Specifically, what happens when somebody overdraws one of these cards?
It just gets burned. That’s it.
I believe it’s just discarded without triggering the effect.
I played one of those Rogue decks last night in Ranked play… first time I’d seen one. I was playing my Warlock mid-range deck. She wasn’t doing anything the first five turns except dagger and one sap. Then when I had a big board out, Vanish, and then next turn Coldlight Oracle, Gang Up, and Shadowstep… Thankfully, my deck doesn’t have much card draw in it and has enough cheap minions that I could keep my hand relatively empty so not much was overdrawn.
Once the two Vanishes were gone, and she’d dealt with a monster Void Terror created via power overwhelming, I still had about six cards in my deck (a couple of which would have been ambushes) and my hand had enough threats that finishing her off wasn’t too hard. Was one of the more interesting games I’ve played however - always fun encountering a new deck archetype in the wild and reacting to it.
I rarely pick shaman for arena usually but I thought I’d give it a shot with the new cards. Was pleasantly surprised with a 12-2. I think it partially had to do with the extra TGT cards reducing the chances for mages to draw AOE against me, since I ran into 6 mages but was miraculously never actually flamestriked.
Ok I need a break. I made a mill deck with no coldlights, and I lost to someone with Yetis and Goldshire Footman in their deck.
That loss was AFTER I realised I didn’t have coldlights and put them back in.
I suck at Arena. Where before I had occasionally 7 wins, now I have difficulty getting even 2. Upon creating my decks I’m always certain that this time I made the right choices. These cards will get me at least 5 wins, but each time the opponent somehow has better cards or better synergies. It’s frustrating.
Statistically speaking, if you assume the chance of winning a match is 50%, then that means 50% of all your runs will be either 0, 1, or 2 wins. This chart illustrates it nicely. I have to admit I’m really skeptical of the guy that claims he “averages” 6 wins and does arena often, because the chances of getting at least 6 wins on any given run is only 9%. The chance of a 12 win run is only 0.48%.
Now obviously one can make the argument that their play style and discernment in picking cards is better than average, and while RNG can wildly affect any given game or arena run, in the long run RNG affects all of us the same. So removing the element of RNG and looking at skill alone, that guy would pretty much have to be the most skilled player in the world to achieve that win rate on a consistent basis over a period of many runs.
In other words, don’t feel too bad. Try the ArenaValue tool when making your picks: they’ve updated it to include TGT cards now as well.
Except that there’s zero reason to assume your odds of winning each match are 50%.
Your chart shows the percent of runs that reach that level, but also says this: “Note that these statistics do not represent the player’s actual chances of reaching any number of wins. Success in Arena is substantially determined by deck construction and skill in playing each match.”
Regular matchmaking tries to get you to that point with MMR, but Arena matchmaking doesn’t work like that; it just tries to find somebody with a record similar to yours.
I suck at Arena and usually squeak out three or four wins, but I have a buddy who always makes it to rank 5+ on the ladder, and every arena run I see him play ends at 6+. He’s just really fucking good at Hearthstone, and the majority of people playing Arena are more like me and less like him. It doesn’t get distilled to his skill level until he’s broken through that 4-5+ win line.
The reason is that is the null hypothesis. If we don’t account for “skill” or perceived skill, then the odds would be 50%. So then we can assume any deviation from those odds in the long term can in fact be attributed to skill. Massive deviations do lead one to skepticism though. The chart isn’t showing actual data by the way, it’s showing a hypothetical model assuming the null hypothesis of a 50% win rate on any particular match.
Statistics aside, does that ArenaValue tool judge each card in a vacuum, or does it know to change weights based on what’s already in the deck?
I´ve tried ArenaValue before, and it didn´t greatly affect my win rate. It judges each card value on its own, regardless of what else is in your deck, and doesn´t take mana curve or synergies into account.
In Hearthstone it’s not a race to fatigue, it’s a race past the point of fatigue. You still need to do 30 points of damage even if fatigue damage contributes to part of that, so hitting them with a 4/4 means it doesn’t take as long for fatigue to finish them off. You can also use it to kill off their own 4/4, so that they can’t kill you before fatigue finishes them off.
Even if not for that, a board full of 4/4s is at least an alternative win condition - beating your opponent to death - that would be best activated by chewing through your opponent’s deck too quickly for them to muster the mana to counter it.
Incorrect - it does look at the cards you have chosen and adjust accordingly, and it also tracks all synergies (there is a tab for it) and also includes that in the value.
HearthArena just posted the change in win rates for classes after TGT, which confirmed my suspicions about mage. Blizzard bumped up the appearance of TGT cards in draft so flamestrike is even less likely to be drawn than I thought.
I don’t think that it is quite as hard as you are making it out to be to get to the level of averaging 6 wins or more in Arena. I don’t consider myself anything special in Hearthstone, I haven’t even hit legendary. However, I do consistently average over 6 wins per run. It didn’t happen overnight, I have over 2000 arena wins. Yes, variance affects everyone, but skill and experience goes a long way.
Class Average wins BEFORE TGT (1 till 23 August)
Mage 4.9734
Paladin 4.9588
Rogue 4.9535
Warlock 4.6077
Shaman 4.5691
Priest 4.4612
Hunter 4.2972
Druid 4.2721
Warrior 4.0760
Class Average wins TGT (25 August - 2 September)
Paladin 5.2959
Rogue 5.2648
Mage 4.8385
Druid 4.6741
Shaman 4.5402
Warlock 4.2651
Hunter 4.1789
Priest 3.9554
Warrior 3.5482
Does Frothing Berserker seem pretty overpowered to anyone else? I don’t even mean just in patron decks, although obviously he’s super ridiculous there. You put him behind a taunt (of which the warrior has many), and even if you don’t use all the warrior minor damage synergy he can easily end up being 10/4 after one turn for 3 mana. He actually doesn’t even need a taunt - just drop him on a full board before you start trading.
But throw a whirlwind or something like that and he gets ridiculous fast. He’d still be very good (probably still overpowered) if his ability was triggered only by friendly minions, which means it’s probably at least twice as effective as it should be. And it allows some ridiculous combos - with warsong commander and the right board/cards you could easily have a 30+ damage charge minion.
I know I disappeared for a few years, but I still follow these. Been getting into Hearthstone on at least a 5-game a day basis. If anyone wants to add me, my battletag is “CaptC#1116”
Also, hello everyone I used to talk to nightly before wife, kids, and farm occurred!
As bad as they made undertaker, I’m not sure he’s even worth running in the current brawl with tons of deathrattle minions. I guess as a one drop he is.
This is the third time they’ve made one of these terrible Deathrattle tavern brawls, and this is the worst of them all. I knew going in that this was going to be a “one win and done” Brawl, but even that took a full fucking hour.
It’s horrible. I’m way ahead, have lethal the next turn, and Syl comes out, with a reincarnate card to kill it, and I’m done. Brutal.