Apparently it’s because they removed the Trafalgar polls which were very good for Trump. They seem to have decided those polls are essentially fraudulent.
I’m glad you guys are optimistic, and i think I understand the reasons this years situation is different/better than 16. But I’m freakin terrified! Hopeful, but terrified.
To quote a profound thinker/speaker: Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, you don’t get fooled again!
Beto for head of the DNC!
Apparently grabbin’ 'em by the pussy works. Just not to achieve the outcome Trump expected.
I wonder how much of the burgeoning single women vote is ladies waking up to the real possibility of the unrestrained RWs killing not only Roe v Wade, but making birth control illegal again. Or at least not something health insurance is allowed to pay for.
Texas, and especially Hispanic Texas, is also fairly young demographically. I wonder how much this simply reflects that more folks turned of voting age in the last 4 years than died off.
Famed slum lord Jared Kushner helping his father-in-law by reaching out to African Americans in saying they’re not successful under Trump because they don’t work hard enough:
Are the Kushner’s also slumlords? They’re best known around here for using connections to use Eminent Domain to kick low and lower middle-class families, especially retirees out of their homes to put up luxury Condos near the Shore.
There’s a Netflix documentary about this:
Thank you. I always found it amazing, Chris Christie was the Prosecutor that put Jared’s Dad in prison.
Whatever his comments, his model has given Biden an 87% chance of victory every day for two weeks, except one day a week ago when it blurped up to 88. (Actually, it was briefly at 88 today.)
Again, though, this doesn’t account for cheating, but it’s hard to guess how that will affect things. 538 has Georgia as a tossup; in fact, I’d say Trump’s odds there are something like 95-98% to win. There is simply no way the Republicans will allow Biden to win if the vote is close.
Young single women are possibly Donald’s second worst sub-demographic. And even Republican strategists have acknowledged that they face a terrible future problem (maybe the future is now) with voters born after 1980 or so, who vote against them by close to 30 points and who show no signs of becoming more conservative as they age.
I also think you’re right about this becoming a factor soonest in states like Texas and Georgia.
Georgia is ready to flip bluish. Both Atlanta and the Rt 95 corridor are changing things along with the general demographic changes. Georgia is absolutely purplish now which amazes me.
Georgia did (mostly) vote in a Democratic Governor last time.
Now there is an interesting poll today: InsiderAdvantage (B- rating from 528) with Trump +2 in PA (48 to 46). That’s way off the average in that state. It’s also a pretty small sample (400 LV) taken over one night (Oct 25). It is about 5 days fresher than anything else we have, so it will be very telling to see if any other polls track with it.
That one poll was enough to move the 538 election forecast one or two points towards Trump.
Remember this is almost exactly when the bottom starting falling out on Clinton’s polling in 2016.
To be transparent, that poll was paid for by these guys
Now there’s a trustworthy and unbiased source!
One big difference from 2016 is that there are a lot fewer undecided voters:
Brian
True. Most of the good polls for Trump have been paid for by Republican-leaning groups this cycle. That was largely true in 2016 as well, however… I’m sure my blood pressure will go back down when some other PA polls come out in the next day or two.
Exactly! (Note it’s at 86% now). I tried to make the point that it was slowly, steadily climbing — due to inherently declining uncertainties as the days left for a true surprise dwindle — UNTIL two weeks ago. The lack of continued increase since then IS a tightening — small, but real.
Sounds like black Georgians are fired up and they are turning out in force:
Aaand it’s moved back. Is there a place on the 538 website I’m missing where we can see what’s actually added between each change? The polls are inserted in the polls table in a non-sequential order AFAICT and I’m going a little nuts trying to see if particular pieces of data (or particular state changes) are driving the various bumps.