I’m going to go a step further.
I believe that Barry Bonds’s 2004 is in fact the most valuable season any player has ever had, in the entire history of modern professional baseball. I believe it is more valuable than any season ever posted by Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Walter Johnson, or anyone else. Maybe not quite as valuable as Honus Wagner’s crazy 1908 season, but I am absolutely certain it is the most valuable season since the integration of baseball. While Albert Pujols is having a very fine year, I am not even convinced he’s the second most valuable player on his own team; Rolen and Edmonds are equally valuable. Furthermore it is almost 100% certain that St. Louis would win the division without Pujols; a 15 game lead is way more than any one player (except Bonds) is worth.
Let me try to make this case without resorting to complicated things like VORP or Win Shares.
Here are the most prolific offenses in the National League as of September 27:
- St. Louis, 827 runs
- San Francisco, 819 runs
- Colorado, 808 runs
- Philadelphia, 797 runs
Given that San Francisco plays in the league’s worst hitter’s park, except maybe Petco, it is quite reasonable to conclude that they have, in fact, the league’s top offense.
Now here are their rankings, out of 16 National League teams, in three offensive categories:
On base percentage - .358, first
Slugging percentage - .438, fifth
Stolen bases - 41, sixteenth
Obviously they are not scoring all those runs with their blazing speed. They are doing it primarily by getting on base a LOT - they have an OBP twelve points higher than any other team. There’s more room between them and the second place team (Colorado) than there is between Colorado and sixth place.
The only reason they have an OBP that high is Barry Bonds.
If Bonds got on base at a normal clip for a left fielder - let’s be generous and say .360, since it’s a hitter’s position - the Giants would have had 146 fewer baserunners this year just from him getting on base. That’s SIXTEEN points of on base percentage off the team’s total… dropping them to seventh in the league. An average left fielder would also have hit 25-30 fewer home runs and would get fewer base hits per at bat, dropping the team’s slugging percentage about 28 points, dropping them from fifth to eleventh.
And I’m being conservative, because I am not counting the benefit of giving an additional 146 at bats to his teammates - but you have to count that, which is why teams with high OBPs score so many runs. That’s got to be worth 20 runs right there.
Without Barry Bonds, the best offense in the National League would be average at best. Bonds has created 183 runs - a difference of what, 110, 120 runs over AVERAGE? Without him they’d be so far out of contention they’d need a ladder to see third place.