Let me clarify: I don’t think Trump will actually succeed in finding generals who would in any way help him pull off a coup.
What I do think he is absolutely capable of, however, is creating a lot of chaos, and as a result, there may be a considerable difference between what we assume he’s capable of, what he actually attempts to do, and what he actually achieves. Pessimists (myself included) may tend to over-estimate what he will actually achieve; optimists, on the other hand, may underestimate what he might actually attempt, and moreover, the long term impact that this will have on our political institutions long, long after he’s out of office on January 20th.
OK. So far all he is doing is making himself look more and more ridiculous, for those not watching FOX. A screaming match in the White House in the clown car of his advisors. It’s going to get crazier, and he’ll make it as difficult for Biden as possible so he can start “campaigning” against him
Surely, but I think the most important question right now is how difficult is he willing to make it for Mitch McConnell and the military brass.
If he demands Tuberville (or someone) challenge the Electoral Vote count on the Senate side, while mobs of MAGA supporters are outside the capital building, it is suddenly the mother of all “oh shit” votes for every GOP Senator. How many will realistically buck Trump and vote against the challenge of the electors from PA, WI, MI, and GA? 3? 5? Does that effectively end their career in the GOP?
If he attempt to invoke the insurrection act or some executive power to challenge the validity of the election and stop the inauguration, who will be the one to tell him no? Where, exactly, will it stop? And will he make somebody stop him?
At the end of the day I think he fears abject failure and humiliation more than anything else, so he won’t make the military escort him out of the White House. He may not even force a Senate vote because he’s too scared it might go strongly against him (like only 5 or so Senators supporting his challenge). But I’m less confident of the last point and have enough doubt about the first to be somewhat terrified.
You guys are taking doomscrolling to a whole new level of doomposting. Trump has lost every single effort to hold on to the presidency; it’s not going to work all of a sudden. Yes, the GOP is trying to skate by without riling up Trump’s base but he won’t get support if he tries to declare martial law. Trump will definitely stir up shit and make people uncomfortable. There will be Trumpists who will never agree that Biden won (but then there are still Dopers who go on about the 2000 election). Take a deep breath. Biden will be president at the appointed hour.
The other attempts were at least quasi-legal. This would just be declaring himself dictator. All bets would be off then.
I’m sure Trump would be happy if someone made him dictator, but he wasn’t exactly born on the mean streets. He isn’t going to put forth the effort if it takes away from playing golf.
On 19 January the presidential SS detail gets orders to stand down ( or prepare a presidential visit to Moskou ) on arrival they are arrested. A group of the unmarked federal thugs Trump has been testdriving in Portland arrive at the White House to “temporarily” take control of the facility (all carrying perfectly legit orders from the SoD).
Similarly the guards at the pentagon are replaced.
Later that day all personnel at the Pentagon are made to swear loyalty to Trump or are arrested,
On 20 Jan early in the morning Trump declares martial law citing “election fraud” and his AG issues a warrant for Biden’s arrest: the aforementioned federal thugs move to execute this order.
Who’s going to stop the SS and anyone at the Pentagon from resisting any arrest attempt (carried out by whom?) with lethal force? In this scenario, there’s no way I can see that resisting arrest would be a crime in of itself, so what do they have to lose? In a conflict like that, I’ll put my money on the professional bodyguards and the military.
I don’t know how many armed personnel there are in the Pentagon, but I’m betting there are more than a thousand. Do you think they’ll all just let a bunch of armed yahoos waltz in there and arrest the Chiefs of Staff? Why would any of them surrender, when all they have to do is close the gate for a few hours and wait for the new President to cancel the order?
No, they all receive completely legal orders to report for duty on some base in Alaska. They are relieved by people carrying completely legit orders to do so.(yes, all 1000 or so). If the SoD is a toadie how difficult do you think this is?
I don’t think you understand the concept of the chain of command. The Secretary of Defense gives orders to generals, not privates. If the Pentagon security staff receives SoC orders to leave their posts, they won’t leave; instead, they’ll ask their direct commanders what to do, who will ask their direct commanders, and so on all the way up to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who will aren’t idiots and will tell them to stay where they are. Donald Trump himself could bang his fist on the Pentagon’s front door, and the private on the other side won’t open it unless his own commander tells him to. That’s how it works.
I sure hope all the individuals on those key positions are principaled enough to do as you describe.
But remember moving around personnel before 20-1 is perfectly legal and completely within Trumps authority. He only is breaking laws the moment he orders his toadies to act to extend his regime beyond 20-1. And even then it might be within his authority (in the eyes of a friendly judge).
I really hope this ends with Biden taking office on 20-1, but there sure have been taken a lot of steps in the direction of an “autogolpe”.
the testdriving of the federal thugs in Portland (chain of command: ha!)
the replacing of key figures in the civilian leadership of the DoD.
the non-stop whining about “fraud” a “stolen election” etc.
Remember his arguments don’t need to convince you, they need to convince enough of his toadies that they are on the side of angels. Then he only has to move said toadies into positions of authority and the coup is done. — “All hail Emperor Jared I”.
Hoping institutional inertia will automagically prevent this is aiding and abetting them. At this point I would be making sure my representatives have enough funds to finance significant private security. I really hope they won’t need it, but a little armed opposition would make the logistics of the coup orders of magnitude more difficult.
First of all, it’s not just a matter of principle, it’s a matter of CYA - the most powerful force in the military. I’ve been a soldier. If I’d have received a letter signed by the Secretary of Defense ordering to do something, the first thing I’d do is go to my Captain and ask him “What the hell is this? What should I do?”, and if he’d answer, “It’s OK - just ignore it”, I’d know my ass is covered. And I know he’d do the exact same thing with the Lt. Colonel if he received a letter just like it.
Second of all, anyone receiving such a radical order right before Jan. 20 will think to themselves, “Should I obey today’s President, or tomorrow’s President?”, and I’m willing to bet that 99% will choose the latter. Disobeying orders is only a crime if they court martial you, and I don’t see the Biden Administration pressing charges against servicemembers who supported it.
Mitch is doing his damndest to keep any Senator from objecting, precisely because it will put every Republican Senator on record as either supporting baseless conspiracy theories or betraying Trump. And if forced to it, the VAST majority of the Republican Caucus will choose the former. It’ll still fail because of the Democratic House, and it’ll probably fail in the Senate too due to the few remaining sane Republicans.
In some ways, supporting Trump in this vote is a no-brainer politically. Their base will eat them alive in the next primary if they don’t. But Trump and his hard core supporters will never stop demanding more — vote against all Biden’s illegitimate nominees, shut down this illegal government, impeach! And how do you say no after you’re on record that it WAS an illegitimate election?
The political risk here is that the general public will get tired of this shit, and will blame Republicans. The Rs are in a golden position to take back full control of Congress in 2022, but risk it all if they come off as a bunch of looneys.
Ammon Bundy is now working to organize them in a group called ''People’s Rights" or something like that. He already has a large group of followers and the experience and tools to make this a nationwide group. There will be real trouble and it may well be widespread and large-scale.
To use climate change as an analogy, it’s not that I’m predicting the end of winter, but the end of winter as we have come to know it. Yes, there will still be snow - even blizzards. Snowmen will still be built 50 years from now. Moreover, I can’t predict specific weather on specific days. But I can look at the general trend and come to the conclusion that the future ain’t good.
That’s what I see happening in the United States. Whether Trump even declares martial law, and would he be able to find a general to carry out his order? Who knows…and who cares? It doesn’t take an oracle to figure out that we are on the downward slope and that this slide downward will continue after January 20th, and Trump is absolutely accelerating that slide.
I highlighted a huge caveat that makes your statement meaningless. All is sane folks may think he looks ridiculous, but there are 70 million people who voted for him. A rather large percentage of them seem to be so trapped in a right wing echo chamber* that they actually believe the Democrats used massive fraud to declare Biden the winner.
When you start with that premise, a whole lot of craziness starts to be logical. I mean, think about the implications of view you would feel of there was massive fraud that tipped the balance of the election to Trump. And then all the election officials and courts seemed to just go along with it and ignore the fraud. Wouldn’t you feel at your wit’s end as to how to restore democracy?
Hell, look how pissed off we are at the Republicans in Congress and administration officials just going right along with whatever
nonsense Trump spouts, delaying the transition, refusing to acknowledge that Biden won, defending Trump’s abuse of the court system s as of there is some legitimate argument to new made in his favor.
And why aren’t they loudly protesting even the idea of Trump declaring Martial Law? They have their heads down and are acting like Trump can’t be serous about the idea, but they have systematically reinforced his worst behaviors and refused to show any backbone out of political loyalty so much that all they have done is empower him to do more.
Collude with Russia to smear Clinton? “Well, there’s not enough evidence that what he did rises to the level to be prosecutable.” Use the Presidency to personally enrich himself through policy and government action? “His kids are running the business.” Hold up financial support Congress allocated to Ukraine to get the Ukrainian President to announce criminal investigation of Biden to weaken his political opponent? “I think he’s learned his lesson.”
We are on the verge of all out civil war. I don’t think that’s hyperbole. A sizeable fraction of the American people are armed and pissed off and willing to believe anything this guy says. There have been plots to overthrow governors, individuals going to crazy lengths to prove voter fraud such as that Houston former cop who held an air conditioner repair man at gunpoint looking for fraudulent ballots. There have been large protest rallies. It wouldn’t take much to push some of these people into armed rebellion.
And I just don’t accept that Trump is sensible enough not to try it. He believes he can do anything, and so far Congress has let him.