If Bush was still in office, they’d still be backing him to the hilt.
Thank you.
Let’s avoid the personal comments, please. If you want to slag on someone as a poster, take it to the Pit. In this forum, stay focused on the content of that person’s posts.
Thanks,
twickster, Elections moderator
I see no reason that the post you moderated does not focus on adaher’s posts. It was a direct response to his post here:
That’s not attacking those who disagree with him? And that’s not mod-noted. Twickster, I suggest that you retreat back to MPSIMS. You’re useless as an Elections Moderator.
No. It was an overreaction that took (42fish’s interpretation of) a few events and used them to launch a very personal attack on adaher.
As is typical of these threads, a number of people, including adaher, have been slipping in digs at other posters. 42fish went well beyond that.
The best you can do is to cite a post where adaher made a tepid apology for his comments–comments that were no worse than several others aimed at him–while throwing out another mild dig?
And for that you are launching a personal attack on twickster instead of raising an objection in ATMB?
Do not pull this sort of stunt, again.
[ /Moderating ]
The last thing the republicans want in 2016 is a free-for-all melee like 2012.
I predict the 2016 republican primary will be similar to 2000. The big money and organization will coalesce early around Jeb Bush. Rand Paul will play McCain’s role this time around, contesting every state until the end but ultimately falling well short.
ETA: Bush will select Scott Walker as his running mate. The perfect attack dog.
I think that’s a pretty sound prediction, but I think there’s an equal chance of a free for all. I was amazed at how much the debates mattered, how a candidate could emerge as a new frontrunner just based on a good debate performance despite having no money. I like electorates that actually pay attention.
Unfortunately the ‘good showing at debates’ method has given us Cameron & Obama.
Fortunately the “good showing at debates” method did not give us McCain or Romney.
And it eliminated Rick Perry, although he seems to think he is still a plausible candidate.
Not so sure about the debates being decisive. Remember the first presidential debate from 2012 where Romney played Biff and Obama played George McFly?
The GOP primary debates were what was decisive. Gingrich and Cain both got to temporary frontrunner status based on good debate performances despite having no money. Perry eliminated himself in the debates.
Money was what was decisive in the GOP primary. Romney carpet bombed the air with negative ads whenever anyone got out of the unRomney clown car.
They also self destructed after their good debate performances.
But the point I was trying to make is that I expect more of the same in 2016. Romney and Bush may end up with the big money advantage, but the base is probably going to give a big boost to Walker, Huck, or Jindal, or Paul, or Carson, or whoever else bests them in the debates. And of those, I only see Carson as someone who would self-destruct afterwards. Romney and Bush can’t rely on being the only plausible options this time around.
Yes, because the rest of that list is OBVIOUSLY not batshit crazy, incredibly venal or just plain evil…
Ben Carson has a better chance at the papacy than he does the White House. I think the only reason that Gingrich and Cain ever got to be temporary front runners was that the party was desperate to find someone other than Romney.
You grossly underestimate the self-destructive capacity of Jindal and Huckabee. Walker . . . has already self-destructed, by his record.
They are the only electable options and even the base must know it by now.
It wasn’t so much that a candidate could emerge as a new frontrunner, as that the previous one, when subjected to even brief scrutiny as the frontrunner, was deemed by the wingnuts themselves to be someone who couldn’t plausibly play a President on TV. And then they’d turn to the next one in a big way, like a schoolgirl with her new crush, and the same thing would happen to that one. Lather, rinse, repeat.
So they went through Trump and Bachmann and Perry and Cain and Santorum and Gingrich, and ultimately came back to Santorum for lack of better choices for a non-Establishment candidate.
Incidentally, that’s why I don’t buy any of this ‘it’s Santorum’s turn’ stuff. He may have placed second last time, but he was really the wingnuts’ desperation choice for their date to the prom, and most of his supporters in the 2012 primaries would really like to find someone better this time. So they’ll support Rand or Cruz or the Huckster, and many of them will flirt with Ben Carson, but for most of them, it will just be a flirtation. Some of them will stay with Santorum, but I’d bet against his being the last wingnut standing, this time around.
I don’t know if this is how likely GOP primary voters (or anyone else besides me, for that matter) will see it, but somehow, having both Jeb and Mitt in the race makes everyone else look small.
I really thought this would be the cycle where one of the ‘base’ candidates got a lot of support early, and looked good enough to most GOP primary voters that the Establishment candidate’s efforts to get back in the game proved futile. Instead, none of those Rands or Cruzes or Hucks has been able to get all that much support in the polls, so now the story line isn’t about one or more of them, and isn’t even about all those guys versus Jeb or Mitt. It’s now about Jeb v. Mitt, and they’re all off to the side.
Two months ago, I wouldn’t have thought either Jeb or Mitt would run. Hell, I said as much about Jeb, and the idea of Mitt going for a third try just seemed ridiculous. But there they are. So don’t put a whole lot of trust in my crystal ball.
I think the ultimate winner will depend on which half of the bracket solidifies first. Will the business wing split between Bush, Christie, and Romney while the radical wing unites behind one guy? Or will the reverse happen? Darned if I know. We haven’t seen any far righties announce yet and if one of them takes all of the oxygen out of that side of the tent, he could win the nomination. More likely in my opinion is that the survivor of Bush-Christie-Romney solidifies the money wing and cruises to the nomination.