The 2017 Road to the Oscars

While the ceremony takes place next March, the Academy officially designates the year being recognized as the awards year, so with 2017 wrapping up and some major critics and organizations starting to hand out prizes, let this be the all-purpose film awards thread for this year. And yes, plenty of things that don’t are so-so and pretty-good beat out far more exceptional fare, so we can accept that as a given and just hope that some people who really did knock a home run get some recognition along the way.

So, with the Golden Globe nominations coming out this morning, let’s start there:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

Best Director – Motion Picture
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, The Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel, Esq

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Francis McDormand, Three Billboards
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape Of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Mary J Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
The Shape Of Water, Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Post, Liz Hannah, Josh Singer
Three Billboards, Martin McDonagh
Molly’s Game, Aaron Srokin

Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
In the Fade (Germany, France)
Loveless (Russia)
The Square (Sweden, Germany, France)

Best Animated Feature Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Three Billboards, Carter Burwell
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Post, John Williams
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer

Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Home”, Ferdinand
“Mighty River”, Mudbound
“Remember Me”, Coco
“The Star”, The Star
“This Is Me”, The Greatest Showman

As for the major critics awards, here are how the winners have been distributed so far (NBR=National Board of Review; NY=NY Film Critics, LA=LA Film Critics)

Picture: CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (LA), LADY BIRD (NY), THE POST (NBR)

Actor: Chalamet (LA, NY), Hanks (NBR)

Actress: Hawkins (LA), Ronan (NY), Streep (NBR)

Supp. Actor: Dafoe (LA, NBR, NY)

Supp. Actress: Tiffany Haddish, GIRLS TRIP (NY), Metcalf (LA, NBR)

Director: Sean Baker, THE FLORIDA PROJECT (NY), del Toro (LA), Greta Gerwig, LADY BIRD (NBR)

Screenplay: The DISASTER ARTIST (NBR), GET OUT (LA), THE PHANTOM THREAD (NBR, NY)

Animated Feature: THE BREADWINNER (LA), COCO (NBR, NY)

Foreign Language Film: BPM, France (LA, NY), FOXTROT, Israel (NBR), LOVELESS (LA)

And while the various guilds are typically seen as the more reliable predictor (because their voting pools overlap somewhat with Academy membership), the Critics Choice awards have proven the most consistently aligned with the Academy’s tastes. Here are their nominations:

BEST PICTURE

The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
Tom Hanks – The Post
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Patrick Stewart – Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me by Your Name
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Hong Chau – Downsizing
Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip
Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
BEST DIRECTOR

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name
Jordan Peele – Get Out
Steven Spielberg – The Post
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer – The Post
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele – Get Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

James Ivory – Call Me by Your Name
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber – The Disaster Artist
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – Mudbound
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad, Stephen Chbosky – Wonder
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
Hoyte van Hoytema – Dunkirk
Dan Laustsen – The Shape of Water
Rachel Morrison – Mudbound
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom – Call Me By Your Name
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin – The Shape of Water
Jim Clay, Rebecca Alleway – Murder on the Orient Express
Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis – Dunkirk
Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola – Blade Runner 2049
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer – Beauty and the Beast
Mark Tildesley, Véronique Melery – Phantom Thread
BEST EDITING

Michael Kahn, Sarah Broshar – The Post
Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos – Baby Driver
Lee Smith – Dunkirk
Joe Walker – Blade Runner 2049
Sidney Wolinsky – The Shape of Water
BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Renée April – Blade Runner 2049
Mark Bridges – Phantom Thread
Jacqueline Durran – Beauty and the Beast
Lindy Hemming – Wonder Woman
Luis Sequeira – The Shape of Water
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
*
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Wonder*
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
*
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman*
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
*
The Breadwinner
Coco
Despicable Me 3
The LEGO Batman Movie
Loving Vincent*
BEST COMEDY
*
The Big Sick
The Disaster Artist
Girls Trip
I, Tonya
Lady Bird*
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
James Franco – The Disaster Artist
Chris Hemsworth – Thor: Ragnarok
Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick
Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip
Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
*
BPM (Beats Per Minute)
A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
The Square
Thelma*

The GGs again show just how good and awful they are.

Nice nods to mostly smaller films.

But Christopher Plummer for All the Money in the World? Is there a print with his scenes in it for them to review? He was still filming the replacement shots for Spacey a couple weeks ago.

There’s some stuff on the list that suggests the usual methods to earn GG noms have been applied and/or inertia. Boss Baby?

I saw a minor awards nomination list that had Kumail Nanjiani and Stephen Spielberg both for Best Director. Would have been impossible to believe such a pairing a year ago.

Yes. A print with all of Plummer’s scenes (but not fully finalized film) was screened for the Golden Globes members in time for the voting cutoff.

I’m skeptical about this because it also received nominations for Director and Actress (Michelle Williams) so a full print (even if hastily assembled) must have been shown to them in order to justify those citations, too.

That’s what I said. I don’t know what you’re skeptical of?

A full print was shown, it just apparently needed a bit more tweaking before it could be released for public view, I don’t know exactly what else needed to be done, maybe color grading, some kind of effects. But a full film in terms of acting scenes was screened for GG qualification.

This year has more potential candidates than usual - a mix of typical heavies (Spielberg etc) plus a large-ish and growing group of smaller-budget films. Usually by late December the ‘obvious’ 3 or 4 potential Best Picture winners have been locked down, but I’m not sure we’re going to get there.

The SAG nominations came out today.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson,”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Mudbound”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Remember that the actors represent the largest voting block in the Academy, so while the SAG nominees only occasionally match a perfect 5-for-5, most of the names you see here are very likely going to be Oscar nominees, too.

The even more telling info from this slate is in the Ensemble category. Although they actively discourage equating “Best Ensemble” with “Best Picture”, the fact remains that the last Best Picture winner to ***not ***get a SAG Ensemble nomination was BRAVEHEART, back in SAG’s infancy.

So even though films like THE SHAPE OF WATER and DUNKIRK are likely to get the most total Oscar nominations because of all the technical and craft categories they’ll represent, their odds of winning the Big One have dropped precipitously. At this point, it very much looks like a coin toss between BILLBOARDS and LADY BIRD (with GET OUT being the Jefferson-Smith-coin-lands-on-the-edge because only 1 horror movie has ever won Oscar’s top prize)

I wonder if the introduction of AFTRA to SAG has ameliorated any of their predictive power…

It’s a good question. The fact that THE POST was missing from the SAGs (because the screeners didn’t go out in time for the nominating deadline) may also play a factor, since it seems safe to say Hanks and Streep would’ve likely been in their respective slates if the film had been seen more by the guild members.

Some of the Oscar branches go through a “bake-off” process that reduces the total number of contenders to a smaller shortlist of films from which the final nominees will be produced. Here they are.

VISUAL EFFECTS
“Alien: Covenant”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“Kong: Skull Island”
“Okja”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Bright”
“Darkest Hour”
“Ghost in the Shell”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
“I, Tonya”
“Victoria & Abdul”
“Wonder”
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Chile, “A Fantastic Woman,” Sebastián Lelio, director
Germany, “In the Fade,” Fatih Akin, director
Hungary, “On Body and Soul,” Ildikó Enyedi, director
Israel, “Foxtrot,” Samuel Maoz, director
Lebanon, “The Insult,” Ziad Doueiri, director
Russia, “Loveless,” Andrey Zvyagintsev, director
Senegal, “Félicité,” Alain Gomis, director
South Africa, “The Wound,” John Trengove, director
Sweden, “The Square,” Ruben Östlund, director
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Mitten Media, Motto Pictures, Kartemquin Educational Films and WGBH/FRONTLINE
“Chasing Coral,” Exposure Labs in partnership with The Ocean Agency & View Into the Blue in association with Argent Pictures & The Kendeda Fund
“City of Ghosts,” Our Time Projects and Jigsaw Productions
“Ex Libris – The New York Public Library,” Ex Libris Films
“Faces Places,” Ciné Tamaris
“Human Flow,” Participant Media and AC Films
“Icarus,” Netflix Documentary in association with Impact Partners, Diamond Docs, Chicago Media Project and Alex Productions
“An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power,” Paramount Pictures and Participant Media
“Jane,” National Geographic Studios in association with Public Road Productions
“LA 92,” Lightbox
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Larm Film
“Long Strange Trip,” Double E Pictures, AOMA Sunshine Films and Sikelia
“One of Us,” Loki Films
“Strong Island,” Yanceville Films and Louverture Films
“Unrest,” Shella Films and Little by Little Films

A few updates. The guilds are starting to weigh in, and two of the most important (after the Directors and Producers, which have yet to be announced) are the Writers and Film Editors. Here are the films they’ve nominated:

WGA

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick, Written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani; Amazon Studios

Get Out, Written by Jordan Peele; Universal Pictures

I, Tonya, Written by Steven Rogers; Neon

Lady Bird, Written by Greta Gerwig; A24

The Shape of Water, Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro; Fox Searchlight

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name, Screenplay by James Ivory; Based on the Novel by André Aciman; Sony Pictures Classics

The Disaster Artist, Screenplay by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber; Based on the Book The Disaster Artist: My Life Inside the Room, the Greatest Bad Movie Ever Made by Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell; A24

Logan, Screenplay by Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold; Based on Characters from the X-Men Comic Books and Theatrical Motion Pictures; Twentieth Century Fox Film

Molly’s Game, Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin; Based on the Book by Molly Bloom; STX Entertainment

Mudbound, Screenplay by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees; Based on the Novel by Hillary Jordan; Netflix
ACE

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):
*Blade Runner 2049
*Joe Walker, ACE

Dunkirk
Lee Smith, ACE

Molly’s Game
Alan Baumgarten, ACE, Josh Schaeffer & Elliot Graham, ACE

The Post
Michael Kahn, ACE & Sarah Broshar

The Shape of Water
Sidney Wolinsky, ACE
BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY):
Baby Driver
Jonathan Amos, ACE & Paul Machliss, ACE

Get Out
Gregory Plotkin

I, Tonya
Tatiana S. Riegel, ACE

Lady Bird
Nick Houy

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jon Gregory, ACE

Also, the Golden Globes are on Sunday, so an early peak on some of the fashion, speeches, and buzz that’s building.

Oh, and a little perspective on these nominations. Over the last 5 years, of the 10 films nominated for the “Eddie” (the Editing guild award), on average 4 from the Drama category and 2 from the Comedy category went on to get Best Picture Oscar nominations.

Over the last 5 years, of the 10 films nominated by the Writers guild, on average half went on to a Best Picture Oscar nom.

Here’s a proposal for a new slate of annual awards where nomination and voting only occurs 5 years after first screening. As much as I like the idea of shining a light on more varied and personal films, that same light can expose an embarrassing lack of film culture, vision and talent. Mumblecore works as idiosyncratic spoofs of made-for-TV movies, but elevating this “cleverness” to honored art is shameful.

Ah, January, the month we’re most susceptible to be sold the worst movies marketed as the best.

Well, the Producers Guild have announced their nominations. Over the past 5 years, 8 out of 10 of these nominees went on to earn a Best Picture nod as well, so you’re very likely looking at what may be the final slate of contenders (since AMPAS usually only nominates 8-9 titles in that category).

The Big Sick
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel

Call Me By Your Name
Producers: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito

Dunkirk
Producers: Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan

Get Out
Producers: Sean McKittrick & Edward H. Hamm, Jr., Jason Blum, Jordan Peele

I, Tonya
Producers: Bryan Unkeless, Steven Rogers, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley

Lady Bird
Producers: Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill

Molly’s Game
Producers: Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal, Matt Jackson

The Post
Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger

The Shape Of Water
Producers: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale
**
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri**
Producers: Graham Broadbent & Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh

Wonder Woman
Producers: Charles Roven & Richard Suckle, Zack Snyder & Deborah Snyder

I’ve seen the following:

Lady Bird - an OK movie. Cute, nothing special.

Three Billboards - an OK, maybe even really good movie. Nothing super special, though.

The Big Sick - below average. Not horrible, but pretty bad.

Get Out - a really good movie. Worth it.

Wonder Woman - OK, but forgetable.

Dunkirk - I did not like this movie(I was stunned!). I hope it wins nothing.

Just out of curiosity then, what 2017 movies have you really liked?

Well, the below movies were better than any I listed(except Get Out):

The Last Jedi
Logan
Spider-man Homecoming
John Wick 2
Beauty and the Beast
Pirates 5 - this one surprised me the most by a mile. I know this got bashed by critics, but it was *a lot lot *better than any previous Pirates sequel.

Well, the DGA just announced their nominees. The DGA is hands-down the most reliable predictor of any Oscar category, with its winner going on to win the Academy Award 61 times in the last 69 years (or an 88% accuracy rate).

This year’s slate:

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
Jordan Peele – Get Out

Now on average, 4 of the DGA nominees go on to be nominated for the Oscar (2009 was the last year the 5 matched exactly). The most recent films that were nominated for DGA but not the Best Director Oscar were:

*American Sniper, Argo, Captain Phillips, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Inception, Les Miserables, Lion, The Martian, Zero Dark Thirty *

Note that 6 of these 9 films went on to win a combined 13 Oscars (including in one case, Best Picture) so they were films that were still in very good standing with the Academy overall.

And as for the Golden Globes? While they’re not the greatest predictors per se (especially with the Drama/Comedy split), it’s still telling to see how winners are received by the celebs in the room, so Oldman, McDormand, Ronan, Janney, Rockwell, and Del Toro all made good impressions and are, if not front-runners, seriously in the running.