This isn’t going to end well and Zimbabwe is already in an awful situation. Mugabe was expected to go on TV today and announce his resignation. Instead, BBC news has just reported that Mugabe has vowed to stay on.
Earlier, he was given until tomorrow night to resign or face impeachment. This follows his wife, who he wanted to install as leader, being expelled from the ruling Zanu-PF party. All of this drama has come since a military coup last week.
I assume this means that Mugabe will end up like Nicolae Ceaușescu within the next 24 hours. However, I have little hope that Zimbabwe will improve under the next leader. I also have no faith that the promised elections next year will take place, or if they do, they’ll be a joke.
Fwiw, I don’t think it will get at all nasty. It’s just a little awkward - General Chiwenga just didn’t have the heart to force it through. A few more days and all should be well.
Mugabe knows the way to screw ZANU-PF for dumping him after he’s no more use to them (what a convenient outburst of concern for the national welfare after 3 decades of letting him ruin the country) is to force them to overtly admit they’re overthrowing him in a coup, thus triggering sanctions (and that’s how come there is the move to formally impeach him). So he’s refusing to budge, especially if the demand is to hand over to Mnangagwa. He’s not going to accept forced retirement.
Mugabe is 93; if the military was going to kill him they’d just make it like he died of natural causes, not stick him in front of a firing squad with the cameras rolling. I do think things look a lot worse for Mrs Mugabe than they do for her husband.
While he may end up being deposed, he will probably be allowed a quiet retirement (his age means he’s not really a threat to anyone). Deposing him is not the primary purpose of this coup, it is to make sure the military’s (and China’s) choice of successor is chosen when he leaves power.
It looks like this is all about preventing his wife gaining power - so one assumes you have to look at where her influence lies, who are her allies and supporters.
China has sunk a shedload into Zimbabwe and in return has only seen corruption and utter mismanagement of the economy, I guess enough is enough.
I expect China wishes to gain a greater influence over the whole region - but that will not happen unless it can demonstrate some benefit for local national populations to remove their idiot leaders. This is not about democratisation, its about competence and it is hard to see a great deal of that in the region.
I expect this will attract a number of certain types of comment, but the reality is that corruption, breath taking incompetence and arrogance is a characteristic that seems to be dominant in the minds of many African states, all the while leveraged by the arrogant, corrupt but unfortunately very competent types of dealers who make money out of central Africa.
Can they get rid of this idiot before he has time to organise his supporters in street protests and violent disorder? Well they have supported him all these years, and ultimately its still the idiots at ZANU PF that is running the show - so anything could happen because the nepotism and corruption still remains.
As I understand it, this is about the old guard in ZANU-PF using the military to force Mugabe, his wife and their few friends out, and getting China’s tacit approval, in order to secure their and ZANU-PF’s position in advance of the next elections. Whether Mugabe has enough supporters to launch much in the way of trouble seems a bit doubtful at the moment. The potential for trouble seems more likely to come with the disappointed hopes of the opposition, if it does indeed turn out to be business as before.
Not like Ian Smith’s Rhodesia was any better overall.
But yeah, I think the under-Officers are getting fed up that he won’t do the decent thing and croak. The dude’s 93. Which means that even people a generation younger than him are nearing their 80’s. The record’s 122, and if there is any bugger alive who might beat it, its old Landing Strip 'Stache on the Zambezi.
