I know you’re trying to reassure the OP, but I can’t keep reading this blase attitude. I’ll try to keep it low anxiety, but it’s not easy.
The problem is not that Trump damages our image. Trump is fundamentally different than Bush in a very important way. Bush, for all his faults, was a good guy at heart. He listened to others because he knew he needed to. He cared about this country, and still did what he thought was best. And, despite claims to the contrary, he was perfectly mentally sound.
Trump cares about Trump. Trump has a mental disorder that makes him incapable of caring about others, and basically incapable of admitting fault, or thinking anyone else knows better than he does.
Trump has said that nukes are on the table, and that he’s gonna do what he can to limit our help to all our political allies–unless they do something for him. He’s going to basically declare war on Islam. The problem with Trump is him starting a fight we can’t get out of. And our allies actively working against us.
I mean, to Trump, what does it matter if a bunch of other people die? They aren’t Trump. They are genetically inferior.
Bush was the victim of a myth. Its one of long standing, and a theme of numerous stories and fables. Its the myth of the guy who is underestimated by everybody, likeable, but just OK. And then the big crisis comes, the moment of truth, and his inner power emerges. He has the strength, the leadership, the wisdom of a Leader of Men. It was always there, but only a great crisis could make it surface.
Its one of our favorite loads of crap.
Its true sometimes, it happens. But the Great Crisis did not enhance his powers, it just magnified his weaknesses. He thought he had been transmorgified into the Leader, but he was little more than a likeable doofus with more on his plate than he could eat. He lacked doubt, and without doubt, faith is a horror.
Cheney did not doubt, Wolfowitz did not doubt, the neo-cons did not doubt. They believed down to their toenails that their moment had, at long last! arrived. Its not that they weren’t smart, they were victims of certainty. Now, he is a poor artist struggling to attain mediocrity and thousands of innocent people are dead. And here we are.
Last week the Trumpettes were wetting their pants over the ABC News poll showing Trump ahead by one point. Now there’s a five point swing in favor of Clinton.
New PPP polls show Clinton leading in battleground states, too:
Doesn’t make sense. That much a shift in only a week? And why? A reaction to the FBI’s rather clumsy attempt to interfere? Why would that change the minds of anyone? The Trumpbats most likely approve, so they aren’t going to bail. Trump has (apparently) heeded the advice of Ms Conway, and “pivoted”. Sorta kinda. He didn’t say the Obama kids had eleven different STDs. He didn’t accuse Michele of being an atheist. So what the fuck?
That particular poll is iffy. But I think it does indicate that the last part of Hillary’s steady decline was due to the Comey letter, and now that that news cycle has passed, we’re seeing a small natural rebound, about to where she would have been if the Comey thing hadn’t happened.
In other words, still very much in oh-shit-land, but not dipping down into OH-SHIT-land. I expect a modest uptick in 538 Polls Only from 64% to around 69% or 70% by Monday, and then that’s it – time to start biting your toenails.
It’s one poll. the average is very stable since Wednesday. Clinton leads by 2-3 in the RCP average, 4 or so according to Silver. It looks like that’s where the polls will remain. Any weird news now will only be reflected in the final result.
Clinton will most likely enter Tuesday’s election with a higher RCP polling average than Obama had in 2012. And yet, in some ways, I could understand the argument as to why she can’t necessarily feel confident about the numbers. In 2012, we basically had a somewhat typical presidential election. Sure, there were insults, rumors, innuendo, good news, bad news, but it was basically an election in which two candidates made their case to the American voting public. This election isn’t really even about issues - it’s as much about voter identity and voter dislike of the candidates. These are forces that are less stable and more difficult for polls to capture with precision. So Clinton may have a greater statistical advantage than Obama did, but she probably needs it.
That’s been my concern all along. It’s a real possibility, though again, the state numbers are just not very reliable. We woke up today to news that one poll has Trump leading in New Mexico. The true test of that poll will be in whether it alters HRC campaign plans. If the campaign’s internal data show signs of weakness, she’ll be on a plane there tomorrow or Monday.
This “irrational fear” comment, and other commenters’ similar “what can one president actually do?” type of comments just boggle my mind.
Have you seriously forgotten what George W. did and the various global disasters that resulted? Do you honestly believe that Trump is better? That he has a more nuanced and sophisticated understanding of foreign policy?
I’m Canadian btw and most of my colleagues and friends are really, really nervous about a possible Trump presidency.
Johnson is a huge wild card there. Until very recently he had a small chance to win the state. Now his voters are reallocating and the polling is volatile.
I think most who reallocated have already done so. Trump might get more but probably not enough. The state has a large hispanic population that will probably make damn sure that Trump doesn’t win, even if they don’t necessarily like the Clintons, and given their turbulent history with Bill Richardson I’d say a fair number of people in NM have reason not to like her. Still, they like Trump less.
I mean, other than intentionally destroying the budget surplus, promoting torture, and spending trillions of dollars and thousands of American lives on a recreational war, what’s wrong with W?
I basically agree with that comparison, but the responses tearing into Bush in response suggest why a lot of people are going to agree somewhat with this analysis and still vote for Trump. Ie, there’s a real cultural divide (Trump is also not very conservative if at all, so shows it’s more culture than really left/right), and just like a lot of people here have utter contempt for the side on which Trump has planted his flag in recent years*, a lot of people in the country have utter contempt for the side which predominates here.
Trump’s personal flaws are important though, and at the margin might be judged the reason he loses if the odds play out and he does.
That said I don’t really think it’s that likely he’ll start wars, bring about economic catastrophe etc if he does beat the odds. Back to the uncrossable divide, IMO Bush’s foreign policy was based on what he believed was right. Trump’s would be based on what he thought would get him adulation, and the Trump base does not want new wars. Along with anti-free trade and anti-corporate/anti-bank sentiments it’s among the issues they agree on with the Bernie-ites, but they can’t admit they agree. ‘Bomb the sh*t out of them’, but don’t get involved. That’s basically what we’re doing now. Trump got a lot of mileage in the GOP primaries basing Bushism and the wars are the main thing which defines that to the populist right as well as to the left.
*albeit a frequent liberal in public statements over decades, and seems to still have leftist/statist instincts on various things; IMO he’s play acting a liberal’s caricature of a conservative, but many people calling themselves conservatives are fooled. Sad! as he would tweet.
The risk may be the opposite. He may withdraw from the Middle East and leave Syria for his pal Putin. Or even encourage Putin with his rhetoric to attack the Baltic states. But then, after miscalculations of this type, he (or his successor) may finally feel obligated to lead America into disastrous war against Russia or against one of Russia’s enemies.
I think those minimizing the global security and economic risks of a Trump Presidency are overlooking the power of the office and the crudity of Trump’s cognition.