The Baseball HOF Class of 2009 thread

[pseudotriton_ruber_ruber]

@Hawkeyeop

mediocrity has value.

Not the kind of value I’m counting towards the HOF. Yes, it helped the Phillies and Expos and Reds to have Pete Rose on the field instead of me his last few years, but he wasn’t a very good player his last five or six years and I’ll give him all the record for those years that the he earned in the stat books. But in the HOF? No.

[storyteller0910]

@pseudotriton_ruber_ruber

This is an underrated concept. I think if we designated “inner circle” HOFers (Mays, Mathewson, Schmidt, etc.), outer circle HOFers (Ashburn, Kirby Puckett, Rizzuto), close-but no cigar HOFers (Hodges, Mattingly, Trammell), but in maybe two or three further gradations, there would be fewer complaints. Only the inner circle guys would be eligible for certain honors in Cooperstown–statues and the like–and their plaques maybe would be in a separate room, like that.

That’s basically the Bill Simmons Pyramid Concept for the Hall of Fame.

ESPN.com: Page 2 : Pyramid scheme could really help Hall

[VarlosZ]

@pseudotriton_ruber_ruber

I haven’t seen what this would do to any of the candidates, but I’ve always liked the idea of setting the cutoff for some all-inclusive stat like Win Shares extremely high–say at 20 Win Shares (30 being a normal MVP candidate, 20 being a normal All-Star candidate)–and then counting up, which would essentially eliminate all accumulated numbers, which is what TJ and to some extent Blyleven bring to the table. What I’m looking for in a HOFer is above and beyond mere longevity at an above average level. I want excellence. I want to count a typical 13-11, 3.90 ERA in 188 IP year as basically nothing, a 18-9, 3.20 ERA in 220 IP for a few points, and a 24-6 2.35 ERA in 275 IP for a lot.

I guess it just comes down to personal preference, but shouldn’t a guy with a *relatively *short or low peak get credit for being somewhat above average for a decade at the end of his career, as opposed to a guy who was a baseball god for four or five years but contributed very little aside from that? That’s a ton of wins he’s contributing. Why can’t there be more than one type of Hall of Famer?

I, too, think Jay Jaffe’s process finds a nice middle ground: add up a player’s career WARP scores, but count the scores from his five (I think) best seasons double.

[Hawkeyeop]

@pseudotriton_ruber_ruber

Not the kind of value I’m counting towards the HOF. Yes, it helped the Phillies and Expos and Reds to have Pete Rose on the field instead of me his last few years, but he wasn’t a very good player his last five or six years and I’ll give him all the record for those years that the he earned in the stat books. But in the HOF? No.

Note I’m not giving extra credit to a player for merely playing. If you play at a replacement level it does not help your case. But average has value. If Pedro was average this year the Mets make the playoffs. If Jim Thome was below average then the White Sox don’t. I don’t think we can dismiss such things as trivial.

[pseudotriton_ruber_ruber]

Again, we’ve simply got different cutoffs. If someone could figure out how to play, and contribute a little bit, until he was 85 years old, the final 45 years of his playing career accumulating 3 or 4 of your all-important “over replacement value” points, that might push him past a better player who retired at 30 in your estimate but never in mine.

I don’t disagree with you in general, but this is the HOF we’re discussing here, the best of the best of the best. “And I hepped!” just doesn’t cut it on this level.

[John_DiFool]

@What_Exit

He is seriously overated by the handful that think he is worthy. Before he goes is worthier pitchers like Jim Kaat should be in. He was never anything special and Tommy John was.

On what basis can you make this statement?

I am currently embroiled in a big discussion of Mike Mussina’s worthiness in aother forum. As part of this I made a quick comparison of the peaks of Blyleven, Kaat, and John, which I’ll cut and paste here. The top row is the top 5 seasons of ERA+ over the pitcher’s career, the bottom row is where they ranked in terms of innings pitched that year vs. the league:

Blyleven:

158/151/144/142/140
4th/xxx/xxx/xxx/7th

Jim Kaat:

131/130/129/126/125
1st/2nd/xxx/3rd/4th

Tommy John:

161/138/137/135/120
xxx/xxx/2nd/xxx/10th

Of the 3, Blyleven clearly outclasses his competition-peak is comfortably better than John’s (who was in and out of the rotation even in his best seasons) and Kaat’s (whose only finishes in top 10 in innings are those 4 seasons above, while Bert was top 10 9 times). So I don’t see how Blyleven is “nothing special” while the other two are deserving when they all basically have the same win totals and win percentages and Blyleven was better his his best seasons.

[Edit: I see someone already beat me to it-thanks Jimmy Chitwood. ]

[furt]

What Exit, you’re obstinately refusing to even acknowledge, let alone refute the arguments for Blyleven. Fine then: what’s your case for Tommy John?

So far as I can tell, the entirety of your case rests on winning percentage (which ignores the fact that Blyleven played on horrible teams) and for “being the pioneer of baseballs most famous surgery” … a title it seems to me is far better suited to Dr. Frank Jobe, not to his patient.*

Make your case.

*Actually come to think of it – Jobe might well be a worthy HOF candidate.

[What_Exit]

@furt

What Exit, you’re obstinately refusing to even acknowledge, let alone refute the arguments for Blyleven. Fine then: what’s your case for Tommy John?

So far as I can tell, the entirety of your case rests on winning percentage (which ignores the fact that Blyleven played on horrible teams) and for “being the pioneer of baseballs most famous surgery” … a title it seems to me is far better suited to Dr. Frank Jobe, not to his patient.*

Make your case.

I already said that they have probably convinced me that John is not worthy of the hall. So what case should I make?

[HeyHomie]

When does the Veteran’s Committee vote, and where can I see a list of eligible players?

[Skywatcher]

@Jimmy_Chitwood

PEAKS:

John’s 5 highest ERA+ full seasons:
161
138
137
135
121

Blyleven’s:
158
151
144
142
140

Highest strikeout seasons: John 138, 138, 131 (never in top 10); Blyleven 258, 249, 233 (13 seasons in top 5).

Best 3 overall seasons arbitrarily selected by me:

John:
1968: 10-5 25 games 5 CG 1 Shutout 177.3 Inn. 49 BB/117 K 1.98 ERA 161 ERA+ 1.038 WHIP
1977: 20-7 31 G 11 CG 3 SO 220.3 50/123 2.78 138 1.248
1979: 21-9 37 g 17 CG 3 SO 276.3 65/111 2.96 137 1.205

Blyleven:
1973: 20-17 40 G 25 CG 9 SO 325.0 67/ 258 2.52 158 1.117
1974: 17-17 37 G 19 CG 3 SO 281.0 77/249 2.66 142 1.142
1977: 14-12 30 G 15 CG 5 SO 234.7 69/182 2.72 151 1.065

Also note that Blyleven continued to be at that peak for pretty much that entire period.

---

LIFETIME NUMBERS

Career ERA: John 3.34, Blyleven 3.31
Career ERA+: John 110, Blyleven 118
Career Innings: John 4710, Blyleven 4970
Career K: John 2245, Blyleven 3701
Career BB: John 1259, Blyleven 1322
Career Wins: John 288, Blyleven 287
Career CG: John 162, Blyleven 242
Career Shutouts: John 46, Blyleven 60
Career WHIP: John 1.283, Blyleven 1.198

I think the comparison speaks for itself without my even emphasizing certain numbers or putting them in a favorable order or anything at all.

Also the HoF Monitor.
Blyleven:
Black Ink: Pitching - 16 (133) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 237 (25) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 50.0 (38) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 120.5 (69) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

John:
Black Ink: Pitching - 8 (288) (Average HOFer ≈ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 137 (117) (Average HOFer ≈ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 44.0 (54) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 111.0 (79) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

@HeyHomie

When does the Veteran’s Committee vote, and where can I see a list of eligible players?

December 8th the results are announced. Baseball-reference.com has a list on the front page:

Post-1943 Ballot: All are on the ballot as players:

* Dick Allen, 1B-3B, RoY, 1972 MVP, 7 A-S, 351 HR, .292 BA, 156 OPS+
* Gil Hodges, 1B, 8 A-S, 3 GG, 370 HR, .273 BA, 120 OPS+
* Jim Kaat, P, 283-237, 3 A-S, 16 GG, 1966 TSN AL Pitcher of Year
* Tony Oliva, RF-DH, RoY,2x 2nd in MVP, 8 A-S, 1 GG, 3 BA Titles, .304 BA, 220 HR, 131 OPS+
* Al Oliver, CF-1B, 7 A-S, .303 BA, 219 HR, 121 OPS+
* Vada Pinson, CF, 2 A-S, 1 GG, .286 BA, 256 HR, 110 OPS+
* Ron Santo, 3B, 9 A-S, .277 BA, 342 HR, 125 OPS+
* Luis Tiant, P, 229-172, 3 A-S, 2 ERA Titles
* Joe Torre, C-1B-3B, 9 A-S, 1 GG, 1971 MVP & BA title, .297 BA, 252 HR, 128 OPS+
* Maury Wills, SS, 1962 MVP, 5 A-S, 2 GG, 20 HR, .281 BA, 586 SB, 88 OPS+

Living Hall of Famers may vote for up to four. 75% required for induction.

Pre-1943 Ballot: All are on the ballot as players:

* Bill Dahlen, SS, 1891-1911, 2457 H, 547 SB, .272 BA, 109 OPS+
* Wes Ferrell, P, 1927-1941, 193-128, 2 A-S, 1935 2nd in MVP, 116 ERA+
* Joe Gordon, 2B, 1938-1943&1946-1950, 1942 MVP, 9 A-S, 1530 H, .268 BA, 120 OPS+
* Sherry Magee, LF, 1904-1919, 2169 H, 441 SB, .291 BA, 136 OPS+
* Carl Mays, P, 1915-1929, 207-126, 120 ERA+
* Allie Reynolds, P, 1942-1954, 182-107, 110 ERA+, 6 A-S
* Vern Stephens, SS, 1941-1955, 1859 H, .286 BA, 119 OPS+, 8 A-S
* Mickey Vernon, 1B, 1939-1943&1946-1960, 2495 H, 172 HR, .286 BA, 116 OPS+, 7 A-S, 2x BA Title
* Bucky Walters, P, 1931-1950, 6 A-S, 1939 MVP and TrplCrwn, 2x ERA title, 3.30 ERA, 115 ERA+
* Deacon White, 3B-C, 1871-1890, 2066 H, .312 BA, 127 OPS+, 2x BA Title

Committee of writers, execs and HOFers (12 total) may vote for up to four. Nine votes required for induction.

I’m a Joe Gordon man myself.

[Wilson]

Henderson, Blyleven, Raines, Trammell.

I go back and forth on Rice and always end up with no.

I haven’t decided what to do with McGwire yet, so it’s no again for him.

For the veterans - Torre and Dick Allen. BOY could Dick Allen hit. People always talk about how feared Jim Rice was as a hitter - Dick Allen put him to shame.

[zamboniracer]

@Wilson

… Dick Allen. BOY could Dick Allen hit. People always talk about how feared Jim Rice was as a hitter - Dick Allen put him to shame.

Boy, you ain’t kidding. He was a god with the White Sox in 1972. The numbers don’t look like much now, but in context they were great.

As for my current ballot

• Harold Baines - No
• Jay Bell - Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha. No
• Bert Blyleven - Yes
• David Cone - No
• Andre Dawson - Maybe soon
• Ron Gant - No
• Mark Grace - No
• Rickey Henderson - Yes
• Tommy John - Yes
• Don Mattingly - No
• Mark McGwire - Yes
• Jack Morris - Yes
• Dale Murphy - No
• Jesse Orosco - No
• Dave Parker - No
• Dan Plesac - see Jay Bell
• Tim Raines - Yes
• Jim Rice - Yes
• Lee Smith - No
• Alan Trammell - No
• Greg Vaughn - No
• Mo Vaughn - No
• Matt Williams - Maybe next year.

[Munch]

@What_Exit

I already said that they have probably convinced me that John is not worthy of the hall. So what case should I make?

I’d actually like to hear a decent argument in favor of even glancing at winning percentage. And in conjunction, whether you feel that Blyleven’s and John’s would change at all if you swapped the teams they were playing for.

[Parthol]

My ballot would be:

• Harold Baines - No
• Jay Bell - No
• Bert Blyleven - Yes – I believe he’s the best eligible pitcher player not currently in the Hall.
• David Cone - No
• Andre Dawson - Almost, but no.
• Ron Gant - No
• Mark Grace - No
• Rickey Henderson - Yes. A no brainer.
• Tommy John - Almost, but no.
• Don Mattingly - No
• Mark McGwire - No
• Jack Morris - No. Highly overrated, based on our memories of a couple great playoff games.
• Dale Murphy - No
• Jesse Orosco - No
• Dave Parker - No
• Dan Plesac - No
• Tim Raines - Yes. Highly underrated.
• Jim Rice - Almost, but no. And I say that as a Red Sox fan. Too one-dimensional, too short a career.
• Lee Smith - No
• Alan Trammell - Yes, but barely.
• Greg Vaughn - No
• Mo Vaughn - No
• Matt Williams - No

Regarding Bert Blyleven, and the arguments in his favor:

Keep in mind that Wins and Win% are lousy stats for evaluating a pitcher, since they’re highly influenced by the offenses of his team. They measure a combination of things, of which the pitcher is only responsible for one. I am much more interested in how many runs the pitcher prevented and how many innings they pitched. I am secondarily interested in how many men they strike out, and how many base runners they allow. I am not at all interested in wins. This is not “stat cherry picking” for Blyleven’s case; I’m just attempting to put more weight, generally, into more meaningful statistics.

Now, consider that:

• Blyleven was in the top 10 in ERA+ TWELVE times in his career, including one 1st-place finish, three 2nd-place finishes, one 4th-place finish, and two 5th-place finishes.

• He’s 14th all time in innings pitched.

• He’s 5th all time in strikeouts

• He’s 8th all time in career shutouts, if that sort of dominance floats your boat.

I think Blyleven is not just deserving of being in the Hall, but that he would clearly be in the top half of pitchers there, were he elected today.

[GrandWino]

It’s official…

Jim Rice FINALLY made it in… And of course, Rickey got in as well on his first try. Dawson and Blyleven were 3rd and 4th but didn’t even break 70% this year.

[RickJay]

Rice isn’t a terribly good choice when there were better players on the ballot, but I guess he isn’t ther worst player in the Hall of Fame. Henderson was a stupidly easy choice and the fools who didn’t vote for him should be ashamed of themselves.

The interesting result to me was that of Mark McGwire, who got 21% or something like that. It’s clear the voters don’t like him and don’t like his silence on the roids. Time often heals “Character” wounds so I’ll be interested in seeing if he numbers go up over the next three or four years, but the early returns suggest a guy with 583 home runs is not a good bet to make the Hall of Fame. That’s really quite something.

[What_Exit]

Am I allowed to be amazed that some writers did not vote for Rickey? What the hell were they thinking?

As to Rice, I always though he was a borderline HOFer but I know I am in a minority on this board. He was a scary, dare I say it, Clutch Bat.
On Preview: RickJay, I noticed the Big Mac actually got less votes this years. I am hopeful this means he will never go in.

[wolfman]

Am I allowed to be amazed that some writers did not vote for Rickey? What the hell were they thinking?

They are the asses who think that since none of ‘the greats’ got in with 100%, they will refuse to vote for an obvious lock, so nobody will get 100% ever.

[Munch]

Tim Raines at 22.6% is a disgrace. Other than a being a nice collection of knickknacks and milestone-related paraphenalia, I don’t have much desire to go to Cooperstown much anymore.