In my opinion, it’s the very fact that he jumps that leaves no doubt that it was a foul, no matter where the referee was.
I mean, what sort of legitimate move was he attempting by jumping? None. I really can’t see how jumping could be considered a great idea to clear the danger and I’ve never seen another goalkeeper do that in such a situation.
You could be jumping to try and intercept the ball, the way a wall does, because you expect the player to try and score over your head. Looking at the replays, it’s clear that he jumps a little too late to be doing that, but in real time, it wouldn’t be so evident.