I understood that as the crew’s unambiguous view of Issac from the start, as it was the Union’s unambiguous view of the species as well.
I think we’re saying the same thing in a way- the holodeck would be used for things that are too risky to do in real life, or that just flat-out can’t be done in real life.
But for stuff that people can do in real-life in the show’s era, I suspect in a post-scarcity society, they’d just DO that in real life. Things we’d do in VR because of cost or time limitations, like say… visiting Paris for an afternoon, would be things they’d just go do. They’d hop on the hyper-shuttle and be drinking wine in some bistro in an hour or two, because they’re not constrained in the same way we are.
Elendil’s Heir kind of points out what I’m saying- fighting the Battle of Britain is something you can’t just go do, unless you lived in 1940.
I’m not so sure about the sex aspects; they haven’t really explored that too much, but the ongoing implication is that the Mochlans are kind of more analogous to 21st century Earth than the present-day (in-show) humans are, in terms of things like sex. I’d think we can extrapolate from the way that the human characters reacted to Bortus’ sex lagoon, that it is kind of a eye-rolling thing, and maybe not something people of that era do much of, presumably because they’re a post-scarcity society there too. (?)
I simply don’t believe that this ‘post-scarcity’ society is possible. There are currently about SEVEN BILLION people on this planet. If even .00001 of them decided “You know, I feel like visiting Paris today” that would involve 700,000 of them descending on the place simultaneously. Do you think Paris has enough cafe seats for 700 thousand peoples to sit there, sipping a leisurely glass of wine? Let alone crushing them into the Louvre or Notre Dame.
How many of us would love to relax on our perfect private beach on a pristine Caribbean Island? Versus how many miles of Caribbean beaches actually exist?
Yeah, sure, we’ll have amazing synthesis machines and everybody could absolutely dine on pate of hummingbird tongues without wiping out any species, why not? But that synthesis is really just another form of AR. You wouldn’t be eating actual hummingbird tongue pate, just chemicals arranged so as to be completely indistinguishable from the pate that real hummingbird tongues could be mashed into.
Masses of people simply can’t do in reality things that involve places/peoples/items that are scarce in reality. EVERY MAN/WOMAN YOU simply cannot have sex with the REAL [whoever your hottest fantasy person is]. Nor can you play in the REAL Superbowl, or wear the REAL British Crown Jewels, or sit on the REAL Iron Throne.
I’m not arguing with you about the feasibility of it all, but that’s essentially the Star Trek/Orville setting. Basically that money is obsolete, and that they’re living in a post-scarcity society.
I’m just saying that in general, if someone wants to go skiing in a post-scarcity society, they GO skiing. There’s none of this “I’d like to go skiing, but I can’t get time off.” or “I’d love to go skiing, but I can’t afford it.”.
And… the idea of post-scarcity doesn’t necessarily mean unlimited access to everything. It’s more a concept that there’s enough material wealth for everyone- there’s no money to serve as an economic allocation mechanism. In other words, everyone has pretty much whatever physical stuff that they want- food, water, books, linens, etc… It doesn’t mean that EVERYTHING is now abundant- of course things like total linear footage of Caribbean beachfront is limited.
I imagine there would be a lot of long-term wait-lists for unique items, or for things that can’t be replicated that are limited. But there wouldn’t be the idea that the rich get the good stuff, and the poor get the crap- it would come down to some other allocation mechanism for things like rare wines, or access to unique tourist attractions, etc…
And you’re confusing impossibility with scarcity in a few of your examples. Nobody’s playing in the Super Bowl or sitting on the Iron Throne because they paid more for it than someone else; they’re not doing it because they don’t have the requisite skills and abilities, or because it’s a totally fictional thing.
So maybe people might sit around in virtual Caribbean beaches while sitting in Siberia in The Orville’s universe, but I suspect most people would just go elsewhere- Bali, Tahiti, Australia, California, France, Greece, Mexico, Hawaii, etc…
Post-scarcity doesn’t mean that everybody is wealthy - just that nobody is poor. Everybody has food, shelter, and security.
In The Orville’s universe, they’ve mentioned that wealth is measured by personal prestige. Presumably higher levels of prestige would put you to the front of the queue for things a hotel room in Paris or a Caribbean vacation.
There’s other stuff to consider, too. First, the population of a post-scarcity world would likely be much lower than modern-day Earth. Birth rates and prosperity have an inverse relationship. The richer a country, the lower the birthrate. A post-scarcity is as wealthy as you get.
Also, our fictional post-scarcity societies both have FTL travel and dozens of colony worlds. Do you want that beachfront property? Go west, young man, there are whole planets of beaches. There’s going to be a constant stream of emigration from Earth, further depopulating the planet and decreasing the value of square footage.
What is the economy like on a colony? What of other civilization’s planets that use money? I can replicate a few million quatloos and be a millionaire on Alpha Centauri 4.
A self-correcting problem; the very first day it happened, word would get out that Paris is a shit place to visit, at least at peak times. Demand would fluctuate until tourist levels arrived at an equilibrium price of crowding versus the desire to be there.
As Yogi Berra said of a restaurant, “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.”
And why deal with the crowds when you can experience the more ideal Paris in a holosuite?
I agree that Earth in the future of the Orville, or the Star Trek future will have a much smaller population. For one thing, Earth in the Star Trek universe supposedly had a massive war during the 21st century (ours, in other words), and off-planet migration would also reduce the population.
Colonies would still, presumably, have replicator technology so they would still be post scarcity in terms of food, shelter, and security. Technical expertise would be more valuable in smaller communities, so highly skilled people would have more ‘prestige currency’ than they might have on Earth.
You’d probably end up with some neo-Luddite colonies were they eschew technology at some level, and then you end up with whatever kind of economy develops naturally.
As for other planets, I imagine most any civilization (in our fictional post-scarcity universe) taking part in the interplanetary community would also be post scarcity. You could go live like a king on a more primitive planet with replicated quatloos, but you could just as easily live like a king on your homeworld.
Ah, but studies show that people prize relative position in the social hierarchy higher than absolute improvement. As messed up as it seems to me, it’s clear that most people would rather take a ten percent pay cut, if everyone else in their neighborhood or social group took a thirty percent cut, rather than getting a ten percent pay raise while others got a thirty percent raise. So living like a king on the more primitive planet would still appeal, because you can’t really live like a king on Earth: by definition, you’re not living like a king if everyone else around you is doing the same.
Starving, you make some excellent points about the inherent impossibility of a truly post-scarcity economy. We discussed this at length in the now-seven-years-old (ack, where has the time gone?) thread on automation: What happens when the robots (peacefully) take over? - Great Debates - Straight Dope Message Board Some people said that there will be no reason for anyone to seek to have more money than anyone else, that it might even become meaningless to have “money”. I agreed that everyone will be able to live in a mansion, have all the cars and electronic toys they desire, etc. But there will still only be so many lots on Lake Como, so many reservations at the trendy new bistro overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge, etc. VR never came up in that discussion, but your point is very well taken, that if everyone wants those kinds of things, most people will have to settle for a simulation.
Porn is of course far less realistic and immersive. But although you’re certainly right that it doesn’t satisfy in the same way, it also is much easier to obtain.
Are you familiar with the data on the “sex recession” among young people?
I think it probably is at least in part because more people are contenting themselves with unlimited ubiquitous free porn. Adding in VR would make this effect a lot more potent. Here’s an email the *Atlantic *author received:
The piece also points to Japan as perhaps the canary in the coal mine: porn and high-tech sex dolls are big there, and
:eek:
Yes, I am familiar with the data. (MMWR link.)
Some little facts to consider in that regard.
Teen premarital sex peaked in the '80s and began a fairly linear drop beginning in 1991. The internet and with it that “unlimited ubiquitous free porn” did not kick in to the wide public until sometime after 2000.
There is also the context that teens have concurrently linearly reduced a wide variety of other non-sexual risky behaviors in that same time period: they wear seat belts more often, are less likely to drive in a car with someone substance impaired, less often carry weapons, less smoking, less binge drinking, less other drug use excepting marijuana … and sexually related are more likely to use birth control when they have sex.
The linear decrease from the historically high teen premarital sex levels of the '80s beginning in the early '90s is more likely part of whatever else has been going on that has resulted in teens choosing to make fewer stupid choices than explained by a free porn ubiquity that began to occur a decade later.
Fun fact - the '50s had the highest teen pregnancy rate.
As for Japan and the drop since 2005: 2005 just happened to be the peak of sexual partnering in Japan. While America peaked in the '80s and began to drop in the 90s, Japan was a bit behind and did not peak until 2005 and has now dropped back to the 1991 level. Women are choosing to not partner or hook up and that is not due to high tech porn dolls as an alternative.
For both these cultures though it may have been the peaks, separated by roughly two decades, that were the relative anomalies.
This does get afield from the show but I would agree that technology has allowed at least some need for social connectivity to be met without leaving your house. I don’t go a neighborhood bar or coffeeshop to hang argue and discuss - I play here
Star Trek has shown us several colonies like that already. Off the top of my head:
And actually, the best analogue to the holodeck/simulator may be gaming. I don’t game myself (except poker), but I know several guys who hole up with their games, headsets, and Red Bull, ordering pizza as needed.
So I’d imagine that the “porny” part would only be one aspect of the appeal of superrealistic VR like we see in these shows. But it’s hard to imagine that a lot of awkward guys (awkward people generally) wouldn’t find it easier to just mostly retreat to the virtual world. (I suppose this is getting more into RP1 territory.)
Gaming of that kind would require lots of physical movement. Not something that would go over well with the pizza/Red Bull loving types.
Walking around a party or hanging out on a beach? To tie it back to the show, nothing Gordon did seemed terribly strenuous (although we didn’t see the sex, LOL).
I Misunderstood your previous post. I thought you meant gamers would love to spend their time in a Holodeck running around on a battle field in full gear shooting bad guys. Lol
Exactly. If you genuinely can’t tell the difference, if the holo version provides all that you’re looking for in an 'afternoon in Paris (scenery, atmosphere, a glass of wine and a croissant, maybe), why not just use that?
Something else I’ve been thinking of. Wouldn’t the holosuites be perfect to use for larger groups to gather around shared interests?
Say you like reggae music, rum drinks, and meeting the type of people who like to hang out, drink, and dance in a Caribbean beach type situation? So you (and your current like minded friends) sign up for the local MegaHoloSuite next Friday night, and post an open invitation on the JoinUs! website for your relatively close area. Like if you live in Boston, you aim the invitation to those who live inside Route 128.
Bingo! You have a party, doing the kind of things you like, full of Real Genuine People who also like the same things. Wahoo! (Okay, you probably have to have holo bartenders/waiters/security.)
No more worries that you’re really a closed-off introvert getting twisted up by interacting only with Fake people. Hey, there will probably be companies that run these types of gathering regularly, centered on all sorts of different themes. Easy ways to meet ‘your type’ of people.
In fact, in some ways this would be better than transporting over to a real area suited to your theme and partying there. Besides removing the problem of those Travel Hotspots being overrun and possibly ruined by too many visitors, the people you will meet at the party are highly likely to actually live near your real life location.
And so if John and Mary hit if off, great! They won’t have to deal with the complication that she’s a law partner in a Vancouver firm while he owns an Art Gallery in Boston, and who’s going to have to disrupt their life if they decide they want to be life partners?
Cruise lines provide a whole menu of “fun things to do” while sailing to exotic locations. I can see a tour/entertainment company doing this, folding holosuites into the mix. Having a professional company doing this provides a “surprise events!” factor for the patrons.
Grrrl, I see what you mean now. Sorry for the confusion.
StarvingButStrong, that’s a great idea! It wouldn’t work for people who live outside major metro areas, but it would be awesome for those who do.