Yes, but correct me if I am wrong, the move to bring that vote is vulnerable to a filibuster thus requiring 67 votes.
The budget resolution deliberately omitted instructions to modify the public debt limits set forth in the very first section. So it would appear that door is closed.
Section 1001 of S.Con.Res.14 (117th Cong.)
The following budgetary levels are appropriate for each of fiscal years 2022 through 2031:
(1) […]
(2) […]
(3) […]
(4) […]
(5) PUBLIC DEBT.—Pursuant to section 301(a)(5) of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (2 U.S.C. 632(a)(5)), the appropriate levels of the public debt are as follows:
Fiscal year 2022: $30,789,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2023: $32,141,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2024: $33,526,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2025: $35,059,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2026: $36,570,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2027: $37,952,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2028: $39,733,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2029: $41,296,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2030: $43,188,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2031: $45,150,000,000,000.
(6) DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC.—The appropriate levels of debt held by the public are as follows:
Fiscal year 2022: $24,622,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2023: $25,826,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2024: $27,153,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2025: $28,678,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2026: $30,219,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2027: $31,776,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2028: $33,737,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2029: $35,521,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2030: $37,692,000,000,000.
Fiscal year 2031: $39,987,000,000,000.
The fact that public debt limits were not addressed in the bill means that reconciliation is still available for that topic. Reconciliation can be used for three things: debt limit, spending, and revenue. The topics can all be addressed in one bill, or broken apart in separate bills. There hasn’t been a debt limit bill submitted under Reconciliation yet, so that avenue is still available.
Senate rule changes are not subject to filibuster. They can be changed with 50+1 votes.
Debt limits were addressed. I cited it directly, in the spoiler above. Any reconciliation bill changing the debt limits to be out of accordance with those numbers is vulnerable to a point of order with the parliamentarian ruling, and I think you need 60 votes to overcome the parliamentarian.
There isn’t enough time to do a new budget resolution with instructions to change the debt limits in reconciliation. You need 24 hours notice, plus another 24 hours notice for the reconciliation. FY22 starts on October 1, right?
What is Kyrsten Sinema’s problem? Her fellow Arizona senator Mark Kelly isn’t holding up everyone else. I can very begrudgingly see why Joe Manchin acts the way he does because West Virginia is only becoming more of a red state but that’s not the case with Arizona which flipped blue.
The fiscal year only matters for passing the FY22 budget. The debt limit is separate and will not be breached until mid-October according to Secretary Yellen.
edit: changed “broached” to “breached.” Although at this rate Congress may not broach the debt limit until mid-October either.
Well, another factor is that trying a revised budget resolution means it has to go through the budget committee. The Senate Budget Committee is currently split 11D-11R. A motion to discharge the tie vote to the full Senate is vulnerable to the filibuster (ETA: I think).
So that totally rules out passing a revised budget resolution (with instructions to raise the debt limit via reconciliation) for FY2022, be it before 10/01/2021 or after.
Hmm. Well, you’re right that Republicans could bottle up a revised budget resolution in the Budget Committee. I’m not sure why they’d to do that, though. They want Democrats (and only Democrats) to pass an increase in the debt limit so they can run ads that say, “Senator Liberal voted to add $8 zillion to the national debt.” So they just need to have 10 of their Budget Committee members vote no and the eleventh have important family business to attend to that day.
Wouldn’t it be even better if Democrats controlled the Presidency and both chambers and the U.S. defaulted because they couldn’t get their act together?
Democrats seemed to have a clear pathway to raise the debt ceiling by including reconciliation instructions the first time around. I’m talking about this month of September 2021. For once it does not appear to be entirely the Republicans’ fault. Republicans don’t want to give them a second chance.
The debt limit has been routinely raised or suspended in the past with bipartisan support through regular legislation. Mitch McConnel created this crisis through his insistence that it must be done through budget reconciliation.
That bipartisan was only bipartisan because it included a faction of the Republican party that has since withered. McConnell insists it must be done through budget reconciliation because his members, at least for now, want him to do so. Whether they just like all the bad PR of Democratic infighting, or whether they are prepared to actually put party politics over a major economic catastrophe, I’m honestly not sure.
But, “McConnell created this crisis” seems to be as accurate as “Democrats created this crisis” - both are supported by a but-for analysis.
Another thing. McConnell isn’t the one with the standing threat to filibuster debt ceiling legislation. That person is Ted Cruz. McConnell just wants to avoid the appearance of infighting within the Republican party - that’s what he does best, he makes Republicans look like they’re all standing together. You think more than a handful of (R) Senators actually want the U.S. to default? Ha!
Contrast with Chuck Schumer’s leadership. He isn’t out there absorbing the media flak for Sinema and Manchin, he’s just kind of standing on the side and maybe doing things behind the scenes, but letting the media portray Democratic infighting in all its ugly detail.
I could say it’s a different philosophy of open versus smoke-filled-room diplomacy, but it isn’t. The detailed budget reconciliation bill, aka. Biden’s entire domestic policy, still hasn’t been released for public or even private scrutiny. You have less than 48 hours to go and the basic blueprint isn’t set in stone yet, let alone the details, which are extremely important.
Are we letting Medicare negotiate drug prices or not? How exactly will that work? Are we doing something on immigration? Is the education reform in here too? Are we doing something about climate? What are the details, the wording, etc?
Every single member of Congress is going to have one day to review 100s of pages of legislation, if not a 1000+ pages, before the deadline. This is assuming Democrats reach some sort of agreement among their power players before time runs out. There’s no time for nuance. Either you vote blindly for or you vote blindly against.
I’ll be honest, I’m not even sure if you and I are disagreeing. But just to clarify again, the budget reconciliation bill does not have to be passed by Friday. A continuing resolution to fund the government must be passed to avoid a government shutdown. They’re two separate things.
An amendment may be offered but according to current rules, 24 hours notice must be provided. And during those 24 hours an indefinite filibuster may be initiated. In such a case current rules set the threshold for a cloture motion at two-thirds of Senators present and voting (effectively 67 votes). If there is no filibuster, or three days after the filibuster is subject to cloture, a bare majority will change the rules.
As I wrote above a point of order can at any time be raised as to how to interpret current rules. And a bare majority may outright lie about what the rules say. But I remind you, Democrats do not presently have the necessary 50+1 votes for that.
So Max explain how the Senate was able to amend the rules so Supreme Court justices only need a majority to be confirmed under Republicans but that Democrats can not do the same type of behavior to change the rules about debt limit increases.