The Hindsight Culture

Great Debates
1

One of the main issues concerning the current massacre at Virginia Tech is why didn’t they do more to warn students, why didn’t they cancel classes, etc.? This thread discusses some information relating possibly to 9/11 that wasn’t followed up on.

I get a little annoyed that there seems to be this mentality to find so much more blame than there really is. While it is necessary to go back and determine how things can be improved and whether mistakes are made, I feel like it goes deeper than that. It seems to me that looking back on these incidents it is too easy to say this or that should have been done and to get indignant. Decision that seem easy really aren’t at the time. Cancel classes because there had been ashooting? But why? To what end? I just don’t buy it. These are extraordinary events, that shouldn’t warrant us sounding the sirens every time there is somehting that could turn ort horribly. Are we going to live in a society that prepares for the worst possible scenario, scared of our own shadow? What I worry about tis that we start to live in a sociiety whhere it isn’t really as free as it is now, because we are forcing ourselves to live in fear.

I am rambling. Bottom line, is I don’t think the Administration acted irresponsibly. I get annoyed that folks are able to project perectly what should have been done and then immediatley cast the net of blame because it wasnt done.

Things happen, we will never be able to stop it all, and when they do happen the series of events that lead up to them appear to show dozens of places it could have been avoided. But they aren’t obvious at the time and that kind of accountability, it is impossible and even irresponsible to a degree.

2

This event was one of an extremely rare set of events, and as such, it’s pretty hard to blame people for not putting the pieces together the day of, at least given the information we have now. Even any future information is going to look especially significant mostly with the benefit of hindsight.

If it were general policy to cancel classes any time there was a serious crime classes would be canceled constantly all over the place.

3

I agree they made the best decision they could at the time. Watching the feeding frenzy on TV yesterday just regarding the issue of when they informed the student of the circumstances was hard to watch after a while.

My daughter went to VT and it’s a huge campus and most students don’t live on it. There’s no way they could just stop everything.

4

I agree with the general point of the OP. It seems to me, however, that while canceling classes might have been an over-reaction, it might have been appropriate to issue warnings and notifications of the first killings with a greater sense of urgency considering that the killer remained at large.

5

[QUOTE=I Love Me, Vol. I]
I agree with the general point of the OP. It seems to me, however, that while canceling classes might have been an over-reaction, it might have been appropriate to issue warnings and notifications of the first killings with a greater sense of urgency considering that the killer remained at large.
[/QUOTE]

How should they have notified everyone? Two hours isn’t enough time to post handbills across campus. I doubt they have the aility to text message all students at once. An email to everyone in the VT community might have been possible, I suppose. Cops aren’t generally computer people - it probably didn’t occur to them. Hindsight…

6

[QUOTE=Leviosaurus]
How should they have notified everyone? Two hours isn’t enough time to post handbills across campus. I doubt they have the aility to text message all students at once. An email to everyone in the VT community might have been possible, I suppose. Cops aren’t generally computer people - it probably didn’t occur to them. Hindsight…
[/QUOTE]
I don’t think they could have notified “everyone”. I think they did send out an email. I am not sure how they could have expressed more urgency, I only meant that if they could have sent the messages out more broadly and been more explicit about there being a killer at large in the campus area then that may have been a good idea. Otherwise, I am not sure that the administration was lax in their duty.

I have a comment on the “Hindsight Culture” in general. I think that the problem is not so much in the use of hindsight as a tool to see what may have gone “wrong”, but that many people don’t have good critical thinking skills. Therefore, people aren’t good at using hindsight without thinking that the perfect solution (discerned only with the benefit of hindsight) should have been implemented.

My immediate, knee-jerk reaction to the way the campus police and administration handled the first killings was that they fucked-up royally by letting people go about their normal day thereby setting them up to be massacred like unsuspecting piglets.

Then I though for just a moment and realized that you can not shut down an entire campus or town every time an incident happens that has the potential for further hazard. As the police chief said (paraphrased): “We can’t have an armed guard outside of every classroom at all times.”

I think that immediately after a tragedy like the VT killings occurs people can’t think analytically and unemotionally and consider the practical limits both of resources, and of people’s tolerance of interference with their day-to-day affairs. It’s much easier to wring one’s hand and fret that, “they should have done more!”

7

Does VTech have its own police?

Does VTech have emergency contingency plans? In case of fire or other emergency, etc.

8

[QUOTE=I Love Me, Vol. I]
I don’t think they could have notified “everyone”. I think they did send out an email. I am not sure how they could have expressed more urgency, I only meant that if they could have sent the messages out more broadly and been more explicit about there being a killer at large in the campus area then that may have been a good idea. Otherwise, I am not sure that the administration was lax in their duty.

I have a comment on the “Hindsight Culture” in general. I think that the problem is not so much in the use of hindsight as a tool to see what may have gone “wrong”, but that many people don’t have good critical thinking skills. Therefore, people aren’t good at using hindsight without thinking that the perfect solution (discerned only with the benefit of hindsight) should have been implemented.

My immediate, knee-jerk reaction to the way the campus police and administration handled the first killings was that they fucked-up royally by letting people go about their normal day thereby setting them up to be massacred like unsuspecting piglets.

Then I though for just a moment and realized that you can not shut down an entire campus or town every time an incident happens that has the potential for further hazard. As the police chief said (paraphrased): “We can’t have an armed guard outside of every classroom at all times.”

I think that immediately after a tragedy like the VT killings occurs people can’t think analytically and unemotionally and consider the practical limits both of resources, and of people’s tolerance of interference with their day-to-day affairs. It’s much easier to wring one’s hand and fret that, “they should have done more!”
[/QUOTE]

I agree. I was initially disturbed about the seeming lack of response, but we have to decide if we want to live in a “safe” world vs. a free world. Not that the two are mutually exclusive, but there is really no way to ensure absolute safety anywhere. Not without extreme, time-intensive, and obtrusive efforts to limit that possibility.

Even if it were feasible, would we really want to have armed guards outside of every classroom? The reality is that some individuals will find the flaws in any security system and exploit them. Thankfully there are few people like Cho, or the 9/11 hijackers. But they exist, and any protocols erected can’t stop the determined attacker.

There are now reports that his work in class was dark and disturbing, even thinking that he fit the profile of a school shooter. The professors who had him in class referred him for counseling. It seems as if a lot of signals were sent from the shooter, and even acted upon. That didn’t stop him from committing this atrocity. And if not at VT, might this have taken place somewhere else?

I apologize if this is somewhat rambling. I am something of a emotional mess right now, especially after seeing the people - the RA who was a triple major and in the band, the student from the Boston area - whose mother, I believe was waiting to hear about his condition, the professor who was a Holocaust survivor and shielded his students from bullets… such an incredible tragedy.

9

[QUOTE=I Love Me, Vol. I]
I have a comment on the “Hindsight Culture” in general. I think that the problem is not so much in the use of hindsight as a tool to see what may have gone “wrong”, but that many people don’t have good critical thinking skills. Therefore, people aren’t good at using hindsight without thinking that the perfect solution (discerned only with the benefit of hindsight) should have been implemented…

…I think that immediately after a tragedy like the VT killings occurs people can’t think analytically and unemotionally and consider the practical limits both of resources, and of people’s tolerance of interference with their day-to-day affairs. It’s much easier to wring one’s hand and fret that, “they should have done more!”
[/QUOTE]
Well put. Excellent post.

In all seriousness, you should consider sending that as a letter to the editor of the NYT or Newsweek or something. It’s a shame that Press is more interested in fanning the sensationalist flames right now than making intelligent observations like this one.

10

RANT ON

Television news media (CNN particularly) seems to be pressing the question in a sensational manner as to whether the VT administration and/or police did enough, quickly enough, to protect students and staff despite the fact that the authorities presented a reasonable explanation for their actions in that they thought the first incident was isolated and that the shooter had vacated the local area.

I feel this “drama-amplification” approach is driven by the need to serve a bottom line and it is an insult to intelligence and to the gravity of the subject matter.

RANT OFF

11

[QUOTE=Apos]
This event was one of an extremely rare set of events, and as such, it’s pretty hard to blame people for not putting the pieces together the day of, at least given the information we have now. Even any future information is going to look especially significant mostly with the benefit of hindsight.

If it were general policy to cancel classes any time there was a serious crime classes would be canceled constantly all over the place.
[/QUOTE]
Maybe, but if classes were cancelled at a college campus anytime someone on that campus was fatally shot and the shooter wasn’t immediately apprehended, you wouldn’t have to cancel classes all that tremendously often.

I don’t expect the cops to know what to do in terms of warning the campus. But it’s hard to imagine that if the cops came on campus because someone was shot to death, that nobody woke up the president of the university to let him know it was time for him to earn his salary.

And yeah, I think he should have gotten the word out by whatever means possible that there was an armed and dangerous killer at large somewhere on the campus - by email to all students, faculty, and other personnel, by telephone tree or blast fax to the academic departments, whose secretaries could have taped signs to the classroom building doors, and so forth.

But if a killer with a gun was loose in the building complex where I and several thousand other people work, and the PTB knew this, everybody here would be pretty upset if they just let us come to work without warning us of the danger.

That’s what happened at Virginia Tech yesterday morning: they made no effort to warn anyone for nearly two hours after they knew they had a killer on the loose. I don’t think it’s just hindsight that’s telling me that’s a bit crazy.

At any rate, I’m sure that both sides of this argument will be made in court in a year or two. Virginia Tech is going to be hit with a few dozen civil suits for having failed to try to warn the students who were killed or injured.

12

Well, everyone seemed to find out pretty quickly about the massacre. Perhaps that same grapevine could have been used to distribute the warning.

At the risk of a hijack – I see it from a slightly different perspective. Lots of folks are posting “there’s no way the administration could have done any better” and “they did all they could”; one of my bosses here, speaking from a management perspective, explained that some times you’re just guessing based on incomplete info and too many vague possibilities. He felt that should exonerate the administration because “one can only do so much, realistically.”

I agree…but. These guys – university administrators, corporate CEOs, bigwigs everywhere – get paid like they’re superheroes. Huge sums of money many times what most people earn…because these guys are supposed to add value. When the chips are down, they always say “there’s only so much one can do.”

Again, I agree. I would, however, argue “then, there’s only so much you can get paid,” and cut their salaries. I mean, anyone can fail to act. Anyone can not foresee what’s coming, not warn the students, not take extraordinary precautions. They don’t perform like superheroes when the shooting starts – fine. Let’s not pay them like superheroes. Our immigrant cleaning lady could have added as much value as the whole administration did. And she probably works harder.

edit: I see I’m not the only person thinking of salaries, RTFirefly. :slight_smile:

Sailboat

13

This is ridiculous. Entire school districts get closed for a friggin’ snowstorm. Workplaces get shut for a day because of snowflakes. Which are much less dangerous than a killer with a gun. Of course they should have closed the school for a day.

Are people so inured to guns and violence that two people being shot to death is not worth closing a school for for a day? Is it only when you kill more than ten people in a place that you should do anything - even in their honour?

This world is nuts. Absolutely nuts.

14

[QUOTE=Sailboat]
Well, everyone seemed to find out pretty quickly about the massacre. Perhaps that same grapevine could have been used to distribute the warning.

Sailboat
[/QUOTE]

I think the methods and sources that would have been used to to inform the local VT population of a potential threat would be rather different than those that were used to inform the world of the incident

15

I remember we did a similar blame game thread about 9/11 years ago that went on for several pages…essentially attempting to second guess or cast blame on the FAA and the Air Force for missing clues and facts, not reacting fast enough, etc.

It boiled down to basically the fog of war. People working at the time are usually doing so with imperfect information, fragmentary data and or under false assumptions. Its ALWAYS easier in hindsight to be able to go back through (at leisure) the data and point out all the stupid things people missed, how they fucked up here, and here, and there…and how WE would NEVER have made such stupid and silly assumptions and mistakes. If only we, brilliant beings we are, had been there. Instead of the poor shlubs who actually WERE there.

Its complete bullshit of course. Those folks were under tremendous pressure, mostly time, and working with fragmentary and imperfect (and out and out wrong) data in most cases…and attempting to make decisions in the environment. They are almost bound to make mistakes…and sometimes those mistakes cost lives. This falls under the unfortunate heading of ‘shit happens’.

Its pretty much the Monday morning quarterback syndrome…I’ve been in countless bars and heard countless folks tell me that they would have done this or that instead of what the stupid coach did…and thus they would have easily won the game. If only THEY were coach they could prove their innate brilliance! :stuck_out_tongue:

While this is entertaining when talking about sports its less so (IMHO) when talking about something like this horrible tragedy…or about what happened on 9/11. When talking about this kind of thing its better to be a bit more informed about how data and decisions are REALLY processed by real humans under such pressure…and about what ‘fog of war’ actually means in real life terms.

-XT

16

[QUOTE=Sailboat]

I agree…but. These guys – university administrators, corporate CEOs, bigwigs everywhere – get paid like they’re superheroes. Huge sums of money many times what most people earn…because these guys are supposed to add value. When the chips are down, they always say “there’s only so much one can do.”
Sailboat
[/QUOTE]

I don’t think they are paid like superheroes. If we are to assume that they are typical of those in their field, I think they are paid like intelligent, hardworking, administrators.

The value they are expected to add cannot extend to cover an expectation of premonition.

I mean really, if they really thought there was a mass-murdering lunatic roaming the campus who was about to kill dozens of people, don’t you think they would have immediately done absolutely everything in their power to prevent catastrophe?

Instead, they thought the first incident was isolated and that the shooter had left the campus entirely.

It was only when the shooting in the second incident began did the authorities realize the true nature of the beast they were facing. THEN we saw the massive show of force that would have been so useful from the very beginning had the authorities only had the benefit of premonition

17

I don’t see that they did anything wrong either, but the screaming heads need something to keep the ratings up. They’ll make some stuff up, and then there will be a hew and cry to do something. The pols will then respond in some messed up way, and the screaming heads will pat themselves on the back.

There’ll probably be talk about metal detectors, searching dorm rooms, making sure anybody who seems to be a loner is harassed into counseling, and other such nonsense. In the end, I’m betting we end up with something like mandatory PA systems on all college campuses.

18

In any case had they alerted everyone that the first two murders occured and shut everything down, the perpetrator, a student would have been possibly locked in a dorm with 800 kids. He’d still be there somewhere on the campus at any rate with an intent to kill as many people as possible so it’s hard to see how it could really have improved the situation.

19

Actually, I’m suddenly reminded of time I spent in Beirut. I was walking down the street and I passed by the American University of Beirut.

‘Hey, I should check out the campus.’, I thought

I was immediately blocked entry to the entire campus.

“Are you a student here?”, says the well-armed guard.

“No”

“Well, then I cannot let you on the campus”

And he was NOT fucking around.

Unless an institution adopts security measures similarly thorough, It will be all to easy for anyone with intent to accomplish the horrors of what happened at VT.

20

But the guy was a student.

I hope we don’t adopt Beirut as a model.