Here is a link to my post about the Animated and Live Short nominees that prompted this thread. (Thanks @Elendil_s_Heir!)
I’ve only seen four of the Best Picture nominees, but I expect that I’ll see 2-3 more by the ceremony.
Out of Mank, Nomadland, Minari, and Promising Young Woman, I’d vote for Nomadland (Chloe Zhao is an amazing filmmaker), but if I was betting on one of the four, I’d go with Mank. It just seems to me that this year, the Oscar electorate is going to be exhausted by COVID, and, out of all the nominees, Mank is the one I’d describe as a “comfort food” movie.