What was her favorability in February, before the first of the many negative news stories?
CNN has her going from 57-41 in March to 46-50 today. Quinnipiac has her going from 48-45 to 45-47. Gallup her her going from 50-39 to 50-46.
Basiclaly, she wasn’t underwater before, now she is, with no sign that her numbers have bottomed.
I gave you a link. Look it up.
I agree that her favorability numbers are on a down swing. I do not agree that they are falling fast enough to be called a “free fall”. You have a lower free fall standards than I do.
I’m not in the mood to do the math right now, but I wonder if you have the same standards for Republicans as you do for Democrats.
Is Jeb in a free fall? Scott Walker? The recent trend is bad for both, but is it bad enough to called a free fall.
It is the same sort of foolishness as your take on NYC murder rates, adahar … looking at one little part of a line that shows what you want to see and extrapolating the blip. Last quarter of 2011 Obama’s approval averaged only 41%. Polls had voters more likely to vote for “a Republican candidate” than for him again. Gosh, now that was free fall. Those voters were going to vote GOP or stay home fer sure.
Looking at your link, no there is no evidence that she is any sort of significant decline, let alone free-fall. Favorability ratings across multiple polling houses are all in mid to upper 40s and more stable than any politician who has gone from being above the fray and into the mudpit would be expected to be.
Not the first of many, one of a long line of many negative news stories, but yes now viewed through the lens of a candidate for president. In that context it would indeed be absurd to think that she’ll stay consistently at or over 50% favorable the whole cycle. News cycles will impact numbers short term, statistical noise will crowed over and micro-analyzed.
Gallup though amazingly has her staying at 50% favorable, Quinnipiac has her within MOE consistently tied favorable to unfavorable poll to poll, and one house has a change that falls outside of MOE. (And that 57% favorability was insane; a reflection of not being in the fray.) You look at that and conclude “underwater” and “freefall”? Clean your glasses my friend.
I feel like a broken record but the level of variance in a poll at this point that would be of any meaning at all is huge. J. Bush’s progressively increasing, to over 50%, unfavorability while his favorability remains steady in the low 30s also means little, even for the first primary. We haven’t even reached the stage of trash talk before the game!
Well, if you are in the Republican thread, you know my opinion of Jeb’s chances. At least Clinton is polling at 60% within her own party. Jeb is at 10% despite similar name recognition. He has little chance.
With Clinton, it all depends on who her opponent is. If it’s bad, people will hold their nose and vote for her. If he’s decent, then she’ll lose.
OK, given that the Earth free-fall in a vacuum (an apt enough description for our political intelligence, with the presumed natural abhorrence but I digress…) is 32 feet per second squared…
And at 32 second squared at it takes a month to drop six tenths of a percentage point, what is the approximate distance of a percentage point measured in parsecs? I did the math, I did the monster math, and I get that she dropped from somewhere in the Oort Clouds. Way the Hell and gone out there. Far out.
Got the proof right here. Oh, no , the cats eaten it. Maybe. Not certain.
That’s one, and it wasn’t presidential (which are entirely different beasts to predict). You presidential track record is… well, you know.
Oh good, I was worried for a minute. She’ll be fine, then.
Entirely different? I doubt either Wang or Silver would agree with that. Besides, my prediction was based on a really terrible idea: skewed polls. The idea that Clinton can’t win with a 50%+ disapproval rating is not nearly as controversial.
Based on how well they did in '08 and '12, and how much worse they did in '10 and '14 (IIRC Silver was very poor in '10 and closer in '14, but still not nearly as on the nose as he was in '08 and '12), I think they’d agree.
There were multiple individual polls (though not the polling average) that had Obama at 50%+ disapproval close to the '12 election. You’re just jumping at one bad poll for Hillary.
I don’t think Clinton is capable of increasing her support, or motivating supporters, the way Obama was. She’s a known quantity who isn’t going to impress anyone that isn’t already impressed with her.
We’ll see. I think her opponent may impress the Democrats to vote for her in similar numbers to the last two elections.
Possibly. But I think it’s going to be Rubio or Kasich, who meet the necessary threshold to be considered an alternative by most voters.
I’m not sure if they will if they say the kinds of things one has to say to win the Republican nomination.
I’d be more worried about what happens when Clinton finally has to start answering media questions.
Why are you worried? Isn’t that what you want?
Or are you afraid how badly the GOP crowd will come off against her?
I’m not worried at all. The GOP candidates aren’t afraid to talk to the media.
And that’s what you should be afraid of. 
Ignoring the cites I made already about the jobs that will be gained by talking care of the issue is your problem not mine. It really only makes your points look as a cherry pickings.
That would be scary, assuming that a candidate could avoid talking to the media for 18 months without the media viciously turning on them and the public labelling the candidate a dishonest coward.
Then you’ve got Bill, who has talked to the media a little and is clearly no longer the political talent he was. “Gotta pay our bills!” He’s leaving right where he left off in 2008.
18 months? Oh that is right, I forgot that statements of adaher have the capability of changing the past as the universe does not like him.
One month ago: