Why no thread? Is the Hillary Clinton machine an unstoppable force?
Other names that get mentioned as alternatives:
Elizabeth Warren
Jim Webb
Joe Biden
Martin O’Malley
I don’t dislike Hillary Clinton, but I’m not excited in the least by her candidacy. Her 2008 campaign was terrible. Also, I admit to ageism in that I think Clinton, Biden and Romney are all too old for the job. The upside to Hillary is everyone knows where she’ll stand on most issues and there won’t be a learning curve. Out of all the candidates except Biden, she’s most qualified to hit the ground running.
My preferred candidate would be Andrew Cuomo, but I don’t think he’ll run. I’m somewhat intrigued by Brian Schweitzer and Martin O’Malley, but I don’t know much about them.
Anyone else not ready to jump on the HRC bandwagon?
Solid candidates, both of them. In a world where what candidates had actually done mattered, Schweitzer and O’Malley would be the frontrunners. And I do think that they, and also Jim Webb, can appeal to independent voters more than Hillary Clinton can. The problem is getting Democratic voters to show up. And for that, you need a big name. Hillary Clinton is a big name. O’Malley, Schweitzer, and Webb are not. Warren only is among the informed progressives. Most people don’t have an opinion of her:
So it’s either Hillary, or take a chance with a candidate the base might go apathetic over. Not that the Democrats don’t have great candidates, they do. It’s just that their base and whether that base will vote has to be taken into account more than on the other side and that influences candidate selection in a not always positive way.
Cuomo is Lieberman 2.0, I can’t see how any Democrat would want him to be the next President considering he combines all the factors that will upset the Democratic base and swing voters. While Hillary will almost certainly be victorious I hope candidates like Schweitzer and Sanders (Warren has made it clear she’s not running and Biden won’t be since Hillary is) will join in to shift the debate in a more populist direction.
This is true for all elections anywhere, with any electorate. If by the time the general election rolls around, your candidate isn’t a big name, then you’re in serious trouble. Whether the candidate was a big name before the campaign, however, is completely irrelevant.
Unless you’d like to explain how Barack Obama was a big name before 2008?
Seriously, I’ve been on the Schweitzer bandwagon for ages, so I’d obviously love to see him run. He doesn’t have a chance in Hell of winning, mind you, but he could very likely reach a VP slot that I could just as easily get behind.
Of the ones you listed, only Biden & O’Malley would be viable alternatives in a potential Hillary slugfest, & neither of them (at this point, anyway) has any chance of toppling her. Since you didn’t mention him, I’d also like to toss Deval Patrick’s name into the ring, though I think it’s fairly obvious that he has no desire to be President. But, again, VP slot.
People were certainly discussing Obama for some time before 2008. He was a classic “up and coming” politician. Maybe that doesn’t satisfy your “big name” criteria, but he was hardly unknown.
I don’t think it was terrible. It wasn’t as good as Obama’s, but Obama’s really was shockingly good. And even so, Clinton got it together later and made a run.
I’m not a Clinton fan, but I think she can and would win the nomination, can and would win the election, and would make a decent to good president.
She seems to suck up all the oxygen in the room when it comes to the Dem race. It’s hard to imagine one of the slew of no-names getting anywhere against her (of course, people probably said that in 2007-8, but I think she’s wilier now than she was then), and it makes me wonder who is going to decide to go up against her since at least some potential candidates might think they will look foolish.
I want her to be challenged at least a little. I don’t want it to be a meat grinder, and I don’t want her to have to tack with the wind, but I don’t think it’s healthy to have the nomination process be a coronation.
People who followed politics knew who he was, and so he was “up and coming” in that sense, but then, the same is true nowadays of Cuomo, or Schweitzer, or O’Malley. None of those guys is a “name”, in the sense that people outside of their constituencies who don’t follow politics would have heard of them, but then, neither was Obama a “name” when he started running.
And running makes you a name. Consider a Republican example, Sarah Palin. Everyone knows who she is: She’s a “name”. But they don’t know her because of her half-term governing one of the country’s least-populated and most-remote states. They know her because she was running for vice president. She doesn’t get introduced as “Ex-Governor Palin”, she gets introduced as “Ex-Vice-Presidential Candidate Palin”.
Rather few are, which is something of a problem. She reminds me of Bob Dole - it’s just sort of her turn. The core Democratic vote (which includes 80% of the SDMB) will vote for her in the general election (and the GOP voters for the GOP candidate), but she is going to have trouble appealing to the moderates.
Elizabeth Warren - pardon me while I snicker. She is left enough to appeal to the SDMB, fow what that is worth. Although as a Republican, let me state for the record [del]“Please, Br’er Fox, don’t throw me into that there briar patch!”[/del] she would be very tough to beat, and I hope they won’t nominate her!
Jim Webb has lots of military experience, and that is a big plus. He is not known for legislative expertise on other topics. And he appears to have a temper, which may bite him in the butt during the campaign. And I am not sure we want another Senator to go straight to the White House.
Joe Biden has kept the seat warm for the last six years ably, and basically, that’s it. He runs the risk of being a punchline, and unfortunately does not seem to be able to break the habit. Come what might, he is going to have to run on Obama’s record, and the voters are not as fond of Obama as the SDMB is. He may run, and will probablyl get assistance from Obama the incumbent, and he isn’t as actively disliked as Hillary is, yet. Don’t know if he wants the White House. Don’t think he will get it if he does.
Martin O’Malley - also a relative unknown. His problem will be illegal immigration and his attitude towards it. He will also be faced with the problem of identifying himself with Obama on other issues and getting pulled down, or distancing himself, as Democrats generally did in 2014, with the observed results.
You’ve got to admit it’s a bigger problem for the Democrats. Republicans will show up to vote against the other guy but Democratic support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
In the past I’ve predicted Cuomo would run. But I’m changing my mind on this. He’s not acting like somebody who’s planning a presidential run. I don’t know if he’s given up on the idea of the Presidency or if he’s decided 2016 isn’t his year.
I appreciate this invective-free analysis, and I can’t say I disagree with any of it.
Liberal orthodoxy gave the democratic party McGovern and Mondale. There isn’t going to be a Paul Wellstone liberal president any time in the foreseeable future. I like some things about Elizabeth Warren but I don’t regard her as electable.
I suppose that leaves O’Malley as the only compelling candidate who is likely to run. I wasn’t blown away by what I saw at the 2012 convention, but who knows? Maybe he can pull an Obama on Hillary. That would almost make me feel sorry for her.
I don’t know that O’Malley = Obama, if for no other reason than O’Mally has more of a track record. That’s a plus if you want someone to be President, but a minus when he runs for President. Part of Obama’s charm was that he was an outside - “hope and change” and a new approach to Washington. Since he had only served part of a Senate term, and was never a full-time politician before that, he could
O’Mally, for better or worse, won’t be able to do that. Especially not on a hot-button issue like illegal immigration. He might want to hope people have forgotten about Obama’s executive order on immigration by next year, although he will need a response when FoxNews or someone like that asks him about it.
Hillary seems overfamiliar, old and tired to me. She did not come across at all well in Game Change, about the 2008 campaign behind the scenes. Now she’s eight years older, with a grandchild and a mixed legacy at the State Dept. Bubba would, as ever, be a huge distraction.
Right now I’m leaning towards Martin O’Malley, although as a small-state governor he’s a longshot for President. He’s done good, capable work in Maryland (and is just leaving office today, I now see).
I don’t see the point of his doing so. Claiming you might run when
doesn’t make him any less a punchline.
Semi-unrelated - this really irritates me about the press. They are such a bunch of nags - she kept saying “I’m not running”, now she has said “I am not going to run”, and it’s supposed to be this huge announcement. But they will still keep asking her. Maybe she will change her mind.
If he leaves office, he is going to need something to keep his name out there so people don’t forget him. Hillary will always have her name out there - I suspect name recognition is the basis for much of her polling numbers, at least the positive ones.
I always heard Slick Willie as an asset - he is probably the best pure politician of the last fifty years, and he was going to be both chief strategist and head fund-raiser for Hillary. I would hope desperately that he can keep his zipper under control at least until November 2016 - he’s an old guy now. Although he didn’t help her much in 2008. Are you thinking he won’t be self-effacing enough? That I can see - he lives off the adulation of the crowd.
If you don’t mind me asking: What does her having a grandchild have to do with anything? I don’t remember it coming up when Mitt was running (who is a tad older than her, BTW).