Yeah, it’s fine for players to be slowly introduced to mechanics - that’s a good thing. But any F2P player is going to hit a point where their understanding of the meta leads them to start looking at build choices, and that leads to an understanding of the timeframes involved in building a collection.
Any F2P game needs to have a reasonable gate when we’re talking about how long it will take to build up to a respectable position. Hearthstone has introduced lots of new cards (which is great), but hasn’t done anything to mitigate the gap that widens every time they do that (which is not great).
Let’s look at the adventure packs. Every adventure has a couple of cards that are extremely unlikely to ever fall out of the meta altogether. Naxxramas, for example, has Sludge Belcher, Death’s Bite, Mad Scientist, Zombie Chow, Nerubian Egg, etc. These are all really, really good cards!
So let’s say a brand new player decides that he wants to start by saving and unlocking the solo adventures. There are 14 wings at 700 gold a piece. Assuming a casual player is averaging 60 gold a day (40 from quests and 20 more from six wins), that’s still six months, less a few days for gold rewards for completing newbie achievements. And that assumes that no gold is being spent on arenas or decks! No GvG, no Grand Tournament. Just one classic pack a week from tavern brawls. Even if that new player is being a bit more careful and selects half those wings, we’re still talking three months. Lord knows how long it would take for a new player to earn all the rares from the three main sets - let alone even a respectable portion of the epics.
There’s a broad difference between “pay to win” and “pay to compete,” sure, but a “pay to compete” model still isn’t great. Any free game relies on a steady influx of new players to populate the brackets.
Compare Hearthstone to Blizzard’s other free game: Heroes of the Storm. They recently upped the free rotation to 10 heroes at any given time, and a casual player can easily buy a new hero every week or two. Is it extremely difficult to earn every hero? Yeah, sure, but there is no universe where you have to have all of them, and there’s no reliance on lucky draws. You don’t have to wait on a lucky Doomhammer drop in order to make certain Thrall builds viable. Once you own Thrall, everything else comes down to player skill. Meanwhile, HotS is pulling in tons of money because I see premium skins in every single match (I even spent ten bucks myself over the winter sale).
Hearthstone is a CCG, so of course they need to leverage the collectible part of that equation. I just hope they do some stuff soon to keep the gap between free players and paid ones reasonable.
Were I in charge, I would start devaluing the classic packs. Every x amount of gold or dollars spent in the game should just earn you classic packs for free. Spend 700 gold on Naxxramus? Have some classic packs. Buy 10 Grand Tournament packs with real money? Throw some classics in there, too. Whenever the next big expansion comes out, do the same for GvG. And so on.
I really like Hearthstone and think it’s a great example of a CCG, but without some systemic changes in how they deal with newbie gating I don’t see the game going the distance.