No, you’re engaging the fallacy of assuming that everything all has to equal out in the end - especially in the short sample size of a 16 game season. Like there’s some supernatural force driving the bounces to go the Browns way the rest of the season. It’s the gambler’s fallacy.
The Browns are already behind 8-8 by 3 games - even if they played break-even ball the rest of the year, they’d finish 6-10 or 7-9. They’d need to play above-500 football to 8-8.
You also offered a false dichotomy. Not every game has to be explained by one team being better than the other or overlooking the other team. Sometimes teams will have a very good gameplan. Sometimes teams will be more inspired than the other for whatever reason. A bad team can play better than a team that’s better than it for one game.
Or - the teams can be close enough in skill that the variance in the outcome is pretty high. This happens a lot more than people give credit for in the NFL - there are few teams that stand way ahead or way behind of the others, and so while one team might win 65/100 hypothetical games against an inferior team, that still leaves a ton of room for the worse team to win.
If I had to buy into your false dilemma, then it’s clearly the latter - the Browns are a better team than their record indicates. That’s far more likely than the Saints just didn’t bother to try. The fact that the Browns have been in every single game but one until the last half of the last quarter seems to indicate that.
In any case, you made the statement
That is clearly wrong. Not only were they capable of keeping it close, but stomped them. You were clearly wrong. Man up and eat some crow.
Oh, obviously I was wrong in my prediction about the Browns-Saints game.
Now, in all your verbiage, I couldn’t quite make out if you are able to predict a winning season or a losing season for the Browns. I saw a lot of foo-fah with some misunderstandings about statistics and nonsense about sample size and some ers and ums and wells and buts. You claimed the Browns were just a lucky bounce here or there from winning most of their games.
It’s quite simple. I say the Browns will have a losing record at the end of the year. You say what?
That prediction is irrelevant to the issue at hand. You’re trying to wrestle away control to alleviate your embarassment over admitting being wrong by changing the terms of the discussion.
And how the fuck is what I said a misunderstanding? You say the bounces will even out for the rest of the season for the Browns - if they didn’t go their way in the first half of the season, they must go their way on the second half to reach their averages - that’s pure gambler’s fallacy.
The Browns have to win 6 of 9 to reach 8-8 which seems unlikely (7 out of 9 for it to be a winning season), although the schedule from here on out isn’t too bad.
To be clear - am I correct in interpreting that you’re essentially saying that the Browns have to win 7 out of their last 9 to prove that I’m right about them being better than their record? Seems like pretty steep requirements.
Some moderately encouraging news on the injury front. Aaron Smith does have a partial tear of the triceps and will require surgery but they aren’t putting him on IR. Doesn’t sound like he’d be available any earlier than the playoffs but at least they’re keeping that option open for now. Steve McClendon will be added to the active roster to fill in.
And more whining from poor little rich girl James Harrison:
"Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker James Harrison told Josina Anderson on Showtime’s “Inside the NFL” that because of the new rules on dangerous hits, he had his least productive game against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
“That was my least productive game this year,” Harrison reportedly explained. “We can still play the game, but it’s not the same.”"
Well, haven’t you ever had your ears pinned back before to the point that you find yourself walking on eggshells so you don’t get in trouble again? The fine levied upon him was very much a chilling effect. Now it’s in the back of his head that every time he hits somebody someone might find something wrong with it and he’ll be fined and suspended.
In light of that it’s hardly surprising that he feels that way. Surely he deserved the fine, if only to rein in his aggression, but things like that have a way of going too far.
Well, actually only sometimes, right? Wasn’t the hit on Cribbs considered okay? I still think you have to be obtuse to continue to interpret these comments as Hamlet and Chitwood have. Is it that hard to understand that if you have to start thinking about an athletic move you’re not going to do as well as when you just do things naturally as you always have? Do the concepts behind “getting into a guy’s head” and “making him think” not have meaning to you?
I think what was intended is even if he didn’t violate the letter of the law (which is obviously up for debate) the league still felt the need to rein him in since helmet to helmet hits are clearly dangerous and he has had a lot of them. In my opinion, he didn’t have a lacklustre game because he was playing soft. He had an off game because two of his linemen were out and Woodley was out. The Dolphins had no problem scheming for James Harrison with some of the supporting cast missing. Easier to blame the league than himself or his teammates is my guess.
Wait…I’m not saying that sometimes H2H hits don’t just happen, because they do. What I am saying is that in my opinion, Harrison at times intentionally hits people in the helmet with his helmet. That’s what has to stop league-wide. And it has nothing to do with being passive versus aggressive, its about not taking cheap shots or being a dirty player. Its unnecessary, in fact.
Saints are missing their top two Running Backs and both starting corners. The news could be worse right? This will be the first big test for the secondary. Unfortunately, with Smith and Keisel out it will be a lot tougher for the linebackers to create pressure and Brees is masterful at spreading the ball around. Not having to have a guy play ‘spy’ on Bush all day is a huge plus heading into this one. His stats may not match his promise but he does create a lot of space for his teammates when he’s in there.
Still, this indicates a bit of a problem. Actually, it’s a BIG problem.
The Saints couldn’t run, and everybody knew it. Yet the Steelers lost via the passing game. How is it that the Steelers knew it (they had to know it) yet they didn’t stop the pass?
Life’s a bitch, isn’t it?
At least the Steelers are still tied for 1st (as it were…FUCK THE RAVENS) and the Jets, Bengals and Buttboys lost. Small consolation, but there it is.
I kinda figured that we would lose via the pass, but not the way we did, actually. It was not like Brees picked us apart. A few big plays did us in.
What killed us was show horrible Ben played. I was shocked by that. He looked tentative and uncomfortable from the get go. He was really guiding his passes. I thought the game plan was horrible. Our running game is workable. It isn’t something you can build drives on, yet most of the first half, Arians had nothing but runs and flanker screens, almost as if there was something wrong with Ben and they had gameplanned around it.
Finally, stop fucking trying 50 yard field goals as if they are like 35 yarders. We would have been leading at halftime if we’d fucking knock that shit off.
I had high hopes (well, not that high but higher than usual) for the playcalling today. I loved that they started with that screen to Mendenhall. Also, this is one of the few teams that those inside blast runs are going be successful against. The Saints were leaving the middle of the field open with those blitzes, in other words they were showing the exact same vulnerabilities as the Steelers do on a regular basis. Why not an inside TE screen, a draw play, the very same things that kill us in those situations. Ben didn’t have time to get the ball to his hot reads and it didn’t matter because he wasn’t on the same page as them anyway. His reaction made it look like Randle El screwed up at least two zone reads. Who knows?
The defense mostly played well really considering the situation. This loss has to go on the shoulders of the coaches more than anyone. Poor clock management and an inability to adapt the gameplan to what the Saints were doing. Tomlin’s challenge on Moore was a waste of time but then they let Mendenhall’s potential TD go by unchallenged.
Another fine for James Harrison today- $20, 000 this time for the late hit on Drew Brees. It was clearly a penalty and a penalty was called. A $20k fine? I don’t think so.
In other news, the only player on the injury list is Aaron Smith. Not bad for this point in the season.
The fines get ratcheted up for repeat offenses, and it’s Harrison’s third fine this season. With the league’s recent focus on illegal hits and Harrison’s public hissy fit, he’s lucky he wasn’t suspended.