Makes you wonder if the next Democratic candidate (assuming he/she is more of a policy wonk, or more articulate, or more emotionally stable than his/her opponent) will push hard to have the last debate occur closer to Election Day.
The next election will have different dynamics and(hopefully) less scandal-prone candidates. This is teh first election I’ve seen where being basically invisible is the best strategy.
True dat. Though I’d modify “scandal-prone” to include something like “but also somehow inspires opponents to unusual feats of scandal-exaggeration-or-outright-invention.” 
The mistake I believe you’re making is assessing Trump as if he was just an ordinary candidate with an ideology that liberals just happen to disagree with. He’s not. Trump’s sociopathy would at the very least demean the office of the presidency and undermine the credibility and the bona fides of US international relations everywhere for a very long time. US influence has been largely based on the enviable high ground of democratic accomplishment; in the new era, it will be heavily tainted as “the idiots who elected Donald Trump as their president <snicker>”. And nearly every day will likely provide new comedy, in the cartoonish Palinesque style of the campaign itself. And that’s the best-case scenario which assumes he doesn’t start a major war someplace. The carnage he would wreak on the domestic front and Supreme Court nominations I don’t even want to think about.
Sounds to me like you’re describing the Bush Presidency. Only with a Yankee embarrasment instead of a Texas embarrassment. It’s essential that we show the world what a huge variety of weirdos we produce.
To an extent… Yes and no.
To the extent that this is true, yeah, Bush was, internationally, a complete catastrophe. America’s image during that time was abysmal, largely because of how much of a laughingstock he was, and how awful he was at representing America. He projected the strength of a Lennie Small - dangerous in how incompetent it was. And it hurt our image. No question.
To the extent that this is false, the problem is simple: Trump makes Bush look like a freakin’ genius. Bush was not a smart man, and didn’t have the greatest social graces, but compared to Trump, he’s The Fonz. Bush was not the brightest, but he at least seemed to have a basic understanding of policy - Trump doesn’t. Bush was a dolt, but in a loveable, mostly inoffensive way - compare his “massage” of Merkel to Trump’s “Grab 'em By The Pussy” comments. Bush went into wars without clear plans to end them… Trump wants to start wars without any clear idea that what he’s doing is an act of war, or any understanding whatsoever of what’s necessary to accomplish his vague, open-ended goals.
So basically, imagine the harm Bush did, except a thousand times worse.
I don’t think Trump can get much higher, but Clinton can go lower, especially in states where there is no early voting, many of which are critical to Clinton’s victory path.
I think you’ve got the gist of it right, but are giving Bush a bit too much credit. The only reason Bush didn’t do worse than he did is that he listened to people who were smarter than him, at least eventually, once the things he wanted to hear ended up not working for him. Bush was also basically a decent man, if a bit of a macho fool, whereas Trump is a macho fool with very little decency.
Not to mention, Trump not only knows nothing but is averse to learning, he has the patience and temperament of a toddler, and trying to correct him or guide him is just a sure path to being fired. And criticizing him after that is a sure path to being sued.
He is a true psychopath and that was my point. There is a vast difference in degree between Bush and Trump. Trump would be unprecedented, and not just in subtle ways. I meant every word of my previous comment entirely literally.
ETA:
I agree with all of that, and the “listening” thing is key and I already alluded to it above. These are not small things. They are yuuuuuge things!
So Trump damages our image, which means the international honeymoon the Democrat that follows him gets will be even better than Obama’s. Maybe the next Democratic President will win the Nobel Peace Prize during the campaign.
His are rising much faster than hers are falling. But I don’t think that necessarily means she can go much lower. She’s only lost 1 point since her post-debate peak on Oct 26.
The explanation for Trump’s increase that makes the most sense is Repubs coming home. He bottomed the day after the 3rd debate and has picked up 3 points since then. So it’s a question of how much steam is left in that.
If we wake up to President Trump on November 9, the one possible thing that would give me hope is the fact that Trump really is his own man. He got here by being his own man. Maybe, just maybe he fights with his own party at some point.
Oh, he’ll fight with everyone, you can be sure of that. He’s been doing it the whole campaign.
It looks like Trump has stopped gaining though, so he’s probably going to finish JUST a bit short, unless the polls are in error by a bit or the undecideds break unexpectedly for Trump.
I would look at the majority of undecideds at this point as not being made up of independents.
I’d look at them as being repubs who haven’t decided on one of the four options, Trump, Clinton, nothing, or someone else.
If the undecideds are Republicans then Nate is very wise to include a lot of uncertainty in his forecast.
Well, if you’re Trump, only one of the four options is good for you. If you’re Clinton, only one of the four options is really bad for you.
I’d expect Trump to probably continue to get more repubs off the bench right through Tuesday. It’s the pace that’s the question, can he continue to gain ~0.4% a day or is it nearly capped and peter out?
I think he’s gained all he’s going to gain in the polls, but there are always that 3-5% that won’t make their decision until they are staring at the ballot.
“Sir? You’ve been in the booth for more than an hour, sir. We have people waiting, so, if you could just…”
It’s just such a difficult decision because both candidates are just so similar to each other! (sarcasm)
God, if we just had a picture of Trump rocking a pantsuit…