I’ve actually seen all of those and would rank them:
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Three Billboards
- Shape of Water
- Dunkirk
Get Out is way, way better than the others in this list, though.
That’s how I’d rank them, too. And even if they all don’t get Director nods, they’re almost assuredly all going to get Pic nods (since that category recognizes 8-9 films). The other possible contenders for the remaining slots (again, in order of personal preference): The Florida Project, Call Me By Your Name, The Big Sick, The Post, Darkest Hour. And whoever possibly bumps one of these 5 DGA nominees for the Oscar slate will probably be from one of these titles.
Well, the Critics Choice Awards have just been announced, and while not as old as the NY or LA Critic Associations, it’s the single group that’s not a guild that most closely reflects the tastes of Oscar voters.
For those categories that mirror the Oscars (including a number of tech/craft categories), last year’s Critics Choice selections went 11-for-18 in predicting the Oscars correctly. The year before, 15-for-19. So, not a bad frame of reference.
This year’s winners (Oscar categories only):
Best Picture
The Shape of Water
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell , **Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
**
Best Supporting Acress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Foreign Language Film
In The Fade
Best Animated Feature
Coco
Best Original Screenplay
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Best Adapted Screenplay
James Ivory, Call Me By your Name
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 (Roger Deakins)
Best Production Design
The Shape of Water (Paul Denham Austerberry; Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin)
Best Score
The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
Best Costume Design
Phantom Thread (Mark Bridges)
Best Editing (tie)
**Baby Driver **(Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos) / Dunkirk (Lee Smith)
Best Visual Effects
War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Hair and Makeup
Darkest Hour
Best Song
“Remember Me” from Coco
I don’t know if it counts as a 2017 release, but “Your Name” should win best animated movie.
you’ve got to admit that for arnie hammer to go from lone ranger punchline to even one of those groups nominating him for anything in 2 or 3 years is something of a come back
YOUR NAME was eligible last year. THE RED TURTLE and MY LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI were the foreign titles that were on the nomination slate that year (either of which I’d have preferred to have win over ZOOTOPIA).
Armie Hammer became a name when he played the Winklevoss twins in The Social Network. A lot of people didn’t realize it wasn’t twin actors in the role. They found out quick enough. Maybe it’s because I haven’t seen The Lone Ranger, but I’ve never known him as a punchline, and I’ve liked him in everything I’ve seen him in. He’s very good in CMBYN but I liked him even better in the other movie he did last year, Free Fire.
It’s been my goal the past several years to see all of the Best Picture nominees before the Oscars so I can have my own strong opinions about who was robbed. I’ve never gotten to do it, though, because the timeline between nominee announcement and the awards just isn’t that long, I’m pretty busy, and movies are expensive. But now, I have a MoviePass, am laid up a bit with a back injury, and I started with likely suspects before the nominee announcement.
Based on buzz only, I decided to see these movies as time and screenings allow (asterisks indicate I have seen them):
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
*Lady Bird
*I, Tonya
Call Me By Your Name
*Get Out
*The Greatest Showman
The Disaster Artist
The Post
*The Big Sick
The Florida Project
Mudbound
Molly’s Game
*Wonder Woman
I’m going to hold off on Dunkirk until it’s officially nominated because I really don’t care for war movies much. I am going to see Three Billboards tomorrow night if a work class gets out early enough. For everything else, I will just try to balance showings.
Are there any movies that you folks think are missing from my list of high probability nominees?
Until yesterday, I favored"I, Tonya" and thought it had something really special to it in the way the actors played with the camera. But I saw “The Shape of Water” last night. It was outstanding, to say the least. It’s my new front runner.
Two additions:
DARKEST HOUR is the current front-runner for 2 awards (Actor & Make-up) and is likely to pick up a few more nominations as well.
BLADE RUNNER 2049 will probably not get any major attention but will almost certainly be rich in nods in the craft and technical categories.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Lucky
Phantom Thread
Asimovian and I did that two years ago, and made an abortive attempt last year (he was out of town). I really like getting that perspective.
Based on the feedback you guys gave me, I added The Darkest Hour, The Phantom Thread, and Lucky to my list. I already saw Blade Runner, so that was easy enough to check off.
I spent some time last night researching and planning the rest of my movie watching. It looks like The Disaster Artist is impossible unless it gets put into theaters again after a nomination. James Franco ruined everything. Several of my list are available on Netflix or DVD, which takes pressure off.
I saw Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri last night. It was so beautifully acted, and a really nice script. Trying to decide if I liked it better than The Shape of Water is like trying to decide if I like a baked potato or a chocolate cake better. They are so different, and exceptional in their own ways.
Saturday will be Call Me By Your Name, if the stars align.
Well, the PGAs and SAGs were over the weekend
The Shape of Water won the Producers Guild top prize
The Screen Actors gave their ensemble award to Three Billboards with McDormand and Rockwell from the film also winning Actress and Supporting Actor respectively. Oldman and Janney rounded out Actor and Supporting Actress.
All the Oscar nominations will be announced early tomorrow morning.
We saw “The Post” over the weekend. Good (not great) movie, and I thought Meryl Streep was amazing.
Oscar nominees are out
ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINATIONS 2018
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out
Gary OIdman - Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq
**BEST ACTRESS **
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
**BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS **
Mary J Blige - Mudbound
Alison Janney - I, Tonya
Lesley Manville - Phanton Thread
Laurie Metcalf - Ladybird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape Of Water
**BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR **
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Edith + Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
**BEST ORIGINAL SONG **
Mighty River - Mudbound
Mystery Of Love - Call Me by Your Name
Remember Me - Coco
Stand Up For Something - Marshall
This Is Me - The Greatest Showman
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
BEST ADAPTATED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name - James Ivory
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter and Michael H Weber
Logan - Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly’s Game - Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound - Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick - Emily V Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out - Jordan Peele
Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor (story by Guillermo del Toro)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
**BEST DIRECTOR **
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water
**BEST PICTURE **
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
**BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY **
Bladerunner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
Shape of Water
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmet
The Silent Child
Watu Wota / All of Us
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardian of the Galaxy vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
I,Tonya
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
** BEST SOUND MIXING**
Baby Driver
Blade Runner
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
BEST MAKE UP AND HAIR STYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Awesome news for Jordan Peele and the Get Out crew! DIdn’t see Daniel K. as a nominee, but I’m not going to complain!!
The noms are a weird mix of blase (Meryl and DDL) and surprising (Get Out’s nominations, Mary J Blige? Logan? Kobe Bryant??)
I think a fun lil battle will be for costuming. I would have thought Beauty and the Beast as a shoe-in, but up against a movie that’s literally about clothing? I mean, that has to win right?
That all being said, the actual day is probably going to be boring because it’ll be all 3 Billboards and Shape of Water.
I would like to thank everyone who made this possible.
Out of the 9 best picture nominees, I’ve seen 1 and I won’t see 4 (I have extreme problems with gore/torture/violence in movies. No one wants me barfing in a theater!). Well, I guess that makes it both more pointless and more doable to watch the remaining ones.
I’m a little this way that way about Daniel Kaluuya’s nomination; he spent most of the movie reacting, and it wasn’t a memorable performance to me.
Jordan Peele’s nod for direction, though, was wholly deserved. That was a very well composed movie and very cleverly made, IMHO. I thought he nailed it.
Here are the tallies
13 - The Shape of Water
8 - Dunkirk
7 - Three Billboards
6 - Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread
5 - Blade Runner 2049, Lady Bird
4 - Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, Mudbound, SW: The Last Jedi
3 - Baby Driver, I Tonya
2 - Beauty and the Beast, Coco, The Post, Victoria & Abdul