Frankly, I think the teams/GMs picking #1 over the last ten years are responsible for the ridiculously large numbers teams have to pay the top overall pick.
There is absolutely no excuse for the team drafting first not to have a deal in place beforehand. Regardless of what teams say, there is never a guy you “must” take at the top; look at the Texans with Mario Williams. Everyone “knew” that the Texans had to take Reggie Bush, except for Charlie Casserly… who got lambasted at the time.
Parcells got it right last year, too, by playing Jake Long and the other candidates off against each other, although the Falcons might have effed it up for everyone else with the contract they gave Matt Ryan.
Al Davis (with JaMarcus Russell) and the 49ers (with Alex Smith) on the other hand got it totally wrong.
That’s led to this idea among agents and front office personnel that everyone in the first round should get 5% more than their counterparts last year did. Screw that- team revenues don’t increase by 5% year on year.
I think you guys may be overthinking this trade a bit. A second-rounder next year may just be the best offer the Chiefs got- and while obviously you wouldn’t take next year’s second round pick over this year’s second round pick, you’d probably take it over this year’s fourth round pick.
Well the conversation seems to have shifted somewhat, which is mostly my doing. Don’t worry, this particular hijack will end shortly.
Regarding the Gonzo trade specifically, presumably the Chiefs could have gotten a lesser degree of compensation in 2009 draft picks, probably a 3rd, or maybe a 3rd and a 5th or 6th, but Atlanta wanted to hold on to this year’s 2nd Rounder because (I imagine) they’d already spent it in their heads.
I can’t understand why the pundits keep assuming Snyder will do something as stupid as setting his franchise back three years by trading up for Sanchez.
I’m really starting to hope that the Bucs trade up for B.J. Raji. He could be a bigger Warren Sapp… and apart from Crabtree and Curry, he’s the only 1st-rounder I’m really in love with.
ETA: Any Gators fan will tell you that UF had six guys on their roster last season with sub-4.3 speed… and three of them were wideouts. Harvin is nothing special.
Eugene Monroe going AFTER A. Smith? Tyson Jackson at 3? Aaron Gholston… I mean Maybin before Orakpo? Barwin at 17?
I like Peter King, but those are some outlandish picks. I think he’s being misled by his sources to throw off other teams. Ahhhh the joys of public misinformation surrounding the draft.
Here’s the thing. I’m not convinced that Snyder’s strategy is a bad one. Only about 20% of draftees turn out to be worth a damn, in the first and second rounds its something like 50% and 40% success rate. Based on that logic, if you can turn draft picks into proven talent you are coming out ahead. The problem isn’t Snyder playing fast and loose with draft picks, the problem is that he’s been very poor at evaluating the talent he’s doing it to get. If he repeatedly packages picks and as a result dramatically increases his success rate, then it’s a good strategy.
All that of course depends on if Sanchez is going to be worth a damn or not. I think it’s less than 50-50. If Snyder is sure he’ll get a player, then I bet he does it.
Peter King is famously bad a predicting things in the NFL. I like reading his column and he has good access, but predicting which way the wind is blowing is not his strength.
I dunno. If the Hawks are lucky enough to have Curry fall to them, barring any trades, he won’t make it to 5. They had the best LB corps in football, they’re now down Peterson and, last I heard, still having trouble signing Hill. I still think Ruskell will use his later-round magic to address QB with either White or Bomar.
No argument from me. Love all those guys at those spots. Leaving the QB question unanswered is a risk though. Worth it for the strides they could make on the lines though. Imagine if they get Duke Robinson or Andrew Levitre at the top of the third to go with that?
Well if they do go QB I hope they have the patience to let him bench one year. They have to flat out decide this year will only be rebuilding, and not throw him to the wolves(and packers and vikings).
Blame the move to 3-4 for his meteoric rise. I was stunned that a DE with only 4.5 sacks this year could be a top 10 pick. But so many draftniks (and maybe many GMs) are looking for guys who “fit” their system, and a 6-4, 298 pound beast who is stout against the run fits the 3-4 DE mold almost perfectly. And, since there are so few college teams running the 3-4, there isn’t a whole lot of guys to compete with Tyson. So he is, by default, the best projected 3-4 DE by a far margin.
Much the same can be said for the OLB position. Now that more pro teams are looking for 3-4 OLB who can pass rush, all those college DE tweeners are now projected to be OLBs in a 3-4. Orakpo, Brown, Maybin, Barwin, on and on. These guys who a couple years ago would have been considered maybe too small to play De in the NFL are now getting more looks and rising up draft boards.
I think we are nearing the end of the time when the Steelers could grab some OLB like Harrison, off the street and turn him into the defensive player of the year. Too many teams going to the 3-4 now.
I’m down with Culpepper there for a year or two. Besides, there’s a Drew Stanton waiting in the wings. I’d even be down for picking up a Brian Hoyer in the third or fourth.
Don’t get me wrong, I really, really like him. He is, to my mind, an outstanding college player who is willing (and able in most cases) to do whatever is necessary to help his team. And it was a great benefit for him to move to DE his senior year, because it got him up a few rounds in the draft.
But, and its a big but, for as good a college player he is, he’s not ready for the NFL. He is, at best, a project with good upside. But I think it will be a few years before he develops into a starter in the NFL (whether that is as a TE or a OLB or a DE or a LS or that one guy who does that one thing that the team needs). Which is great … for a second round pick. Not in the middle of the first.