He went into this season at 658 and is on pace for 45 or so in 2004. That will put him at the end of this season at 703. That means he’ll need 53 HR in 2005+ to become the all time HR record holder.
Can he do it?
Here’s some quotes from Bonds recently:
Thank you, Baseball Prospectus
So his three year pace (2002-2004) give him an average of 45 per season. I’m not taking the more common 2001-2003 three year averages because it contains the 73 HR outlier and that’s just crazy-mad wrong.
So if Bonds can play at this pace for two more years (and the rest of this one) we’re looking at:
2004: 703
2005: 748
2006: 793
So in April or May 2006 I’d expect him to break the record.
But…Bonds was born in 1964 and will turn 40 this year. Let’s assume he loses 10% of his power each year (including this one)…
So he DOESN’T make it. Though I’d be willing to bet if he’s still hitting 20+ HR at age 42 and is 10 from the record the Giants will bring him back at just about any amount of money.
I wouldn’t be incredibly suprised to see him in the AL in the future. He could DH to get his AB’s in without the physical strain of playing in the field everyday. I don’t know how long his contract with the Giants lasts, though.
I think he’ll get it as well (barring injury, of course). I don’t think his skills will drop off suddenly enough to casue him to miss it. As you mentioned he’s only about 2 seasons away from it.
If nothing else, it’s casting light on how friggin remarkable Aaron’s record is. I’ve always thought Hank didn’t get enough love during the whole “greatest living ballplayer” argument when Joe D died (and don’t get me started on that. IMHO Joe was the 3rd or 4th best living ballplayer when he was alive).
I think he probably won’t quit until he gets it - although he’ll be 40 this season and I’m not sure he’ll get it the year after next. He’s become more injury prone and sits out more games these days, not to mention the walks. And I suppose there’s the wildcard possibility of something unusual happening in the BALCO case… but probably he makes it.
I also believe that if he is going to keep playing much longer, it will have to be in the AL as a DH. Probably for the Angels…
I personally dislike the man, both for his attitude and that fact that he plays for the Second-Most-Evil Team in MLB. But I can’t see him giving up when he is this close.
I think he’ll make it. I think he’d have a better chance of making it if teams would stop being so afraid of pitching to him. I personally believe that you need to trust your pitcher to be able to get someone like Bonds out and only intentionally walk him when the tactical situation would really call for it, which has not been the case in most of the times I’ve seen Bonds intentionally walked. Also, I wish pitchers would be more aggressive and come in a bit off the corners when pitching to Bonds, since they wind up walking him a lot that way too.
There was never any such argument. DiMaggio insisted on being called that for him to make public appearances, and everyone went with it because it doesn’t cost you any money to say. I don’t think any serious baseball fan actually thought Joe DiMaggio was a greater player than Willie Mays.
As to Bonds, he could, assuming he doesn’t get hurt. But when you’re 40, that’s not always a safe assumption.
Sami41, Bonds is signed through 2006, so it is unlikely he will ever play in the AL. He has also pretty well established that he doesn’t want to leave San Francisco.
Yeah, say what you want about Bonds (and many people do) but he’s been remarkably focused with being on the team he feels loyalty towards.
His salary is $15,500,000 this year (I believe). You think he wouldn’t be worth more on the open market? But no hold outs or anything.
So I think the DH thing won’t happen. I figure he plays through 2006 and sees how close he is to 756 to decide whether 2007 is a good idea or not.
Actually, I find I really WANT him to do it. He’s been such a great hitter for such a long time that I really enjoy having him around and wish him the best at doing it.
I think he will hit 755 and stop, probably on the advice of his agent.
Bonds is something of an egomaniac. Why set a record that will only be broken sometime in the future?
Instead, he can guarantee true lasting fame by stopping one short and promptly retiring. Then, he concocts some hackneyed story about putting his family first and needing to focus on his wife and kids and “what’s really important”.
The story will be set upon by the media like a pack of starving wolves and probably turn into a major motion picture, which will be shown for decades on Lifetime.
First, he already has the kind of fame that will live on as long as there is MLB, so he doesn’t need to do anything so contrived.
However, he has stated that 714/715 is the number he wants. If he doesn’t have 755 or 756 at the end of 2006, maybe he will retire. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
I’d bet on Bonds reaching 756, based on the fact that if Bonds takes a pitch the umps call it a ball. All the close calls go Bonds’ way, which is a huge advantage to Bonds. Of course, the fact that Bonds hammers every hittable pitch will help him reach the record too.
Do you guys think Alou is handling Bonds properly, batting order wise? I mean, given that the opposition never pitches to him with men on base, should Alou switch Bonds’ position in the batting order to leadoff? I can’t see any downside to that, and I can see great upside, in that the Giants will start the first inning of every game with a man on base.
Actually, zamboni, I really like the idea of making him the leadoff. I think it would only help the team because more teams will pitch to him. (I mean, who starts a game with an intentional walk?) Who is the lead off hitter now? (We don’t get many SF games here.) Do you think this would cause an ego issue for the current lead off?
I would really, really like for Bonds to make it to 756. I think he will try as hard as he can to get there, but with the death of his father last year, I think he has lost some of his interest in the game. And I can’t imagine that it is particularly interesting for him to be walked all the time. I’d like to see pitchers take their chances against him, and let’s see if he can really get to 756. There is something great in the making here and I would love to see it played out. I would hope most bb fans would, too.
SABR research has pretty clearly demonstrated that lineup position has little effect on the overal run scoring ability of a team.
But the advantage that WOULD occur would be in the extra PA for Bonds. IIRC each slot up in the order means an extra 10-15 or so PA over the course of a season. So moving him up 3 slots would be an extra 30-45 PA for Bonds in the season. And 90 PA for Bonds is significant because he’s so much better than every other batter that you’d trade 45 Bonds PA for 45 PA of anyone else in the game. Heck, 45 BPA is probably worth 90 or 135 of some other players.
True, but as Bill James has pointed out, you should put your strongest hitter first; over the course of an entire season, the leadoff batter will get approximately 50 more at-bats than the fourth batter. This may not affect a team’s overall scoring ability, but it will definitely affect Bonds’s home-run hitting opportunities.
To answer the OP: I doubt Bonds will make it to 756, and moreover I sincerely hope he doesn’t. I grew up in Atlanta, walking by the big bronze Hank Aaron statue at the old Fulton County Stadium, and I’m just not ready for that chapter in the Twilight of the Gods.
[baseball-related hijack]
Speaking of strong hitters, I got to see Sammy Sosa play in the minors last night; he’s on a three-game rehab stint with the AA West Tennessee Diamond Jaxx. He was the DH; no homers, but one really good double off the back wall. I’ll have pictures in a few hours. He hit a foul that went about ten feet over my head, darn it.
Re: putting Bonds in the leadoff slot- don’t forget about the effect Bonds has on the treatment of the hitters in front of him. I’d worry that, with Bonds batting first, he might just get pitched to, and then the rest of the lineup would get chewed up because of the lack of a power presence looming. Seriously, would you throw a single fastball to that lineup after you got past Bonds? With Bonds third or fourth, at least the top of the order gets to see some pitches, because the last thing the other manager wants to see is Bonds coming up with bases occupied. If Bonds is leading off, you’re going to hear a lot of “and Perez has retired 8 in a row after that leadoff homer by Bonds.”
I know people like to say protection is a myth and all that, but I think the stat-heads can sometimes blind themselves with numbers. Think about it logically- if you’re facing the Giants, do you want to see Bonds leading off and subsequently batting after Neifi Perez and Kirk Rueter, or batting cleanup?
There have been some pretty good studies run that don’t show much correlation between ‘protection’ and productivity. And some managers (LaRussa, initially) began using that fact in the late 1980s. His reasoning was something like, “I have Canseco and McGwire. I can bat them back to back. That’s conventional. But then for two innings neither of them comes up. I prefer to have Canseco third and McGwire sixth (!!!). That means the opposing pitcher has to sweat at least two innings out of three.”
I don’t think that could possibly make any less sense. :dubious: It’s arguably the most famous record in sports - wouldn’t an egomaniac want it that much more?
I think he’s since recanted the claim that he doesn’t want to break Aaron’s record. And I don’t think Bonds will play in the AL. The Giants would never let him walk away. He’s a star, he’s their star, and they’ll want him on the team when he sets the record.
Yeah, that’s kind of like those old sportswriters who wrote that Ripken should get one short of Gehrig’s record, then walk out on the field, stop at the chalk, and turn around and sit out.
Silly man. Records are there to be broken. That’s the entire reason they’re kept.
But I can’t see him giving up when he is this close.