The 2016 Republican candidates

[adaher]

@ElvisL1ves

Pull out your pocket constitution and read the Supremacy Clause.

We’ve been over this before. So have Grant and Lee, for that matter.

See? You saved me the trouble of someone shouting “CITE!!!”

[elucidator]

@Rick_Kitchen

…It looks like Christie will not be running, because “the people of New Jersey want me to stay as Governor.”…

And the Galactic Chutzpah of the Year Award 2015 has been decided, no further entries are required.

[ElvisL1ves]

His Mamma and Papa are some of “the people of New Jersey”, aren’t they?

If he quits, no matter why, the people won’t have the satisfaction of voting against him next time. Or even the fun of impeaching him. Maybe that’s it.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

@Rick_Kitchen

…It looks like Christie will not be running, because “the people of New Jersey want me to stay as Governor.” For which he gets called out by the largest newspaper in New Jersey.

He must be dizzy, he’s spinning so much!

[BrainGlutton]

@RTFirefly

Rubio says “The world has never been more dangerous than it is today.”

What an ignoramus.

He’s got it totally backwards. The world has rarely been safer than it is today, and in the past 3/4 of a century, America has rarely been safer than it is now.

Indeed, though you wouldn’t know it from the news media.

And why?

What makes O’Reilly’s conjecture truly insulting is his assurance that non-religious people are somehow more likely to be immoral. This shows not just a remarkable measure of O’Reilly hypocrisy — if increasingly dire reports on his personal life are to be believed — but also his ignorance of history. Before the modern era, it was more or less illegal to be an atheist in the Western world; the further we go back, the more violence rises, as documented in Steven Pinker’s “The Better Angels of Our Nature.” Today, violence is the lowest it’s been in documented history, while religious disbelief is presumably at its highest point. In his book, Pinker describes what he sees as the likeliest causes of this humanitarian revolution:

“The growth of writing and literacy strikes me as the best candidate for an exogenous change that helped set off the Humanitarian Revolution. The pokey little world of village and clan, accessible through the five senses and informed by a single content provider, the church, gave way to a phantasmagoria of people, places, cultures, and ideas.”

The rise in literacy and education, along with the centralized state, have contributed to the most peaceful and moral era in history — not religion. Furthermore, studies have found that non-belief is more common in wealthy industrialized societies and that rates of the most violent crimes tend to be lower in less religious states. Another report shows that just 0.2 percent of America’s prison population is atheist, while more than half are Catholic or Protestant.

What does all this reveal? Not that atheists or Christians or Buddhists are more or less moral; but that human beings exist in a complex moral landscape, shaped by any number of factors; and that the environment one grows up in plays a crucial role in developing this morality. So, Bill O’Reilly’s fear that the drop in Christianity is contributing to a moral crisis, and that this moral crisis in contributing to the imminent collapse of the American empire, is hogwash.

[BrainGlutton]

@Rick_Kitchen

It looks like Christie will not be running, because “the people of New Jersey want me to stay as Governor.”

True. But that’s only because they don’t want to let him leave town while he owes them money.

[BrainGlutton]

Bobby Jindal is doing his bit to keep the GOP the Party of Stupid.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

Ugh. John McCain had to make the same March to Stoopid from 2000-2008 to get the GOP nomination - for all the good it did him.

[Beware_of_Doug]

RTFirefly may be assuming too much in assuming O’Reilly, or his Fox News handlers, would agree that nonviolence and peace are earmarks of a moral era. They may associate morality with more superficial signs, like churchgoing or public support for military operations.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

It’s no easy thing to be an Iowa Republican these days: http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/01/politics/2016-iowa-caucus-republicans/index.html

[CGav8r]

@Elendil_s_Heir

It’s no easy thing to be an Iowa Republican these days: http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/01/politics/2016-iowa-caucus-republicans/index.html

Reading how the folks of Iowa determine who they will caucus for and the (over and inflated) importance of their polls always makes me shake my head in amazement.

The folks in that article are so out of touch with reality, but I guess that’s good. If they choose some of the second-tier kooks, it would be great…I’d love Dr Carson to beat Bush before he inevitably gets a shellacking later in the race.

[BrainGlutton]

Scott Walker says no to NSA reform.

“I would prefer to have something closer to the Patriot Act intact,” says Walker.

[DSeid]

Any thoughts on if Lindsey Graham will get any traction?

[Lamar_Mundane]

@DSeid

Any thoughts on if Lindsey Graham will get any traction?

Really doubtful. He’s single and widely rumored to be gay. If he moves the needle at all, the whisper campaigns will start in earnest.

[jayjay]

@Lamar_Mundane

Really doubtful. He’s single and widely rumored to be gay. If he moves the needle at all, the whisper campaigns will start in earnest.

Yeah, if there’s anything he’s hiding, a presidential campaign is the surest way to have it exposed. I’m not quite sure what Lindsay Dear is thinking.

[EndlessEntropy]

this country isn’t stupid enough to take lindsey graham seriously.

[RandMcnally]

@Lamar_Mundane

Really doubtful. He’s single and widely rumored to be gay. If he moves the needle at all, the whisper campaigns will start in earnest.

Hey, it worked for Buchanan.

[RTFirefly]

My 4/17 list needs an update. Since Sabato hasn’t had a new list in nearly a month, I’ll just ignore him for now.

1. The frontrunners: Scott Walker, Jeb Bush.

2. Most likely to benefit if the frontrunners both have feet of clay: Ted Cruz

3. Overrated by the MSM, including Sabato: Marco Rubio.

4. Are getting noticed, but are still toast: Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee.

5. Running? Who in the damn galaxy ain’t? John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, George Pataki.

6. Are these guys still running? I’ve lost track: Bob Ehrlich, Jim Gilmore, Peter King, John Bolton.

Previous list:

@RTFirefly

1. The frontrunners: Scott Walker, Jeb Bush.

2. The contenders: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz.

3. Could become a contender if he could just get noticed again: *Rick Perry, *Marco Rubio.

4. Would have a problem getting people to care, even if they could get noticed (aka the T-Paw Brigade): John Kasich,

5. Are getting noticed, but are still toast: Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee.

6. Running? Who in the damn galaxy ain’t? Carly Fiorina, Peter King, John Bolton, Bob Ehrlich, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore.

7. Apparently these guys ain’t: Mike Pence, Rick Snyder.

Names in italics have been downgraded from my previous list. I’ve moved Perry, Santorum, and Huckabee down from the #2 group, and Pence and Snyder from #4.

I just don’t see either Santorum or Huckabee either (a) catching fire, or (b) becoming the guy that GOP voters settle on after rejecting everyone else.

I think Rick Perry still has a shot at the (b) option: if the primary voters sour on Walker, never warm to Jeb, and decide Cruz is too much of a bomb-thrower and Paul is too much of a clown, I could see Rick Perry being the 2016 GOP’s answer to John Kerry on the Dem side in 2004, the guy that’s alright in a sort of a limited way for an off-cycle. He’s still a longshot, but it could happen.

My impression of Rick Perry’s opening shot is that he’s aiming for a core demographic of Duck Dynasty fans. Even in a contest for the GOP nomination, I’m going, “WTF?!”

My line back in 2012 was that even the GOP base was looking for someone who could at least credibly play a President on TV. I’ve pretty much decided that Perry’s not going to clear that low bar, and I’m not sure Rubio can hurdle it either.

[Gyrate]

Huckabee’s recent defense of the Duggars is likely to peel off a number of his less hardcore supporters, but the True Believers will keep supporting him no matter what. But yes: he’s toast - between the Duggar defense and the recently-revealed shenanigans of his son, he’s picking up some small but very nasty negatives rather quickly.

[GIGObuster]

@RTFirefly

My line back in 2012 was that even the GOP base was looking for someone who could at least credibly play a President on TV. I’ve pretty much decided that Perry’s not going to clear that low bar, and I’m not sure Rubio can hurdle it either.

What I do get the impression is that the huge number of Republican candidates is telling me that they also (among other things like influencing the forerunners) do think that the frontrunners have very little chance of winning the general election, but that they will be the exception to all those losers that declared their candidacy earlier.