Just for fun, let’s say Cruz gets 40% of the vote in Texas, Trump and Rubio get 25% each, and the other two split the rest. Of the 44 statewide delegates, Cruz would get 40/90 of them, and Trump and Rubio would get 25/90 of them each. That would get Cruz 20 of the 44 statewide delegates, and Trump and Rubio 12 each.
And say 40% statewide is good enough for Cruz to win 32 districts and finish second in 4, with the leftover firsts and seconds split evenly between Trump and Rubio, and Cruz clears 50% in 8 districts. Cruz gets 24 delegates in the 8 CDs he wins outright, 48 in the others where he finishes first, and 4 in the 4 where he finishes second, for 76 delegates from CDs. Trump and Rubio each finish first in 2 districts and second in 12 districts each where Cruz didn’t get 50%. They’d get 16 delegates each. So the total take would be 96 delegates for Cruz, and 28 for each of the other two.
Obviously things could go a little bit either way here: the percentages could be closer statewide and Trump and Rubio could win more districts, while Cruz didn’t get 50% anywhere, or Cruz might be the winner in every CD and clear 50% in more places.
But however it gets sliced, Cruz will get enough of a delegate haul in Texas that he’ll clearly be in second in the delegate hunt when things are tallied up Wednesday morning. Even if Rubio does better than the polls suggest, he’s stuck with Cruz still in the race because Cruz will still be ahead of him in delegates.
(Cruz must be thinking: how come Rubio and Kasich get winner-take-all home states, and I don’t?)