If he stays healthy, I say the guy has a chance of hitting more than 70. (Remember when 61 seemed unbreakable?) He already has 32 HRs with 101 games left to play. He plays in a relatively small ball park (Pac Bell measures only 307 feet down the right foul line; he hits most of his home runs to right) where the wind usually blows out. Pitching in the NL hasn’t been great and it seems the NL West has most of the worst pitchers. Also, the Giants have to play in Denver six more times this season. (More home runs have been hit in Denver since the Rockies started playing than in any other NL city.)
Well, I’m not sure about the NL West having the worst pitchers. What do you call Schilling, Johnson, Brown, Park, Hampton, and Jones? But everything else seems to be in Bonds’ favor. The only thing that makes it unlikely is that he is putting up homers at way beyond his normal pace. McGwire had hit 49 his rookie year and 52 and 58 the years before hitting 70. Bonds has never even hit 50. If he has a “normal” rest of the season, he’ll hit around 6 homers per month, leaving him short of 60, much less the vaunted 70 mark. Still, it’ll be fun to watch. I’d also like to see if he can break Ruth’s record .847 slugging percentage for a single season. Not as well known as the homerun record, but I find it much more impressive, as no one else has even gotten close (except of course for Ruth, who slugged .846 the next year!).
I would also say that the NL West has some pretty good pitching. Bonds may also be hurt by playing in Pac Bell Park which has proven to be a pitcher’s park. Dodger Stadium is another tough place to hit a home run. However, Bonds does get to play nine times in Coors Field.
Bonds may also suffer mentally because it’s likely that people won’t want him to break the record. McGwire and Sosa seemed to have much better PR.
Let’s take a shot at this.
ESPN projects 84, but what they’re doing is extrapolating projected homers at the rate Bonds has hit them so far this year. (IE, if he homers at the same rate he’s doing now, he’ll end up with 84)
I don’t believe that’s a safe assumption. The assumption I would make (and as part of my participation in various fantasy leagues, I have to project stats throughout the year, at least when I’m offered trades) is that from here on out, he’ll homer at close to his career rate.
Bonds, according to ESPN, is projected to get 292 more ABs from now until the end of the season. In his career, he’s averaged a home run every 14.5 ABs. If he reverts to his career rate, he’ll hit 20 more.
Maybe that’s a little low…he’s having a good year, is in a groove. I’ll arbitrarily tack on five more homers.
So I’m predicting 57. Take that for as little as it’s worth.
Seeing as how baseball is headed for another lengthy work stoppage, it’s appropriate that Barry Bonds will come along and break the single-season home run record.
After all that smiley Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa did to win back fans after the last strike, it seems only right that greedy, surly, charmless prick Barry Bonds will come along, to remind the fans what the average player is REALLY like.
I say he’ll hit 75 homers, and will be BOOED by the entire stadium, on the night he passes out McGwire.
I wasn’t on the board before the 1998 season so I’m not sure. How many people doubted that McGwire and Sosa would break the home run record? I mean, who could expect Sosa to hit as many home runs in one month that he did? Obviously its a wait and see kind of deal but I’m going to go with Bonds hitting at least 60 this year. Might not break the record but he’ll get fairly close.
Only if he does it in St. Louis. You are severely overestimating peoples’ attachment to McGwire’s record. If he does it in San Francisco, people will go insane. I think he can do it, but it would help a lot if Jeff Kent would get hot. Barry’s also leading the world in intentional walks, something that would stop - or at least slow down - if Kent started acting like the reigning MVP.
[url="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/ml/stats/2001/batlead_by_slg_0.htmlSlugging stats for both leagues as of today (top 15 only). Other stats are easily available on that page. Bonds is currently at a phenomenal .891. Second-best is Diamondback Luis Gonzalez at “only” .729!
Barry had a bad weekend against the Athletics, getting no hits on both Friday and Saturday and only one hit yesterday. (However, he walked a lot.) The Giants take today off, and then play three in Anaheim.
Ahem!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/ml/stats/2001/batlead_by_slg_0.html
[sub]Didn’t use Preview…[/sub]
- Because I said so.
When I was a little kid, Bonds was my hero. Of course I was a Pirates fan then. I briefly tried to be a Giants fan when he moved out West, but they never won.
Bonds is up to 34 now, thanks to the feeble pitching of the Anaheim Angels. Lord knows what he’ll do when the Giants play the equally feeble Texas Rangers after the All-Star break.
I should’ve mentioned interleague play in the OP. Bonds has the benefit of playing the worst division in the AL in interleague play (except for Seattle, of course).
I’m a die-hard Cards fan and Bonds is killing me. If he can stay healthy, I think Bonds will hit about 75. He can’t keep up this amazing pace all year, but I think the great start he got off to will carry him if he ever starts to slump.
If he stays healthy, McGwire’s record is going down. But he won’t be booed in St. Louis. We’ll be disappointed, but I can’t imagine the fans here booing someone for that. I don’t think the record is old enough to have developed the aura of unbreakable majesty.
The only reason besides health problems that may keep Bonds from breaking it is pressure from the press. When McGwire did it, he split the spotlight with Sosa. If Bonds goes after it, he’ll be the sole focus of relentless media attention.
I’m riding the Barry Gravy Train in my fantasy league, but I think he’s going to hit a wall come August.
He’ll heat back up in September and end with 64.
Now, for my other team, if Jeff Kent will just get hot…
Holy crap! He’s at 36! It’s not even July and he’s already more than half-way to 70, AND he’s 12 games ahead of the pace set by McGwire in 1998!
If the Giants were in the AL West, he’d probably hit 100.
Last year he hit 49, while clubbing a homer every 10 at-bats. That is a better pace than the one’s maintained by several 50 home run hitters.
In 1999 he hit 34 homers in 103 games, well on pace to reach 50 had injuries not prevented him from playing the full schedule.
In about 112 games played during the strike-shortened, infamous 1994 season, he ripped the cover out of 37 balls, once again on pace for 50 over the course of a full season.
I truly believe that, if injury free, he will break the home run mark. The slugging porcentage plateau, however, seems unreachable, even though right now he is at about 920-930, which is downright awesome, spectacular and fucking amazing.
After Friday’s 2 homers, he is on pace for 87, assuming he is rested once in a while, like he has been so far. If he plays the remaining games and adheres to the form shown so far, he is poised to club 91. Yes, 91!!!
My mind gets dizzy as these possibilities are contemplated. Of course, he will not hit that many, but assuming he slows down his rhythm to a mere homer every 7.5 at bats–from his current 1 out of 5.5–he should easily top 70. Taking into account the cushion he has and disregarding the likelihood of injuries, he should crack the record and end up with around 75 dingers.
For those of you wanting a glimpse at the future:
2001 = single season home run record is set.
2002 = inauguration of 500/500 club.
2003 = Godfather Willie’s 660 homers are surpassed.
I could tell you more, but then it would not be as fun, wouldn’t it?
BTW, did you see him running down first base trying to beat out a single, on yesterday’s game. Man, he is really getting slow!
May the force be with you, Barry!
Geez, I thought that the PTB were going to cut down on offense in baseball games. But then they went on and built a new park with 307 foot foul lines? Make up your minds.
Bonds is in the last year of his current contract. He is going oto the bargaining table with a bang.
Would it have been clearer had proper grammar been respected? As long as pitchers keep feeding mistakes to Bonds with the same proficiency as the one I display in my error-laden posts, Barry should have no problem reaching 70 and going beyond…
Capacitor
Yes, the fences are short at Pac Bell, but have you been keeping count of the distance of Bonds’ homers. He is not only hitting them consistently but with a good deal of juice. Didn’t he hit a 490-footer earlier this year?
Yeah, the RF fence is only 307 feet from home plate, but it’s 25 feet tall. There is a terrific photo of Pac Bell at http://www.ballparks.com/baseball/national/pacbel.htm taken from behind home plate from the upper-most level. It’s the second photo. (First photo is a beautiful aerial shot with the city in the background.)
You can clearly see how much higher the fence is in RF than in CF and LF. This doesn’t seem to matter to Bonds, though.
BTW: http://www.Ballparks.com is perhaps the very best website devoted to stadiums and arenas there is. It’s always up-to-date and features gorgeous color photos of all the parks.
Home run count: 38
Slugging percentage: .920! No one else in the NL has broken .800. No one in the AL has topped .700.
I’m gonna post to this thread till the season’s over, or till we know for sure that he won’t break 70.
Quasar is right–I saw a stat recently in the Bay Area media that said Barry’s average home run travels 410 feet. He’s also been hitting a lot to straightaway center field.
Another tidbit: since PacBell opened, 16 balls have been hit into McCovey Cove (the water beyond RF). Barry’s hit 12 of 'em (the others: 1 Giant (Felipe Crespo) + Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Todd Hundley).
But speaking as a lifelong Giants fan–one who watched Barry’s father and godfather roam the outfield at the 'Stick: I’m not particularly excited. Not that I’ve got anything against Barry; I just think it somehow cheapens a record to have it fall in 3 years. If McGwire hadn’t just set the record, I’d probably be pretty stoked.