It may seem that way but it’s easy to underestimate the damage that can be done, especially if the president has an allied Congress. Bush II – among many other things – led the country into a devastating war in Iraq that cost thousands of lives and ultimately trillions of dollars and laid the groundwork for the growth of terrorism along with vastly increasing the national debt both immediately and for many years to come; he presided over the start of an economic collapse unprecedented in modern times; he instituted science funding priorities that ignored, distorted, and censored scientific evidence and held back vital research; and perhaps worst of all for the long term, he changed the balance of the Supreme Court and created the most activist right-leaning Court ever seen. And Bush was practically a statesman of towering intellectual caliber compared to Trump, who is not only a reckless ignoramus but extraordinarily immune to advice, correction, or any kind of learning.
I really think there will be many forces that keep Trump in a reasonable orbit.
The media generally hates him, there is still a substantial number of democrats in congress and on court benches and many of us voting for him distrust government as a general principle.
Oddly enough there are many libertarian leaning people (like me) that are voting Trump and don’t care to see run-away statism from the right. A lot of us just felt that we were going down the road of run-away statism from the left.
Now, you may be thinking, “no way a libertarian would go for Trump”, but not so fast. Many of us only look at Trump not because we like him (he was my 4th or 5th choice), but as a change agent. Why would people who distrust government break for a demagogue?
It’s risky but not necessary crazy.
You can check out this essay for some more insight:
Does one of them involve strapping him a Soyuz?
I am a left-leaning centrist that believes that (in the long term) a Trump win could be the best thing for this country (if he doesn’t start WWIII). I want to make it clear at the outset that I think Trump is awful, a liar, a criminal that panders to racists, that wants to make unconstitutional changes to this country, is probably a fascist, is a misogynist, and is horrible. I also want to make it clear that I voted for Hillary and would do so again if it was legal…
Why do I think that a Trump win could be best for the country? In short, because I believe that Hillary will be one of the most divisive presidents in history while Trump will be one of the most uniting (people will unite against him and what he represents). Let’s take a look:
What are the effects of a Hillary win (obviously this is all just IMHO and I could be way off base; please school me if and why you think I am wrong):
Positive effects:
[ul][li]NATO and our other alliances remain strong.[/li][li]Supreme Court Appointees (who may not be approved)[/li][li]We get a serious person as Commander in Chief with lots of relevant experience and insight.[/li][li]We get a good foreign policy though I worry about her picking fights with Russia.[/li][li]She will pay attention to Climate Change (but won’t get anything done due to the house).[/li][li]Trump loses and he and his supporters lose face and hope. [/li][li]Breitbart and their ilk are discredited and lose their audience (this is only a possibility, not a certainty).[/ul][/li]
Negative Effects:
[ul][li]She gets nothing done and spends at least 2 years being investigated by the house (and maybe impeached).[/li][li]40% of the population doesn’t trust her and so Democrats lose power at every level.[/li][li]Hawkish version of Obama (who was too hawkish for my taste).[/li][li]2018 midterms are a Republican sweep (Bye, bye senate).[/li][li]2020 election are a Republican sweep (and it is a census year!). Can you say President Ryan?[/li][li]The Republican party of the last decade remains strong in opposition (think Cruz, Santorum, McConnell, Ryan etc…).[/li][li]Faux news gets new momentum.[/ul][/li]
Potential negative effects (following in Obama’s footsteps):
[ul][li]The Sanders revolution and their supporters are ignored by the Democratic party.[/li][li]Income inequality remains and grows (after all, what did Obama do on this front?)[/li][li]Poverty remains and grows (ditto).[/li][li]The financial sector continues to be out of control (ditto).[/ul][/li]
Note: I want to make it clear that I think Obama may have done more on these fronts but for Republican opposition. Still, how will this opposition change under a Clinton presidency except to solidify?
Now how about Trump?
Positive effects:
[ul][li]2020 election is a Democratic Sweep to break all records. Democratic president in 2020 will have a mandate and unite country. I really believe this.[/li][li]Republican party has desperate soul searching and potentially disintegrates.[/li][li]Democratic party has a desperate soul searching and probably reforms.[/li][li]Faux News has desperate soul searching and maybe even mainstreams.[/li][li]Both Democrats and Republicans start paying attention to the all the disenfranchised voters in this country instead of just paying lip service. (Think Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, BLM, and the 15% of Americans who are below the poverty line). [/li][li]The Koch brothers, Soros, and all the other billionaires that have been mostly picking our candidates for us lose power.[/ul][/li]
Negative effects (yeah, these could be awful, but they are all a crap shoot, not a certainty):
[ul][li]Will be an embarrassment (well, this may be a certainty).[/li][li]May ignore Russian invasion of Lithuanian, Estonia, Latvia, or Finland. Will end up destroying NATO.[/li][li]Will ignore Climate Change (but I don’t think Clinton could do much anyway and if she was succeeded by a ® nothing would happen for at least 8 years, possibly 12).[/li][li]Could start a wider war in Middle East.[/li][li]Could damage all our trading relationships and put 25% tariffs on incoming goods (what a moron!).[/li][li]Could star WWIII.[/li][li]Could crash or damage the world economy.[/li][li]Really bad Supreme Court picks![/ul][/li]
Potential Negative Effects (I doubt these will happen):
[ul][li]Could have disastrous domestic policy (I think house and senate will reign him in).[/li][li]Could actually build the wall (too expensive and Mexico will not pay for it)[/li][li]Could actually stop Muslims from coming to America (unconstitutional).[/li][li]Could get re-elected in 2020 (this is a nightmare!)[/li][li]Could bankrupt the US (have you seen his tax plan and infrastructure plan?)[/ul][/li]
Yeah, I know, this all looks insane on its face. But, I look at the slope of the 538 prediction model and I have to find something to feel optimistic about. I really do feel pretty confident that Hillary will be at least as divisive as Obama (not her fault or his), and I really do feel that the majority of Americans would repudiate Trump given other options (too many people distrust Hillary), so let’s write off the next 4 years and focus on doing the best we can in 2020!
Go to Sam Wang’s site at the PEC. He is still absolutely certain Hillary Clinton will win:
Yesterday he even suggested that giving money to her campaign was a waste of money because she was sure to win already. He suggested giving money to downballot races instead.
Thanks for clearing that up. I stand corrected.
This.
I ain’t gonna lie – when the FBI story broke last week I immediately started a freakout. I was on a freaking family vacation FFS, trying to get away from all the madness of news and then the story broke and I thought “Shit, here we go.”
I absolutely don’t want Trump to win, but Trump himself isn’t really the disease but rather the symptom. Our collective problem of political paralysis won’t end if Trump loses, and if he wins, then he’s the logical outcome of a social and political culture that is badly corroded.
Over the past few days I’ve gone from shock and horror, to acceptance. Not that I’m accepting Trump’s victory as inevitable – far from it. But it’s more like an acceptance that our society has problems that are not going to be resolved in one election and they may not be corrected for years to come.
Ultimately, as much of a smug, elitist bastard as I can be at times, as cynical as I have a tendency to be, I have decided that I am just going to have to trust that at some point, the little light bulb will eventually start to flicker on in the minds of my fellow citizens and that we will find the collective wisdom to not only put a stop to the politics of destruction but also find a way to build something close to a consensus on real solutions to our problems. I will do what I can to vote for and support my interests. I’ve actually helped out with Hillary’s campaign this year with phone banking, which is something I’ve never done before. I plan to do more in the future.
But beyond that, though, as difficult as it is to accept, we just have to trust the guy standing next to us wearing the “Make America Great Again” hat that at some point, even he will ‘get it’ and be our partner in making our society and system work again.
Yup, those are our options.
Vote for a dysfunctional, sociopathic, narcissistic, emotionally unstable, childish, ignorant buffoon who could really fuck up the country.
Or vote for a reasonable candidate who can’t get anything done.
Yeah but Trump got 13 million votes in the primary, he will probably get 50-55 million votes in the general election. So it is the opposite, he will get 4x more votes in the general.
My prediction is Hillary with 60-65 million, Trump with 50-55 million, other candidates with about 5-10 million.
Trump will lose, there’s virtually no doubt about that. But the margin of defeat makes a huge difference. If he loses in a landslide, Trumpism will have been discredited. But if he loses narrowly, Trumpism will have been enhanced - after all, if an ignorant, 70-year old, ugly, nasally-voiced, groper-history buffoon can lose only narrowly, then imagine what a smart, handsome, winsome, strategic, knowledgeable Trumper-type candidate could do in 2020 or 2024, when the Democrats will have had the White House for 12-16 consecutive years and voters typically hand over the reins to the opposing party then?
Revisiting this after a bit of research. My numbers were wrong, but this is an issue nonetheless.
Emphasis added.
Wow, that is seriously disturbing. I am continuously worried about my country and the activist right.
This post describes my feelings EXACTLY.
Trump could have all the natural parks destroyed in no time just by having an open hunting season on the wildlife and have Palin run the show! Then logs all the trees and build on it ! He doesn’t believe in protecting the environment so the Clean Air Act will be history too ! Trump will destroy USA in no time ! He doesn’t care about anything or anyone but his fucking self!
I enjoy hunting and fishing so, I want to preserve places for me, my kids and grandkids to enjoy.
Can you afford to buy a zoo?
Could be handy if there’s a potentially fatal spasm of euphoria.
This is demonstrably false. Clinton, Trump All but Tied as Enthusiasm Dips for Democratic Candidate - ABC News.
Perhaps you meant something like ‘all the poll aggregators’ or ‘all the poll averages’?
no, no, no, this one
You can mitigate the last option by voting out the people who would stymie the candidate, i.e. congressional Republicans.