Jump if you must, but vote first.
(Would make quite the absentee voter application. “Have determined to suicide, will not be available”.)
The biggest danger I see is her ordering a Syrian no-fly zone that ends up with us in a shooting war with Russia.
I don’t think it’s terribly likely, but I’d call it an outside possibility, that in a worst case scenario ends in a nuclear holocaust.
The only one that’s a strong lean is probably Pennsylvania. Trump will probably take Florida and North Carolina, and we just don’t have enough good data about NH and Colorado yet.
If you’re looking for good news, do NOT check the latest polls (released November 2) at RCP.
The latest five national polls averaged show an exact tie: 44/44/4/2. (Og only knows where Johnson voters stand, but I hope some of the Stein voters (2%) sober up and decide not to waste their votes.)
And Hillary cannot tolerate a popular-vote tie. Because of EC specifics (e.g. the huge waste of Democratic votes in NY and CA), a Democrat candidate needs a 1% popular-vote edge to win the electoral vote.
North Carolina? Latest polls show Trump slightly ahead. Florida? Latest polls show Trump slightly ahead. Ohio? Trump is significantly ahead.
New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Colorado are the key states. If Trump wins any one of these he’ll be the 45th President of the United States. (Hillary can counter NH by winning all of the remaining swing states, WI+CO+NV – unlikely.) Hillary was up very slightly in Colorado in the most recent poll, but it was conducted before Comey’s revelation had effect.
You seem to be clinging to these early voting numbers with all the determination of a drowning man thrown a lifeline. Here is a just-released Nevada poll by CNN that is Trump +6.
It’s certainly possible that it’s wrong, but why ignore all the polling data in favor of some early voting numbers?
They’re real voting numbers, for one thing. And the polls have a history (2012 and Senate in 2010) of being wrong – in one direction – for Nevada.
I’m certainly not convinced, but I’m not as worried as I was before I read about this.
This morning’s 538 now-cast has NC and FL as slightly pink.
I don’t understand the worry about continuing gridlock, considering every thing I see shows the Dems taking back the Senate.
Well, then* we have to make sure that happens!*
Did you ever check the 2014 gubernatorial polls vs results? They were off badly as well, but in the opposite direction. Admittedly, it wasn’t a well-polled race (only three polls after July, all from the same outfit).
Another data point. Thanks. We’ll see.
I was going to suggest you meant to write grisly death, but a death involving grizzlies (in addition to plummeting) isn’t likely to be much fun, either.
Or maybe it’s a metaphor for Russia, in which case - good show.
Oh I totally meant the bear thing. Plus the Russian thing. Obviously, it wasn’t the incorrect-spelling-of-the-word thing.
There are no Grizzly Bears in Russia. There is the very rare Groznya Bear, a species so ugly that they cannot mate unless both are blind. Hence, the rarity.
Around the beginning of the year I already said this was a win-win election for Democrats no matter what.
If Hillary wins, she wins.
If she loses, then Trump will muck things up so badly that the Democrats will regain the White House in 2020 and own it for a decade or two.
It’s just short-term gratification vs. long-term gratification.
Assuming that there IS still a White House, and not a smoking, irradiated ruin.
Yes, hysterical hyperbole - but not by much.
Overall, the responses make me feel marginally better. Incidentally, I am in NH, so I have a valuable vote… Well, we are only 4 EC votes but I suppose it could come down to it. Around here the Trump lawn signs way outnumber the Hillary signs, but I don’t know how much that means. Personally, I have never seen much value in those things. I can’t imagine someone changing his mind due to seeing a lawn sign.
The thing that I really, truly, honestly can’t figure out is how a Trump voter thinks it’s going to play out when Trump visits the G8, or a UN meeting, or any such interaction. I mean, would these guys ask their crazy stupid uncle to represent them in court?
It wouldn’t be smoking and irradiated. It would be vacant in disrepair, missing all its copper piping, overgrown weeds surrounding it and a rain-soaked condemnation notice half-attached to the front door.
Logic reasons that the poor will still be poor. The rich still rich and the middle class will still get up and go to work everyday and there will still be a war to fight somewhere and problems to solve or ignore just as it has for every president we’ve had this century. All else is just irrational fear because there is nothing to indicate that the world will be doomed from 1 countries election.
I disagree. Although there is still so much more that needs to be done, Obama has made a fair amount of progress addressing climate change. I think that will be his greatest legacy.
Trump has said he will undo all that, and I think he would have the power as president. (If I’m wrong about that, I’d love to hear it!) And he sure won’t make any more progress than Obama already has.
I think that pretty clearly affects the whole world, and could in fact doom us.
When the United States is that 1 country, it’s not that irrational.