That’s something I really, seriously, no kidding am afraid of. it’s just like when he knew the exit polls were wrong in 2000 and 2004. The fact that he and Rove can still be so smugly certain of the results cannot be based on any objective reading of the mood of the electorate. It has to be either profoundly delusional whistling past the graveyard or they know they have the machines in the bag and how people actually vote means nothing anymore.
I have absolutely no faith that the election results will be on the up and up and I’m not joking at all. I have a feeling in the pit of my stomach about it.
Despite the “we’re not going to do anything” stuff, it sounds like Bush is going to start talking about the economy to try to shift the focus off of Iraq.
If that’s what they’re saying, I think the Dems will pick up 20 or more House seats. Could be a lot more, but I’d be genuinely surprised if the Dems didn’t get 20.
I’m just here to boast that I put 100 down on the Dems taking both houses a few years ago on this very board, and was roundly laughed at.
Even if it doesn’t happen, I find the current political picture deeply satisfying, since the current hell the Republicans are being put through mostly came about from what I figured it would: deep anger at Iraq. Foley is icing on the cake.
I can imagine he’s serious. I’d seen small (online) photos of Ford before this but, looking at them without the context of someone saying “he’s black”, it never occurred to me that he was. I don’t know whether I just don’t notice very subtle ethnic characteristics or what…
In case you’re not having enough fun yet this year, in 2008 there will be only 12 Dem but 21, count 'em, 21 Rep Senate seats in play.
ISTM the kind of folk who wouldn’t vote for a black man anway wouldn’t care how black he his, and Ford is, in fact, by still-current American standards, black. As for the size of the race discount factor, there isn’t much data and I can’t quickly find any, but when Harvey Gantt challenged Jesse Helms in NC in 1990 and 1996 his actual vote ranabout 5 points behind the polls IIRC.
That should be the Dems’ year to take the Senate, if they fall short this year.
This year, the Dems are trying to take the Senate with the terrain distinctly against them, and the impressive thing is that they’re within striking distance of it anyway. If I’ve counted correctly, 18 of the 33 Senate seats up this year are currently held by Dems, despite their only having 45 seats in the Senate. That means the GOP has a theoretical 40-27 Senate edge going into the elections, and only needs to win 10 out of 33 races to hold their majority. That’s difficult terrain for the Dems.
And yet the GOP may fail to win 10 out of 33. It’s still not the way to bet (if I had to pick a number, I’d forecast a 50-50 Senate, which would still be GOP-run on account of Cheney), but it’s a real possibility.
Did anyone watch the debate last night? I wanted to because I was kind of hoping Katherine Harris would go off the deep end. Probably would have been more interesting than the governor’s debate tonight.
Yea, but electoral-vote.com gives a seat to a candidate even if their winning percentage is within the margin of error. So, if the latest poll shows the Democrat with 48% and the Republican with 47%, that seat will be credited to the Democrat, even if it’s really a statistical tie.
If you look at today’s numbers in the Senate race, there are three seats like that…
In Virginia, it’s Allen 47% Webb 46%
In Missouri, Talent 46%, McCaskill 45%
In Tennessee, Corker 47%, Ford 45%
So, in reality all three seats are two close to call, but the website is listing them as Republican seats for its total. I’m sure it’s the same for the House, and that 227-206 figure can flip really easily.
To be fair, it lists them as “barely Republican” or “barely Democratic” and shades their graphic accordingly. The site isn’t really making a prediction but taking a snapshot. There are a few dead heats out there but the mood of the electorate doesn’t bode well for the Pubs. Turn out is always important and whatever side feels more motivated will have an advantage. I think those projections will be fairly close and that a lot of the close races will go to the Dems.
Right. It does. I’m primarily talking about the “Current Senate” and “Current House” numbers. I don’t have a problem with the website, but if you’re not paying attention, it can be misleading.
If you click along, you’ll find the guy does make projections based on straight-line extrapolations of the last 2 polls, but that’s so useless it’s surprising he bothers.
As a compendium of mere raw poll numbers, though, it’s both the most comprehensive and current I’ve come across. The message you can get from it, besides that the Reps are getting Katrina’d, is that VA, TN, MO, and maybe NJ will decide it, and they’re close, but then we all knew that already.
Which one is black?