Obviously the Europeans and South Americans have dominated the World Cup since its inception, and indeed, soccer has traditionally been bigger and better on those continents than it has elsewhere. But the rest of the world has had a few decades to catch up, and here we are at the 2026 Cup with at least one African nation (Morocco) being considered a legitimate dark horse. The USA is considered a strong second-tier team and, hell, may surprise everyone (probably not). Japan and South Korea are both legit teams that should not be dismissed, ditto Australia.
So when the Jules Rimet Trophy goes to a team that is not from Europe or South America, where will it go? As of now it looks like Morocco has the best shot, if not this year than in 2030. The USA might have its shit together by then, too, but I think a world championship for us is probably two or three Cups away, and that’s being generous. Mexico is always a possibility for a North American winner. Australia may yet emerge from being a second-tier squad at some point.
So where do you see the Trophy going the first time it goes to neither Europe nor South America?
Africa, I think. 10 African nations out of 48 overall in the World Cup pot is always a decent-sized chance by probability. They have the strongest footballing culture of all the remaining not-yet-won confederations - more so than Asia or North America, whose passion for the sport is somewhat more muted and have other sports they prioritize focus on.
Edit: I forgot that Mexico was considered part of North America, duh - (facepalm.) I think they have a strong chance. But then after them, it’s the continent of Africa.
The Jules Rimet Trophy was retired in 1970, the current World Cups is different.
That said, my bet is Japan, so Asia, they’ve shown they can upset the giants (beating Spain AND Germany in the last World Cup) they just need to mature a bit (which they seem to be doing) and, critically, learn to win penalty shoot-outs.
Legitimate question: Do you belive, as a Fox announcer speculated, that the Japanese (and by extension, Asian in general) men are at a disadvantage by being historically shorter than their Western counterparts (and have to adjust their play because of it)? The difference is slight (5cm on average) but in this game centimeters count.
Nope, there’s another country who’s historically shorter than Europeans and they won the last World Cup.
(Though we suffered like the damned in hell every time the damn Dutch tried a cross to our penalty box, friggin’ freaks of nature)
Whatever disadvantage there may be in height in dealing with a jump-ball header might be compensated for by the advantages of shortness (better center of gravity, etc.)
Japan are 34 years into a 100 year plan to win the World Cup. I think they are as likely as anyone.
But looking at how ridiculously stacked teams like Brazil, France, Spain and Argentina are, it’s hard to imagine how anyone can close the gap in the near term.
Perhaps if football/soccer really takes off in the US and starts attracting the best athletes they can do it.
But then you look at England for instance. The academies of the English teams have really got their acts together in the last decade and are producing some outrageous talents. And that is merely copying what France and Spain have been doing for the last 20 years. I’d argue that far from being in danger of being caught, the big European nations are pulling away from the pack. Many of the other countries best players are coming through European academies. There are 53 players at this World Cup who were born in Paris!
I can imagine country in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia or the UAE, assembling a team by granting citizenship to a bunch of talented players and winning the Cup with them.
First many, if not most, players would refuse to play for another country.
Second such a Frankenstein team would have a hard time beating a properly motivated national team where the players are actually playing for their own country.
And third and probably the most important reason: Winning a world cup is very very very difficult, any rational country would realize that the enormous expense necessary to convince those players to play for them will probably not be rewarded with success.
Not all countries are rational. Some nations, including the very ones under discussion, have already shown a propensity to spend breathtaking amounts of money to attain nothing more than prestige.
That is true, but the point is that success would not be a guaranteed result for the expense. Football is unpredictable, what in paper looks like the better team almost never wins the World Cup.
For better or for worse, the USA seems to do everything on the up & up, and according to the strict letter of FIFA’s rules, when it comes to who can play on the national team. Everyone on the team is a US citizen according to the Constitution; no naturalization required. Of the handful who weren’t born here, they were born overseas to American dads, so they’re citizens by parentage. And Balogun was born here to English parents who were in town for one reason or another, and is a citizen by birthright. I don’t see the USA finessing its citizenship rules to build up more talent on its national team.
A great many players do play for a different country. See the statistic earlier in this thread that 53 players in the tournament this year were born in Paris.
And a very high salary for an entire team of pro athletes is chump change, compared to what some countries have historically done for the sake of prestige.
I had been thinking recently about how Japan (up until recently) was arguably the No. 1 team in international baseball, but one reason for that was that there aren’t that many nations who play or care about baseball, so it was a small pond. With the immensely diverse field of soccer worldwide, I think Japan may have hit a ceiling that it will only be able to break through occasionally. It’s just too full of parity. Even Brazil, the nation that ought to arguably dominate soccer more than any other on Earth, hasn’t been back to the World Cup final in 24 years.