Wang wasn’t great in 2014, but he exclusively uses poll data in his model. However, it looks like this may have been a case of garbage in garbage out, or as Nate Silver put it, “Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale”.
You have to extrapolate because the likely voter models don’t kick in for all posters until the fall before the election. So early polls are actually skewed against Republicans since they are registered voter polls and not likely voter polls.
How do the ones right before Election Day get skewed against Republicans?
They don’t. Well, they did in 2014, actually, according to Silver.
Still struggling with the concept, I see. Well, keep on trying.
What he doesn’t take into account are that there are a lot of candidates in the race and the one most likely to win will be whoever can make a good impression. I’m sure that most of the candidates will finish their campaigns underwater. The one that wins will probably have a quite decent approval rating. Probably higher than Clinton’s by a good margin.
Back this up with data and then we’ll talk.
And that person will also have a name and a face, right?
When you use words like “probably” it almost sounds like you are making a prediction. Care to firm it up a little bit? How probable is probably? How good is good?
If it’s Rubio, I predict he’ll own a 60% rating around the time of the convention. This isn’t a crazy prediction. John McCain got over that and stayed there or near there until the financial crisis and his rather odd reaction to it killed his candidacy dead:
http://www.pollingreport.com/l.htm#McCain
Kasich can probably get to about 55%, and Paul probably too. Some of the other guys can probably hit 50-52%. Some of them never will, namely Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, or Rick Santorum.
IOW, until an actual problem came along and he couldn’t bluster his way past it. Actual decision-making proved to be a weakness of his.
Now, how is Rubio going to be able to create quite as compelling a life story and heroic image as McCain, a life story that accounted for pretty much all of his approval rating that wasn’t accounted for by party affiliation? What accomplishments and guiding experiences do you think he’ll be able to point to? Hell, what policy positions other than pandering on immigration (while still telling us all how his parents escaped the cruel Batista regime 
) are going to get him anywhere close to Clinton?
What does Rubio’s electoral map look like, in this universe? (Hint: A lot like Romney’s).
McCain was in a different circumstance (and most of the polls in that cite do not show what you say btw). He was well known and had been well thought of before the season began.
I expected O’Malley to get a lot more traction than he has, from the “anyone but Clinton” camp. Given where he’s standing right now, though, that camp is apparently very small. Yeah, I think at this point Clinton is the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination.
It isn’t going to be Rubio, it’s going to be Bush. It’s over. The money has spoken.
Rubio has a chance at 50, but 60 is a fantasy. McCain was already near 50 at this point in 2007 and had been at 50 previously. Obama went from 49 in June 2007 to 55 in June 2008. Many of those who don’t know him are likely to learn about him via Jeb’s attack ads, and he would need undecideds to break his way at 3.75 to 1 to get to 60.
Kasich is a complete non-factor and there’s no reason to believe that he will become one. He’s not that well known but already 30% of republicans say they will not support him according to question 16 of this poll. It will be extremely hard to get to 55 without 30% of republicans. Also, it will be difficult to become well known if he doesn’t actually run for president, or even if does he might get left out of the debates based on current polling.
Rand Paul is trending negatively in favorability and doesn’t have the support of 45% of republicans according to the same poll linked earlier. He won’t sniff 50 this cycle.
O’Malley is even underperforming my extremely low expectations so far, and I thought a lot more of those people picking Biden were just using him as a placeholder until there was another candidate to vote for. Turns out the just liked Joe Biden which I guess I can understand. He’s super likeable.
You don’t want to disappoint adaher, do you? He still hasn’t gotten over his disappointment in Jindal and Christie, but at least he doesn’t hope we’re going to let him forget it. And Kasich is his last, best hope.
Anyway, wouldn’t it be a hoot if the party that has devoted itself to reflexively opposing Obamacare were to nominate first its spiritual father and creator, and then its only major-state governor to accept and implement it fully, successively?
It’s virtually impossible for him to get nominated if he doesn’t run, that’s true.
Yep, definitely going to lose in NH:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Sanders is now within 8. In Iowa, he’s cut her lead by 16 points.
The 8 looks like an outlier, but in any case it’s really way too early to be making such predictions. Among Democrats, Hillary will have a floor and Bernie will have a ceiling, and I think it’s very likely that Hillary’s floor (in NH or anywhere) is significantly higher than Bernie’s ceiling.
But we’ll see.
Good heavens, she is not going to lose either state nor is she going to lose the nomination. It is pleasant that alternatives to Hillary are there. Unlike the Republican clown car, Democrats have the limousine of distinguished statesmen.