
Yeah, what is up with that?
GenX is also outnumbered by both Boomers and Millennials, though the the Boomer lead has been shrinking.
4 weeks to go. This week is dominated by Survey Monkey. SM is not a very high quality poster, but they do run polls pretty much everywhere.
This week is going to be divided into two posts because of the character limit.
Here’s Alabama through Missouri…
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1583 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 63% | R + 28% |
| Alabama | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1583 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 20% |
| Alabama | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1220 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 33% | Donald Trump 65% | R + 32% |
| Alabama | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1220 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 37% | Donald Trump 60% | R + 23% |
| Alabama | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1354 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 20% |
| Alabama | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1354 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 13% |
| Alabama | 9/30/2020 - 10/3/2020 | Auburn University at Montgomery | 1072 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 37% | Donald Trump 57% | R + 20% |
| Alaska | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 412 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 12% |
| Alaska | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 412 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 16% |
| Alaska | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 472 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 57% | R + 15% |
| Alaska | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 472 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 14% |
| Alaska | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 563 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 9% |
| Alaska | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 563 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 10% |
| Arizona | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4995 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 3% |
| Arizona | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4995 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| Arizona | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 6456 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 5% |
| Arizona | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 6456 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 2% |
| Arizona | 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 871 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 808 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 808 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 9/24/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Strategies 360 | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7100 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7100 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 9/26/2020 - 9/30/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 10/1/2020 - 10/3/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 655 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 8% |
| Arkansas | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 747 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 32% | Donald Trump 66% | R + 33% |
| Arkansas | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 747 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 33% | Donald Trump 65% | R + 32% |
| Arkansas | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 689 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 32% | Donald Trump 67% | R + 35% |
| Arkansas | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 689 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 34% | Donald Trump 65% | R + 31% |
| Arkansas | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 771 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 24% |
| Arkansas | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 771 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 18% |
| California | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 19027 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 28% |
| California | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 19027 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 30% |
| California | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 17537 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 28% |
| California | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 17537 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 30% |
| California | 9/26/2020 - 9/28/2020 | SurveyUSA | 558 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 27% |
| California | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 20346 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 29% |
| California | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 20346 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 29% |
| Colorado | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2337 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 17% |
| Colorado | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2337 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 19% |
| Colorado | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2385 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% |
| Colorado | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2385 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 14% |
| Colorado | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2717 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% |
| Colorado | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2717 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% |
| Connecticut | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1360 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 21% |
| Connecticut | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1360 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 21% |
| Connecticut | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1009 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 29% |
| Connecticut | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1009 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 30% |
| Connecticut | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1415 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 24% |
| Connecticut | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1415 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 25% |
| Delaware | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 453 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 67% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 36% |
| Delaware | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 453 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 69% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 40% |
| Delaware | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 348 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 67% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 35% |
| Delaware | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 348 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 67% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 34% |
| Delaware | 9/21/2020 - 9/27/2020 | University of Delaware | 847 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 21% |
| Delaware | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 395 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 24% |
| Delaware | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 395 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 24% |
| District of Columbia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 290 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 91% | Donald Trump 8% | D + 83% |
| District of Columbia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 290 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 89% | Donald Trump 8% | D + 81% |
| District of Columbia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 252 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 83% | Donald Trump 16% | D + 67% |
| District of Columbia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 252 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 81% | Donald Trump 16% | D + 65% |
| District of Columbia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 343 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 86% | Donald Trump 12% | D + 74% |
| District of Columbia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 343 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 84% | Donald Trump 14% | D + 71% |
| Florida | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 13945 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| Florida | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 13945 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 12286 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 2% |
| Florida | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 12286 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| Florida | 9/23/2020 - 9/25/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1073 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 12962 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Florida | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 12962 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% |
| Florida | 9/30/2020 - 10/1/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 710 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 10/1/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 45% | Even |
| Florida | 10/1/2020 - 10/4/2020 | University of North Florida | 3142 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% |
| Georgia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3745 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 8% |
| Georgia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3745 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 0% |
| Georgia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2772 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | Even |
| Georgia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2772 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% |
| Georgia | 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 789 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 9/24/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Georgia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3468 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3468 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% |
| Georgia | 9/30/2020 - 9/30/2020 | Landmark Communications | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| Hawaii | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 356 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 25% |
| Hawaii | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 356 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 22% |
| Hawaii | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 362 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 24% |
| Hawaii | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 362 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 22% |
| Hawaii | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 474 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 66% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 32% |
| Hawaii | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 474 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 65% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 31% |
| Idaho | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 671 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 63% | R + 28% |
| Idaho | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 671 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 63% | R + 28% |
| Idaho | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 737 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 18% |
| Idaho | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 737 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 18% |
| Idaho | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 761 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 64% | R + 29% |
| Idaho | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 761 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 64% | R + 29% |
| Illinois | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7565 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 21% |
| Illinois | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7565 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 23% |
| Illinois | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 6773 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 22% |
| Illinois | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 6773 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 23% |
| Illinois | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 8392 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 25% |
| Illinois | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 8392 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 26% |
| Indiana | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2175 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 13% |
| Indiana | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2175 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 12% |
| Indiana | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1672 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 12% |
| Indiana | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1672 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 10% |
| Indiana | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2367 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 8% |
| Indiana | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2367 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 7% |
| Iowa | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1095 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 9% |
| Iowa | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1095 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 10% |
| Iowa | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 983 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 7% |
| Iowa | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 983 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Iowa | 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 | RABA Research | 780 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| Iowa | 9/24/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% |
| Iowa | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 743 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% |
| Iowa | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 743 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 3% |
| Iowa | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1276 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Iowa | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1276 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Kansas | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1295 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 3% |
| Kansas | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1295 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 0% |
| Kansas | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 922 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 9% |
| Kansas | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 922 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 9% |
| Kansas | 9/15/2020 - 9/16/2020 | co/efficient | 794 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 12% |
| Kansas | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Civiqs | 677 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 10% |
| Kansas | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1135 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 5% |
| Kansas | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1135 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 3% |
| Kentucky | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1709 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 37% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 25% |
| Kentucky | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1709 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 26% |
| Kentucky | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1231 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 60% | R + 22% |
| Kentucky | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1231 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 21% |
| Kentucky | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1479 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 20% |
| Kentucky | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1479 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 20% |
| Louisiana | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2998 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 60% | R + 21% |
| Louisiana | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2998 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 12% |
| Louisiana | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2587 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 21% |
| Louisiana | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2587 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 13% |
| Louisiana | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2475 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 60% | R + 22% |
| Louisiana | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2475 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 14% |
| Maine | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 733 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% |
| Maine | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 733 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 13% |
| Maine | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 502 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 24% |
| Maine | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 502 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 21% |
| Maine | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 718 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 14% |
| Maine | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 718 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 14% |
| Maine | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 729 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 21% |
| Maine | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 729 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 17% |
| Maryland | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1911 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 66% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 35% |
| Maryland | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1911 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 67% | Donald Trump 30% | D + 36% |
| Maryland | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1813 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 66% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 35% |
| Maryland | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1813 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 65% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 33% |
| Maryland | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2364 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 67% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 36% |
| Maryland | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2364 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 68% | Donald Trump 30% | D + 38% |
| Massachusetts | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2509 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 72% | Donald Trump 26% | D + 45% |
| Massachusetts | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2509 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 71% | Donald Trump 27% | D + 44% |
| Massachusetts | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2286 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 69% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 40% |
| Massachusetts | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2286 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 68% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 40% |
| Massachusetts | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2665 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 66% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 34% |
| Massachusetts | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2665 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 65% | Donald Trump 32% | D + 33% |
| Michigan | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3083 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| Michigan | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3083 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| Michigan | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2962 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| Michigan | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2962 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Michigan | 9/17/2020 - 9/23/2020 | ALG Research | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 785 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 9/26/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1042 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Michigan | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3297 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3297 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 10% |
| Michigan | 9/30/2020 - 10/1/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 746 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 9/30/2020 - 10/3/2020 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 9% |
| Minnesota | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2288 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% |
| Minnesota | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2288 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% |
| Minnesota | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1939 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 13% |
| Minnesota | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1939 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 12% |
| Minnesota | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2808 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 11% |
| Minnesota | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2808 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 10% |
| Mississippi | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 733 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 20% |
| Mississippi | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 733 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 10% |
| Mississippi | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 607 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 61% | R + 25% |
| Mississippi | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 607 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 13% |
| Mississippi | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 782 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 11% |
| Mississippi | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 782 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | D + 0% |
| Missouri | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2261 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 10% |
| Missouri | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2261 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 9% |
| Missouri | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1863 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 10% |
| Missouri | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1863 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 8% |
| Missouri | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2157 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 8% |
| Missouri | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2157 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 5% |
| Missouri | 9/30/2020 - 10/1/2020 | Remington Research Group | 980 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 5% |
Montana through Wyoming…
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 527 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 9% |
| Montana | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 527 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 10% |
| Montana | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1939 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Montana | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1939 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 9% |
| Montana | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 480 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 57% | R + 17% |
| Montana | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 480 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 19% |
| Nebraska | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 910 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 9% |
| Nebraska | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 910 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Nebraska | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 560 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 6% |
| Nebraska | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 560 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 6% |
| Nebraska | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 799 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 57% | R + 16% |
| Nebraska | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 799 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 15% |
| Nevada | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1021 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 5% |
| Nevada | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1021 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 4% |
| Nevada | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 998 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 49% | D + 1% |
| Nevada | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 998 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Nevada | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1239 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 5% |
| Nevada | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1239 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 8% |
| New Hampshire | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 574 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 21% |
| New Hampshire | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 574 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 20% |
| New Hampshire | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 444 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 21% |
| New Hampshire | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 444 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 20% |
| New Hampshire | 9/24/2020 - 9/28/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 972 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% |
| New Hampshire | 9/25/2020 - 9/28/2020 | American Research Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% |
| New Hampshire | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 637 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 12% |
| New Hampshire | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 637 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 11% |
| New Hampshire | 9/30/2020 - 10/1/2020 | Emerson College | 700 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 8% |
| New Jersey | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2426 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 23% |
| New Jersey | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2426 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 27% |
| New Jersey | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2309 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 17% |
| New Jersey | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2309 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 20% |
| New Jersey | 9/8/2020 - 9/16/2020 | DKC Analytics | 501 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 14% |
| New Jersey | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2952 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 23% |
| New Jersey | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2952 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 25% |
| New Mexico | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 904 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 1% |
| New Mexico | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 904 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% |
| New Mexico | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1087 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 13% |
| New Mexico | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1087 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 13% |
| New Mexico | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1015 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 10% |
| New Mexico | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1015 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 11% |
| New Mexico | 9/30/2020 - 10/1/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 886 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 14% |
| New York | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 10280 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 29% |
| New York | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 10280 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 30% |
| New York | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 9969 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 29% |
| New York | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 9969 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 30% |
| New York | 9/27/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Siena College | 504 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 32% |
| New York | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 10007 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 30% |
| New York | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 10007 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 31% |
| North Carolina | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3466 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 1% |
| North Carolina | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3466 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2914 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 3% |
| North Carolina | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2914 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | D + 0% |
| North Carolina | 9/23/2020 - 9/26/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1097 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 9/24/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 9/22/2020 - 9/28/2020 | ALG Research | 822 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3475 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 7% |
| North Carolina | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3475 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 10% |
| North Carolina | 10/4/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 911 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| North Dakota | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 261 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 63% | R + 27% |
| North Dakota | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 261 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 37% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 25% |
| North Dakota | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 269 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 32% | Donald Trump 66% | R + 34% |
| North Dakota | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 269 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 32% | Donald Trump 66% | R + 35% |
| North Dakota | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | DFM Research | 460 A | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 37% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 14% |
| North Dakota | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 249 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 34% | Donald Trump 63% | R + 30% |
| North Dakota | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 249 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 27% |
| Ohio | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3694 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 5% |
| Ohio | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3694 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 5% |
| Ohio | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3220 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 3% |
| Ohio | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3220 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 2% |
| Ohio | 8/26/2020 - 9/1/2020 | ALG Research | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| Ohio | 9/24/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% |
| Ohio | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4012 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 4% |
| Ohio | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4012 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 2% |
| Ohio | 9/30/2020 - 10/2/2020 | YouGov | 1114 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even |
| Ohio | 10/1/2020 - 10/3/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1035 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 4% |
| Oklahoma | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1410 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 34% | Donald Trump 64% | R + 30% |
| Oklahoma | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1410 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 27% |
| Oklahoma | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1009 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 64% | R + 29% |
| Oklahoma | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1009 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 26% |
| Oklahoma | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1174 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 63% | R + 28% |
| Oklahoma | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1174 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 26% |
| Oregon | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1890 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 23% |
| Oregon | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1890 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 21% |
| Oregon | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1648 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 23% |
| Oregon | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1648 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 23% |
| Oregon | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Civiqs | 944 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 17% |
| Oregon | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2109 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 23% |
| Oregon | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2109 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 22% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4208 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 3% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4208 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 4% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3531 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 8% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3531 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/26/2020 - 9/1/2020 | ALG Research | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/23/2020 - 9/25/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1015 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4613 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 4613 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/30/2020 - 10/2/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 706 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/30/2020 - 10/2/2020 | YouGov | 1187 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 12% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 11% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/30/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Monmouth University | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 8% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/29/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Ipsos | 605 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Rhode Island | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 253 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 21% |
| Rhode Island | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 253 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 19% |
| Rhode Island | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 208 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% |
| Rhode Island | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 208 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% |
| Rhode Island | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 351 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 25% |
| Rhode Island | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 351 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 59% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 18% |
| South Carolina | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1700 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 9% |
| South Carolina | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1700 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 2% |
| South Carolina | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1326 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 8% |
| South Carolina | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1326 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 3% |
| South Carolina | 9/23/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1123 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| South Carolina | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 824 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 4% |
| South Carolina | 9/23/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Data for Progress | 824 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% |
| South Carolina | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1833 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 7% |
| South Carolina | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1833 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 2% |
| South Dakota | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 396 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 63% | R + 27% |
| South Dakota | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 396 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 34% | Donald Trump 64% | R + 30% |
| South Dakota | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 277 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 21% |
| South Dakota | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 277 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 21% |
| South Dakota | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 354 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 17% |
| South Dakota | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 354 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 60% | R + 22% |
| Tennessee | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2481 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 61% | R + 23% |
| Tennessee | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2481 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 18% |
| Tennessee | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1796 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 20% |
| Tennessee | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1796 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 57% | R + 16% |
| Tennessee | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2329 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 17% |
| Tennessee | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2329 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 13% |
| Texas | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 13721 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Texas | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 13721 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 0% |
| Texas | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 12607 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 5% |
| Texas | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 12607 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 0% |
| Texas | 9/24/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% |
| Texas | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 13395 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 6% |
| Texas | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 13395 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 0% |
| Utah | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1037 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 18% |
| Utah | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1037 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 18% |
| Utah | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 893 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 57% | R + 16% |
| Utah | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 893 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 14% |
| Utah | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1192 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 14% |
| Utah | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1192 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 13% |
| Utah | 9/26/2020 - 10/4/2020 | Y2 Analytics | 1214 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 10% |
| Vermont | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 368 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 71% | Donald Trump 27% | D + 44% |
| Vermont | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 368 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 69% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 40% |
| Vermont | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 236 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 70% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 41% |
| Vermont | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 236 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 68% | Donald Trump 31% | D + 37% |
| Vermont | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 427 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 34% | D + 30% |
| Vermont | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 427 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 27% |
| Virginia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3178 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 12% |
| Virginia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3178 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 15% |
| Virginia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2626 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 17% |
| Virginia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2626 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 18% |
| Virginia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2882 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 15% |
| Virginia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2882 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 57% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 16% |
| Washington | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7691 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 25% |
| Washington | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7691 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 24% |
| Washington | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7489 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 23% |
| Washington | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7489 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 60% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 22% |
| Washington | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7953 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 64% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 29% |
| Washington | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 7953 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 28% |
| West Virginia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 494 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 32% | Donald Trump 67% | R + 36% |
| West Virginia | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 494 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 32% | Donald Trump 66% | R + 35% |
| West Virginia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 496 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 32% | Donald Trump 65% | R + 33% |
| West Virginia | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 496 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 31% | Donald Trump 65% | R + 34% |
| West Virginia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 516 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 26% |
| West Virginia | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 516 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 62% | R + 26% |
| Wisconsin | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2173 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 3% |
| Wisconsin | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 2173 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Wisconsin | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1913 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 1% |
| Wisconsin | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 1913 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 1% |
| Wisconsin | 9/23/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 663 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 9/25/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1084 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 3% |
| Wisconsin | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3806 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% |
| Wisconsin | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 3806 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% |
| Wisconsin | 9/29/2020 - 10/5/2020 | Ipsos | 601 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Wyoming | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 246 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 28% | Donald Trump 70% | R + 43% |
| Wyoming | 7/1/2020 - 7/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 246 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 28% | Donald Trump 70% | R + 42% |
| Wyoming | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 211 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 25% | Donald Trump 74% | R + 49% |
| Wyoming | 8/1/2020 - 8/31/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 211 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 27% | Donald Trump 73% | R + 46% |
| Wyoming | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 236 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 34% | Donald Trump 65% | R + 31% |
| Wyoming | 9/1/2020 - 9/30/2020 | SurveyMonkey | 236 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 33% | Donald Trump 65% | R + 32% |
I was called by Rasmussen last night. I was honest the entire way through. Took about 10 minutes.
JFC that is why there needs to be character limits for posts.
538 is currently showing Biden winning in 83 out of 100 simulations. That is the best number I’ve seen thus far. I wonder how high that will go.
I think they say if the election were held today, Biden’s odds are around 91%. I’m guessing that’s his ceiling in 538’s model, absent something truly catastrophic.
If I were forced to lay odds to which people could take either side, I’d only give him 75% odds or 3 to 1 at the most, maybe 70%, of assuming the Presidency in January. There’s that high a chance that the fix is in.
It’s hard to fix a race if it’s lopsided. If Biden is winning 60% of the national vote - and I’m not saying he is at this point, but if he is close to that, then there’s no way Trump and the GOP can fix it or spin this into a constitutional crisis. They can be shitty ass losers about it, and I have no doubt that many will be, and that’s probably something Biden/Harris will be dealing with their entire term.
I’m concerned about how desperate people act. I don’t want Biden debating Trump anymore, not unless it’s virtual. They literally subjected Biden and his entourage to COVID-19 by refusing to wear masks, so they should consider themselves very lucky that Jill Biden and Biden’s team didn’t get infected and pass it back to Joe. I wouldn’t put it past Trump and the GOP to actually try and infect Biden and/or Harris. The Trump administration is literally a walking, talking biohazard. They need biohazard stickers on their backs and tattooed on their foreheads.
These are people who are desperate to stay in power so that they can stay out of jail and stay wealthy.
There is a character limit. I mentioned it in my post.
Then that’s why there needs to be a smaller character limit, or you need to learn how to hide/collapse your stuff down.
I don’t think that’s his ceiling, that’s just what his chances are if everything plays out normally (no bombshells, scandals, notable debate performances, or anything else that moves the needle) from this point on until election day.
At the end of the 1st quarter, a 7pt lead in a football game doesn’t improve your chances of victory significantly. However, maintaining a 7pt lead throughout the game until there is only 2 minutes left on the clock majorly increases the chance of a win. And if your opponent then fumbles, it’s pretty much game over.
D.C. is looking pretty good for Joe. He can probably redirect all the ad money he’s been pouring into it. 
Nor I. Biden can’t back out of the debates without getting hammered for it, but I hope his team is being absurdly cautious going into any shared-space interaction with Trump.
I’m going to continue to post polls once a week in this thread about polls as I have been doing for months. Feel free to use one of handful of ways to skip to the next post with a click or two or put me on ignore if this bothers you.
I don’t think Biden owes anyone a debate and I don’t see how he’d get hammered for it, except by Trump’s idiots. You’d have to be an idiot to not see why Biden doesn’t want or need to have a debate with Trump. Even before Trump’s diagnosis, I was not in favor of another debate without a change in format.
Trump has said he will refuse changes to the format, but I say fuck him - it’s Trump who needs to make his case to the American people, and he can do that on Biden’s terms now, not his. Biden was a sport about the whole thing even when others were skeptical that anything good could come out of a debate with Trump - I being among those skeptics, and I’m 100X more skeptical now. Seriously, we need Biden to be healthy. Trump will make the case for Biden all by himself.
Low-information voters still rely on the debates to help make up their minds, and there’s at least anecdotal evidence that that first shitshow helped move a couple of undecideds toward/into Biden’s column. It’s not enough for Biden to offer himself as the anti-Trump – he needs to offer a positive case for his candidacy, and even with Trump streamrolling him, he was still partially able to do that. Besides, while I’m sure Biden wants to keep himself healthy, I see nothing to indicate he doesn’t want to debate Trump or is looking to get out of doing it.