Last night’s debate was not a blowout. On points, I’d say it was a draw. So any poll movement as a result of it will be more about perception and reassurance.
I think it breaks down like this:
If you were already an Obama supporter, you still are.
If you were already a McCain supporter, you still are.
If you were leaning towards Obama, but were unsure of his seriousness, you probably moved closer to voting for Obama.
If you were leaning towards McCain, but didn’t want another boob for a President, you probably moved closer to McCain.
If you were an initial supporter of the war, but became disillusioned with the way it was run, you may have moved a little closer to McCain.
If you were initially opposed to the war, you probably moved a little closer to Obama.
I guess the point is that each candidate had some strengths and weaknesses in the debate, and attracted or repelled voters accordingly. How that translates into overall movement depends on how many people fit into each of those categories.
Overall, I’d say Obama wins, simply because he has the job of reassuring voters that he’s up to the task of being President. I think he got that across last night, so even if the debating points were even, he has to come out the winner.