Talk Me Off the Ledge

Politics & Elections
41

Is it really so hard to figure out that voting for the candidate who isn’t a pathological narcissist with a vengeful streak and no fucking clue about anything who has threatened to start two wars on the campaign trail is a good idea? Why should I take literally anything you have to say seriously?

Obama wasn’t a chronically clueless buffoon. He may not have been experienced, but he has never displayed such a fundamental ignorance as Trump does pretty much every time he opens his mouth. What did Obama say which was as stupid as Trump’s claim that Putin wouldn’t go into Ukraine, or that Aleppo had already fallen, or that climate change is a hoax by the Chinese? Or his claim at the debate that Mexico’s equivalent of a VAT is a “tariff”?

No. But he could demand that, say, we open fire on Iranian vessels that taunt our ships. That wouldn’t be too hard for a president to do, and then, all of a sudden, we’re in a shooting war with Iran. Whoops. He’s also made “go back to Iraq and take their oil” a major campaign promise - again, this doesn’t take too much influence from Congress to cause real damage. The president pretty much has free hand on foreign policy, and Trump’s no scarier there than anywhere else. And given that, I’d rather have a president who hasn’t shown themselves to be fundamentally unqualified for the job and unwilling to learn even the basics.

You do realize that Trump has basically run on a platform of authoritarianism from day one, right? His whole thing is “I alone can solve”. The way he describes the presidency, he seems to think he’s running for dictator, not for president. He certainly doesn’t want a loyal opposition, and his vengeful tendencies indicate that if people get in his way, he’s probably not going to react with grace.

Look, I knew from sentence two that your post probably wouldn’t have much going for it (I’m sorry, “I’m voting for Trump” does not instill confidence), but you seem utterly confused about why the rest of us are freaking the fuck out. The fact is, the president has quite a bit of power. Otherwise we wouldn’t be treating this like the single most important job in government. Your thesis seems to be that it really won’t be that bad, because he will meet with opposition - and also, as an aside, he’s somehow comparable to Obama (although you’d think you might rethink some assumptions if you were “on the ledge” in 2008, given how Obama has actually performed). That’s a fucking terrible reason to vote for someone who has run on a platform of an authoritarian strongman!

This assumes three things, none of which I can get behind.

  1. People actually will unite against Trump. Yeah, I’m sorry, if the election and the campaign trail hasn’t been enough to show people why Trump is a bad idea, I fail to see why him in the white house, or indeed any other facet of reality would be enough to convince people why Trump is a bad idea.
  2. This will stick for even five minutes past the next election. Probably not. As this past week has shown, people have memories about a day long, and the idea that this would have any lasting effect is simply not tenable. Trump would have to do something like start a nuclear war in order for people to actually rally around his opposition in enough of a manner. Which brings me to the third assumption:
  3. This is actually worth it. That having people rally around the side of politics that is sane for however long it actually sticks is worth four years of Trump.

I find the Bush years quite telling on all three points. Sooner or later (although apparently not soon enough to prevent another disastrous four years), people decided Bush was a shitty president and “rallied” around his opposition, leading to a not-too-narrow victory and control of the senate - although nowhere near the kind of landslide you might expect given Bush’s approval rating.

Not only did this last literally only until the very next midterm election, where we got a different and even more extremist right-wing reactionary wave in response, but in the 8 years Bush got, he did incredible amounts of damage to the country and the world at large. Even if we assume Trump wouldn’t win his bid for re-election, that the country will actually notice how shit he is when they haven’t figured it out in the most incompetent and bumbling election campaign ever, that still leaves four years for him to cause a hell of a lot of damage.

And it’s not like the country moved to the left after Bush.

42

Great post, Budget Player Cadet. I would only add that we’re still paying for the Bush years in a big way, as I’m sure you know. No way we can afford Trump.

Just the tightening of the race is already rattling markets worldwide and causing the dollar to slip, GulfTiger. Obligatory cite. A buffoon like Trump can do a very lot of damage – and the whole world knows it.

43

The best thing Trump can do is not unite the country in anger by getting elected, but partly unite the country in fear by almost getting elected, with his various cohorts of supporters turning against each other in blame for the defeat.

44

Ever notice Trump sort of reminds one of the presidental dude in The Dead Zone?

And what I am doing? Well, I am sort of preparing for the idiots to try some sort of revolution when Trump doesn’t win. I have 2 ways I can go, both start with the same prep.

I am replacing the old momvan, it is time [06 Dodge Grand Caravan with 300K miles on it and a serious case of rust-leprosy] and I want a more dependable vehicle that isn’t flashy. I already have a good selection of camping gear that I tend to leave loaded [I dropped the passenger second row seat and the whole third row, have my army cot strapped in place, and have my 3 totes strapped in under the cot - one has pet supplies, one has my camping food and cooking gear, the third one has more preserved foods - I like Mountain House and Ready Reserve freeze dried stuff, with assorted other stuff like herbs, spices, condiments.] I have a car top carrier that I normally pack tent, several tarps, an entrenching tool, a hammer, a small rake and a small general tool kit, the other cot, the other sleeping bag and other assorted stuff. That stuff and the carrier normally live in the garage. I have a MOLLE pack that stays packed for road trips [Hubs and I are doing the geographical bachelor thing right now, so I tend to be on the road a fair amount] and I have my pair of woobies and a sleeping bag, and a large orca cooler taking up space in the van. I also have a pair of penguin cages ready to pop in to move my 4 cats. I also have a nonbrand solar and battery thing that I picked up used from a friend at pennsic. For ‘personal defense’ I have a backpack that has a supply of ammo and a cleaning kit to cover my M1, my daily carry and my holdout piece with spare copies of my various permits. So I have 2 options to grab and run, one with weapons that lead me to camping out away from the insanity, and one without weapons where I run toFort Drum [or I can take my weapons and surrender them to the armory.] Having a retired military dependent status, I can actually legally hide at Fort Drum, or the nearest military installation.

Not that I am worried that a new civil war will break out, but I have the gear, the training and the ability to ‘prep’ for zombie invasion, so I might as well [The CDC noted that if you prep for a zombie invasion, you are actually ready for a wide number of natural disasters to pop up :smack:]

45

If neither side had any scandals, and if Trump were a bit smarter and better-disciplined, “Generic Trump” would probably be beating “Generic Clinton” by a good bit, I think. The developed world is experiencing a big reaction against immigration, multiculturalism, global institutions, and so forth right now (most strongly in eastern and central Europe, secondarily in Western Europe, and to some extent in the united states), and Trump’s success is just part of that.

Hillary Clinton’s biggest advantage is that Trump is much dumber and more immoral than his European counterparts, and also much dumber and more immoral than her (and I say this as someone who doesn’t care for the Clintons and won’t be voting for either of them). As you point out, his scandals (which include two claims of statutory rape) are bigger than hers.

46

To the OP: I’ve posted it in other threads, but read this article: The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There | FiveThirtyEight

Early voting suggests that Hillary is doing just a hair below as well as '12 Obama in NV, when he won it by 7. This is far above her poll numbers there, on average, probably due to underpolling of Hispanic voters (a chronic polling problem as of late). If this is true in other states, especially FL and AZ, then she could be headed for a big and very comfortable win.

47

Are you me? :frowning:

48

Anyone who is worried about President Trump should read up on Andrew Johnson’s presidency. He was an outsider (Democrat turned Unionist) and his own party did everything to obstruct him. Supreme Court justice dies? Pass a law reducing the number of justices and override the veto. As soon a Johnson is out, pass a law to make it 9 justices again. The supermajority made his veto worthless and they refused to pass any of his policies.

On the other hand, Clinton is an insider and very shady so she can actually do real damage to this country if she is president.

49

Come off the ledge. Look at other forecasts. Sure Silver has a great track record and should be paid attention to, but Wang/PEC does too. And then there’s the NYT Upshot, and PredictWise, DailyKos, and HuffPost. I give Wang and Silver a little extra weight, but the average percentage I see for Hillary winning is a shade under 90%. If we were looking at these forecasts as polls, 538’s would be the outlier. Not saying he’s wrong, but there are others out there giving different results, and their numbers are more clustered.

Then take a look at the states that are “toss-ups.” Right now I put those as NV, CO, WI, MI, ME, NH, PA, NC, FL. (AZ, OH, IA are all looking solid red these days.)

But if you look at the most recent polls for those toss-ups, Hillary is up pretty good in PA, CO, NH, WI, MI and ME. Give Trump the rest (NC, NV, FL). Then, what you have is a map that looks like this. Hillary is a winner, winner, chicken dinner.

*So, TL,DR: Every other forecast is more optimistic than 538’s of a Hillary win, and the electoral map is still solid for Hillary when looking at toss-up states’ recent polls.
*

And as far as GOTV goes: When Hillary’s chances slip and Trump’s chances go up, people are more motivated to get off their butts and knock on doors, phone bank, etc. The final weekend before the election is the perfect time for people to feel they actually need to work for this. If Hillary had a 90% chance of winning on 538, people would likely feel their work wasn’t needed.

50

I too have stopped reading the news. I’m not even reading all the threads here.

BUT I spent yesterday afternoon doing door-to-door canvassing for Clinton and Duckworth. I’m scheduled to do more on Friday and Saturday. Tomorrow night I’m having training on being a poll watcher for the Dems, which I’ll do on Tuesday.

I know most people don’t have the time flexibility I do (I’m semi-retired), but if you’re freaking like I am you might want to give a couple hours to the cause. I live in Illinois, which is pretty safely blue, but I’m trying to do what I can to help the popular vote. If you live in a battleground state, the Dems could really use your help now.

51

Please explain what “real damage” Clinton can do.

52

Do you have any specific criticism of Clinton, because if all she has to be is “shady”, then any failing of her presidency (and of course, there will be such failings - no president an possibly avoid them) can be interpreted as damage to the country, and indeed hyped gleefully by Fox as massive damage to the country.

Truth be told, if the choices are:

  1. Four years of Hillary, but any mistakes (or anything that be spun as a mistake) gets a massive chorus of “We told you so! We told you so!” from Republicans and/or Trump supporters, or

  2. Four years of Trump, with a congress that may or may not try to control him, but could as easily take advantage of his inexperience to manipulate him. How hard could it be? If he looks like he’s about to veto a bill, just say “that guy over there said your hair was funny” and Trump will happily drop everything to get back at “that guy”. Long-term economic goals cheerfully scuttled for short-term gains. Another financial-mismanagement recession.

… that shouldn’t really be a hard decision.

53

Potential calming thought #1: Clinton is still leading. It’s not going to be the landslide we’d hoped for, but she might squeak by. As an added bonus, it’ll be entertaining to watch the death throes of Trumpism as he disputes the results. And there’s an excellent chance that the Senate will go Democrat.

Potential calming thought #2: Especially with a Democratic Senate, and with no friends in the House in either party, a Trump administration is going to be embarrassing, but ineffective. Most of what he’s running on is either unconstitutional or logistically impossible; the remainder will be blocked by a divided Congress.

As long as doesn’t unilaterally start a war, the worst he can do is nominate a Supreme Court justice.

54

Ohio and Iowa are Trump leans at the moment.

Florida, North Carolina, Nevada (or Nevaaahda as Trump pronounced it), Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are all Clinton leans according to 538.

55

It looks good, but we cant get complacent. It’s really quite close.

56

Trumps coattails are so bad, it looks as if the Dems with take the Senate, so SCOTUS gridlock wont happen. Oh, the GOP will try tricks, but the Dems will stop that after a bit.

And if the Dems gain a lot of seats in the House, maybe that will stop the obstructionism.

57

Poll-watching and news-following constantly during an election is like scale-watching and mirror-obsessing during a diet - you’re just gonna despair in the fluctuations, or go on a manic-depressive rollercoaster. I’m not saying these sources aren’t useful, but they become a double-edged sword through overuse.

Take a week off from the media. Then you can tune in for the accusations, recriminations, and tears, and the start of impeachment proceedings.

58

Seriously. If you want to do something to actually make a difference rather than feel like you need to plummet to your grizzly death, here are some things you could do between now and Tuesday (especially if you live in NV, CO, WI, MI, ME, NH, PA, NC, FL, OH, or even OH, IA, AZ, and AK):

  1. Knock on doors. Find your county Democratic coordinated campaign office, or local Hillary office. They need people to knock on doors, flyer, etc. Two hours is a typical shift.

  2. Phone bank. Same thing as above-- find the coordinated campaign office or Hillary office and do some calls. A lot of times, they have automated dialers that you’ll be plugged in to, so you’ll keep getting a new person’s info on a computer screen while you get connected to them on the phone. Easy conversations.

  3. Donate. Now at this point I would advise against donating to the Hillary campaign online. They’ve got boatloads of money. Think local. Instead, offer to buy a nice big lunch for your local coordinated campaign or Hillary campaign office, or offer to buy it for the final four days before the election. Buy donuts, buy snacks, buy a table full of fried chicken-- hell, buy 50-100 balloons. This sounds silly on the surface, but the better the hospitality at these campaign offices, the better experience the volunteers will have and the likelier they will to return and bring others and feel excited about being there. Help these offices create a positive experience for volunteers with food, balloons for kids, etc. And might I recommend not pizza? If you want to donate $50-100 for food, try and do it through a local restaurant or an Olive Garden or Chipotle or even Jimmy Johns. These people are pizza-ed out. If volunteers go away well-fed and happy, they’re more likely to return the next day or the next day, and maybe bring a friend who also likes free food. That’s critical at this point. The less time we spend on recruiting NEW volunteers the better. By doing a local donation like this, you’re helping with volunteer retention.

This will be won or lost on GOTV, and these are three ways you have to help if you live in one of those toss-up states.

59

Based on the early voting numbers in NV compared to 2012, Hillary has a big lead, 5 or 6 points. That’s several points above the polling averages and aggregates.

And the same thing happened in 2012, by the way – polling underestimated Dem vote in NV, probably due to Hispanic voters being underpolled.

60

Would you care to explain how this makes any sense whatsoever?

On one hand, you’re speculating that the republicans will do everything they can, including working with the democrats, to ensure that Trump can’t get much done. That’s a fever dream, possibly brought on by listening to too many “both sides are bad” beltway pundits. It ain’t 1865 any more. The republicans aren’t exactly lining up to repudiate Trump. For fuck’s sake, the “moral center” of the GOP saw the pussy grabber video and decided, “Welp, I can still vote for that.” Now add that the republicans in congress are terrified of a primary challenge from the far right, and that Trump supporters clearly voted in the primaries, and also that Trump is clearly veering his policies in their direction, and I have literally no idea where you got this absurd idea that both parties would band together to stop Trump. That’s not gonna happen. It’s just not. And if you think it is, you clearly have a higher opinion of the moral fiber of a party who continues to fucking back this asshole than is warranted. Even if they weren’t wrong on just about every single fucking issue, even if they hadn’t devolved into a fact-free mess since 2008, they’d still be craven cowards terrified to break ideological purity in even the slightest way, lest they end up like Eric Cantor - who was still further right than most of Congress a decade ago when his ass got primaried from the far right.

On the other hand, your big critique of Clinton is… “She’s very shady”. What does that even mean? Like, really, what are you even talking about?! What lasting damage does being “shady” cause to this country? What do you think Clinton is going to do, fucking hypnotize the GOP caucus into voting her God-Emperor of the USA? Hide emails containing the nuclear launch codes on a private server that gets hacked? This criticism is vapid and vague to the point of uselessness and you should either fill in the details or retract it.

And meanwhile, you’re also ignoring the fact that just toeing the republican party line at this point is doing real damage to the country and the world. But at this point I don’t feel like putting any more thought into this post.