Yes, this will have to be the ultimate fix for GOP obstructionism. So long as Congress exists with the rules they have, a small group of crazy Republicans will be able to hold the entire government hostage. The Dems can’t stop this, and the rest of the GOP won’t stop it.
So the only real solution will be for the electorate to finally come to their senses, and vote out as many Republicans as possible.
Until then, making bad deals for scraps is the best anyone can hope for, and the crazies will screech to high heaven even about the scraps.
Oh they never will, but there are marginal voters that the Dems can pick up. The republicans screwed enough stuff up to give the Dems a trifecta in 2020.
(Obvious caveat that there are a lot of different circumstances now than there were in 2020)
Then we’re just going to have to disagree. Because I see limited evidence that voters in strong Red districts will vote for more moderate primary challengers (if any bother) or worse yet, a Democrat. And some of the districts are so gerrymandered, or so unbalanced in population, that ever a huge groundswell of public support for the Democrats means nothing. As you say, swing districts are few and getting rarer all the time - and the MAGA types that are most independent, the most nihilistic, are absolutely entrenched in some of the least moveable areas. So you CAN’T get rid of them.
I’m not saying that this is a situation that I approve of, or want to continue, but that does seem to be how things have been for the Trump Era.
ETA - the only hope I see (and I’m not holding my breath) is that if the margins remain thin in the House (or if a benevolent deity whose presence has until now been sadly lacking grants a (D) majority) is that when they next elect a speaker after elections that the one vote to initiate a motion to vacate rule gets trashed again. It’s a sword that the true intransigent jerks are using as a sword over the speaker’s head. Get rid of it, or raise it to some semi-rational number, and maybe we can get past the current stage. Not going to fix the MAGA problem, but might make it harder to hold the government hostage. Might.
I agree. If the frothing red-state voters see federal governance genuinely starting to break down, they won’t rethink their politics, they’ll believe their politics are working as intended.
In the first legislative day back from the holidays, the Freedom Caucus – of course – brought the House grinding to a halt by voting against beginning debate on three bills unrelated to the budget.
My game theory view of this is that it might be in the Dem’s best interest to save Johnson but it’s probably not in Johnson’s best interest. If Johnson makes a deal to keep the government open provided enough Dem’s vote to rescue him from the freedom caucus, then all that has happened is that he has transferred the leash from the hands of the freedom caucus to the hands of the Democrats. The fact that he relied on Dem. support to remain in office, is going to tar him forever as a god damned RINO, and number one hit on their hate list. He will never again be able to get the support of the freedom caucus. If he steps out of line all that needs to happen is for AOC to tap Matt Gaetz on the shoulder and let him know that Johnson’s lost the Dem’s protective umbrella and Gaetz will set up another vote to oust him.
Something to bear in mind is that this isn’t the last budget train wreck we’re likely to have during this session of Congress. Even if Johnson is able to get this agreement through the House, it only funds the government through the rest of the current fiscal year – i.e. September 31. And so, we’re likely to have another budget blow up with the elections just weeks away. Typically, Congress has passed a CR to punt election year budget decisions into a lame duck session after the election, because nobody’s wanted to face the voters in the midst of a government shutdown. The Freedom Caucus may not share that concern.
I don’t disagree. And that’s what’s puzzled me in the recent Republican runs on the Speakership. Outside of those so hungry for it they were drooling (McCarthy) or frothingly rabid (Jordan) what sane (and I mean sane by current Republican standards which isn’t saying much) would want it? It’s a poisoned chalice at best right now, with the slim majority, the rules to vacate, and anyone with half a hair of responsibility would be immediately castrated by their own rabid wing.
If Johnson is run out (which is very possible) I can see Jordan maybe making a comeback, but that’ll just grind the whole government to a halt again other than more targeted investigations long on insinuations and empty of verifiable facts. Certainly we’ll be in for one or more extended partial shut downs (aside to @DeadTreasSecretaries, selling out the government to Jordan being a bridge too far for most Democrats in my opinion) - which would satisfy the Chaos Caucus, but not any Republican in a vaguely contested area.
Really, if Johnson goes down, I’d take bets on it taking at -least- a week, likely longer, to wear out objections to any candidate, with the FC crazies relishing their power as the margins have grown only slimmer.
It seems that, despite being significantly to McCarthy’s right in terms of policy preferences, Johnson’s actions, in a similar situation, may be the same. Maybe I should have posted this in a thread on the non-existence of free will.
With the first tranche of agencies set to shut down on Friday, House and Senate leaders look ready to move a continuing resolution that will keep the “laddered” approach with some agencies being extended through March 1 and others through March 8. Just like the original “laddered” CR, it’s a dumb approach but dumb within acceptable parameters.
Will the FC let Johnson do it without making a motion to vacate?
And the House passes a continuing resolution to fund the government through early March, with the Freedom Caucus proving once again how absolutely impotent they are to enact any of their priorities.