New Hampshire … puts Trump next in line to Bush by 3 (definitely a Trump win there!) and now Sanders of Vermont is “only” behind 8!
It says something … but not that Trump and Sanders will each win, even in NH.
Oops. Newest NH poll now puts Clinton only up by 32 (56 to 24) … dang that free fall keeps going! Definitely going to lose NH!
Compare like to like. Bad poll analyzer! Bad! Bad!
The last Bloomberg poll had her up 62-18. In the RCP average she’s up by 15. Which would be great if it was the day before the primary. Not so great with six more months for voters to find out about alternatives.
It probably won’t matter, because NH voters pay attention. She’ll win the big states just like she did against Obama, because Democrats there just vote for who they’ve heard of, if they vote at all.
More adaher predictions! Yay!
Do you disagree that Clinton will win the big states?
But okay, I’ll play. Adaher predictions based on what we know now:
- Clinton will lose NH
- Clinton will win the biggest states
- When Clinton loses NH, a bigger name candidate than Sanders will jump into the race.
I think 2 is likely. I don’t think 1 (or 3) is likely. Though at this point I won’t make a prediction, because that would be silly. But we’ll see.
I don’t think it’s obvious that that has happened yet, but it’s certainly possible.
I like the line that Adelson brings candidates to Vegas to kneel and kiss his ring for the purpose of “speaking power to truth”. 
Yup. NH voters pay attention … that is why Trump came in a close second after Bush and above Paul and Rubio and why they also have Fiorina, Christie, and Carson all well above Kasich and Graham. It’s all the attention they pay! 
Agreed once again however that all polling data this far out is to be interpreted with several grains of salt … and the coarse Kosher kind at that. Not based on polling data at all, just on fundamentals, there is a non-zero chance that Sanders could pull a win in New Hampshire. If he cannot win there then he cannot win anywhere - it is his backyard, NH Democrats veer heavily to the progressive side, and he can cover the state on a low budget. But even there he is very very likely to lose.
I hope I am wrong as I’d love to see some actual attention paid to the Democratic nomination process and hear some actual debates.
And there is no one else who would enter the process after a hypothetical Clinton NH loss.
FWIW based on history and those fundamentals, not polling, I will predict that Sanders will end up with 35 to 45% of the vote in the NH Democratic primary with odds greater on the 35 to 40% range. He is already very well known there and the large NH progressive wing in NH will rally around him, along with those who just like voting for the underdog and want to vote for avoiding a no contest primary process. He will lose the state but it will be the state he comes closest to winning.
Anyone who’s not in the race by New Hampshire is not in the race. You simply can’t start a campaign after the primaries are already starting. Now, what could happen is that someone already in the race gets a big jump after one of the early primaries, but so far, that’s Clinton, O’Malley, and Sanders. And the person best-poised to benefit from a Sanders win would be Sanders himself.
What bigger name is around to jump in?
Another prediction I will go out on a limb and make … Obama’s favorability will fairly steadily rise as election time approaches. This last week was a very good time to be Obama and Obama embracing the victories (including the one over his own party) as he enters his last lap is actually letting himself be Obama. The Obama people loved in the first place.
In May (last data I can find) his favorability had been surging from its low last Fall - from 42 to 53%. Note, “favorability” and “job approval” are different numbers; the latter was 7 points less in May, for example. Obama will be in the upper 50s to maybe over 60% favorability by election eve and to the degree that Hillary’s favorability is impacted by his the impact will be solidly positive by then. She will embrace his support and the perception that while she clearly differs with him on many things and would have made some decisions differently, a vote for her is a vote to cement his legacy as well.
I predict that he’ll be at about 45%(pretty much where it is now), which simply won’t cut it for a candidate trying to succeed him.
Actually no, his “job approval” is “pretty much” near 45% (47% latest Gallup) and as already explained “favorability” is a different number that last checked was running 7% higher (and was 53% at that time).
But duly noted that you think he will stay flat and that such will drag Clinton down. Our predictions made we will have to see what the future unfolds!
FYI, Obama favorability.
Well, I for one am waiting to see the NH results before I put my name into the hat. I don’t expect to win the nomination but I feel I have a good shot at the VP slot – doesn’t hurt that I’m [del]virtually unknown[/del] widely beloved in my home swing state (OH). I’m a touch too young but I think Hilary and I can make this work.
Like I said, though, let’s see how NH goes.
Speaking as an Ohioan… Who the Hell are you, again?
He’s LeBron James.
LeBron is only 30, so no Clinton/James '16 this time around. :(
Big enthusiasm gap for 2016. Looking more and more like the Obama coalition only shows up for Obama.
Democratic voters think the system is broken. Democratic voters are a pretty faithless bunch, aren’t they? When Republicans elect their guys and their guys suck, they just assume those guys suck and vote for Democrats(2006, 2008). When Democrats elect their guys and their guys suck, they assume the system must be at fault and pout and stay home.