The Republicans had 50 members willing to vote in favor of such a measure (to outright lie about Senate rules), whereas right now Democrats do not have 50 members willing to vote in favor of a “nuclear option” affecting the filibuster.
~Max
Last I read the House’s continuing resolution was linked to raising the debt ceiling and thus dead-on-arrival in the Senate. But I mentioned the budget reconciliation bill as an example of Schumer’s leadership style, in contrast to McConnell’s minority leadership as Ted Cruz filibusters all debt ceiling legislation.
ETA: To clarify, this
refers to Nancy Pelosi’s simultaneous promises.
- To the moderate Democrats, to bring the infrastructure bill to a vote on Thursday (tomorrow)
- To the progressive Democrats, to move the reconciliation bill with the infrastructure bill (therefore tomorrow)
~Max
Update,
Democrats are not planning immediately to reconvene to discuss a “Plan C,” the Senate aide said.
~Max
I’m really confused what you’re arguing here. I think everyone else in this thread thinks that the blame as far as moral responsibility or intent for a default would fall on the Senate GOP for opposing the debt ceiling hike. Strategic mistakes by the Democrats in their efforts to avoid this don’t change that, unless the Democrats somehow are somehow actually screwing things up on purpose and trying to make it look like incompetence. What part of that do you disagree with?
Feels like it has to be some combination of lobbyists deciding she’s the leverage point they have on the Democrats’ agenda and her thinking that there’s no such thing as bad press and that anything she does to raise her public profile is positive.
In general, I think the argument that someone is doing something for the attention is a lazy, overly simplistic argument. But with Sinema, I agree that it seems to be the driving force behind many of her actions.
It’s probably not for attention; it’s probably to ensure that she has a pipeline of contributions coming in. Arizona is also still mostly Republican - not quite the deep red Republican it used to be, but it still leans right. She’s probably counting on taking the center position, figuring she can vote with Dems whenever Republicans are in the majority and voting less Republican when the Democrats are in power. People need to keep in mind that senators like Sinema have an eye beyond their careers; they have opportunities to serve on corporate boards, work as private consultants, and even corporate lobbyists, using their old connections. She fears getting blackballed if she sides with Bernie.
Re: filibuster, it’s pretty complicated to end it, though there are ways to make it weaker and less commonly used. The use of the “nuclear” option is probably the best bet, though again, that will depend on sens like Manchin and Sinema, who see the filibuster as their source of power. Brookings has a good write-up on it:
There’s a 0% chance that voting for the reconciliation bill would get her blackballed. Some of the stoogiest Dem senators aren’t even making a peep about it. Evidently she’s who lobbyists are fixing their sights on for whatever reason so there may be more of a carrot than a stick.
Sure, those are the current rules (I’m assuming you’re correct; didn’t check myself). But at any given time, a simple majority of Senators can decide “these are the new rules we’re following” and that’s it, those are the new rules. Because the Senate is the first, only, and final arbiter of its own rules.
Except for a few limitations set in the Constitution.
Article I, Section 5
Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members, and a Majority of each shall constitute a Quorum to do Business; but a smaller Number may adjourn from day to day, and may be authorized to compel the Attendance of absent Members, in such Manner, and under such Penalties as each House may provide.
Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behaviour, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a Member.
Each House shall keep a Journal of its Proceedings, and from time to time publish the same, excepting such Parts as may in their Judgment require Secrecy; and the Yeas and Nays of the Members of either House on any question shall, at the Desire of one fifth of those Present, be entered on the Journal.
Neither House, during the Session of Congress, shall, without the Consent of the other, adjourn for more than three days, nor to any other Place than that in which the two Houses shall be sitting.
I would say moral responsibility is split, not evenly though. Because the Democrats did make a ‘strategic mistake’, and I’m assuming it’s because someone in their party asked to take the debt ceiling instructions out of the resolution. That someone (or those someones) deserves part of the blame, IMO.
~Max
But there are existing rules about when and how Senators can change Senate rules, and a sergeant-at-arms to enforce them. You would at the very least need the support of the presiding officer to lie about the current rules - individual Senators, even a majority - do not have the right to amend rules at any given time.
~Max
Senate rules cannot override the Constitution.
The constitution does not grant Senators any individual right in this matter, nor any particular group of Senators.
~Max
No rights are under discussion here. The Senate has the power to change its rules, and its rules cannot restrict that power.
It is my opinion that so long as the Senate has the opportunity to set the rules at least once per session with a majority vote, that provision of the Constitution is satisfied.
And I once tried (and failed) to debate this subject, if you are interested in continuing the discussion I ask you to respond here:
~Max
The end game? WAG because I’m not in some K-Street bar. Absent of that, much is, the progressives stuff both bills initially while back channeling messages that they might be willing to accept a bigger bipartisan stimulus that includes some of the stuff they want. So instead of the $1 tril hard stimulus; they negotiate another half bil with some of the social stuff they want. That’s the win-win. Manchema can claim they stopped the ‘radical’ Dems from running wild. Centrist Dems and Repubs get a bill that’s mostly hard stimulus with a few progressive tack ons. The progressives, though disappointed, walk away with something and not totally empty-handed.
ABC’s headline,
Biden signs last-minute deal to avert government shutdown
Referering to H.R.5305 (117th Cong.)
H.R. 5305, the “Extending Government Funding and Delivering Emergency Assistance Act” which includes a short-term continuing resolution that provides fiscal year 2022 appropriations to Federal agencies through December 3, 2021, for continuing projects and activities of the Federal Government; includes supplemental appropriations for disaster relief; includes supplemental appropriations for Afghanistan evacuees; and extends several expiring authorizations.
Text here
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5305/text
~Max
That pushes off a government shutdown until at least December, but the debt limit still needs to be raised (by October 18, according to Yellen). If they’re gonna do it through reconciliation, that’s an incredibly tight timeline.
I gotta say, I think Biden is taking the wrong approach here. He seems to be focused on calming things down, assuring people that everything’s gonna be OK and working quietly to woo Republicans. But the fact of the matter is that nothing gets done in DC except in the midst of a crisis. The way previous debt limit crises got resolved was when markets tanked and Republicans got spooked. Biden should be playing up the economic calamity that would ensue from a debt limit breach and pinning it on Republicans. That’s the only way they’ll feel any pressure to climb down from their position.
We already earmarked an eighth of the $400bn/yr ‘Afghanistan peace dividend’. Or should I say, we earmarked 112.5% of it since funding was never reduced. It’s going to (you guessed it) defense spending, in an effort to placate the GOP. Biden’s defense budget called for $716 billion, the Congressional budget is set to give him $765 billion. Nothing brings the two parties together better than spending more money.
(Old article. The budget resolution has since been approved and sets defense at $765 bn, although we’ll have to wait and see for the final defense appropriations bill)
~Max
It’s unlikely, but I’d love to see Biden do the platinum coin thing as an end run around the debt limit. If the Republicans won’t play ball, the why not? It’d be better than defaulting, strange as it is.