There is a thread running in GD on the death of Europe, with a discussion of fertility rates and population replacement values. In the US, says one of the cites, the average woman has 2.08 children – just about the replacement value. When I saw that, I thought to myself, maybe that’s so, but not among the people I hang around with.
So in the interests of science, do this experiment for me – if you’re among a group of people, count them, and count how many kids they have. So for example, I was in a staff meeting just a while ago, and there were 9 people, and a total of 7 kids. I’d put the average age at 35, and these are well-educated Boston-area white-collar professionals.
So give me a count, and tell me what sort of people you’re counting.
Well, there are 12 of us in my work group. The average is about 40 or a bit higher. Two are currently unmarried with no kids. Two are married and have no kids, although that will probably change soon for one of them. Six are married with a total of 13 kids among us. (I’m counting a woman who has raised her ex-husband’s four kids, although she did not give birth to any of them.) The remaining two I’m not sure about, since I don’t have much contact with them on a regular basis. There is also a man who is technically connected with our group who has 5 kids, but he generally works from home, for some reason.
These are San Diego area military and civilian professionals, most with advanced degrees.
Thank you for asking about fertility rates. The higher a state’s fertility rate, the higher percentage of that state’s vote went for Bush in 2000. It’s almost a direct correlation. You can line up the states by fertility rate, and it’s almost the same order as the presidential vote.
I’m guessing by your cod and bean reference in your location that you live in Massachusetts, perhaps in Boston. Well, there you are in Gore land. No wonder you don’t see as many kids running around.
No place votes more reliably Democratic than the District of Columbia, and not coincidentally it has the lowest fertility rate in the nation, at 1.6. Vermont comes in a second at 1.7. Utah has the highest fertility rate, at 2.6. Rates were lower in the northeastern states and higher in the southwestern states.
In my office there are, at various times, 5 people. We are notorious for most of us not wanting kids.
One women has four kids.
One woman has two.
The other three of us - have no kids.
First, everyone in my department here at work. 6 people, ages range from 35 to 55, well-educated, white collar professionals, SF Bay Area. 9 kids among us. (I’m not counting my stepchildren, if I did it would bring that count to 12.)
Next, my closest group of friends. 13 people total, again well-educated, white collar, SF Bay Area. Ages range from (loosely) 20-40. 7 kids among us. 5 of them belong to my husband and me.
My co-workers, fairly well educated - 14 people, 20 children. My boss has seven, which brings up the average; no one else has more than two. Other than one who just got married, nobody has interest in having more kids.
My siblings and I (nine of us total) have seven children. We’re all pretty much done too, except my youngest brother is thinking about one more.
My co-workers for grades K-5-…all certified teachers, with a BSE, and of the 18, 13 also have their MSE, or additional Master’s degree in a specialty area (counseling, administration, library/media, math, reading).
There are 18 of us.
3 of us have no children.
10 of us have two kids each.
3 of us have three children each.
2 of us have four children each.
Our child total is 37. Two of those 37 are adopted.
At work there are 11 of us, all highly educated (are we including that?) Average age is probably 40, I being the youngest at 33, everone else is about 10-15 years older. Among us there are 2 kids, one each for 2 employees; the rest of us are childless. I’ve always thought it was strange how few of us have children. The job I was at before (same work and about the same size) had about the same stats.
My siblings - 8 of us total, have 4 kids. 2 for one brother, another brother and a sister each have one. We range from 23-36 years old. Save the 23 year old, who is in school, we all have postgrad degrees. We’re all married except the youngest two.
The block that I live on - out of 9 houses, all married couples around 40ish, there are 7 kids - 4 in one family, 3 in another. I’m not entirely sure of what they all do for a living, but I assume that most, if not all, are white collar types.
In contrast - my mother has 5 siblings, I have 7, and I have 18 cousins on my mother’s side (making 26 children between 6 sets of parents.)
6 Managers, with various advanced degrees, ages 35 - 50, with 13 kids total. One has three, all the others have two each.
18 staffers, education varying from high school to advanced degrees, ages 25 - 40, 1 kid. There were two for a hot minute, but then the woman’s maternity leave ended, and she gave her notice 30 days later!
The last group I was with was the co-workers I played poker with, so I’ll use them: 12 people, all white-collar types in their late 20s to late 40s, with 7 existing kids and 2 on the way.
Random notes: The group consisted of 8 men and 4 women. Of the four current parents, all of whom are men, three have two children. All four of the parents are divorced or in the process of getting divorced. The two kids who are on the way will be the first child in both cases, making 5 male parents and 1 female parent (within the group). Education-wise, everyone had at least a bachelor’s degree and nearly half had graduate or postgraduate degrees.
i have 3. everyone else has one. there are a few exceptions here in shanghai with two. of course that is what one should expect in china where the one child policy is still generally enforced.
At my workplace, the average age is 25. Only one, a department head, is married. Neither he, nor the rest of his staff have any kids. The remaining few of us in higher positions are all older. My supervisor is 37, with 3 kids. I know the chief engineer has at least one. I have none. None of my wife’s friends are married or have any children. I don’t know any of the people she works with, so I can’t comment on their families, but they are all 40s - 50s and presumably have some.
I’ll do siblings. On The Highwayman’s side, his eldest sister has 4. Next sister has two, last sister two. His brother has one. On my side, my sister has two.
We have none, and don’t plan on making it any more than that.
Okay, kind of what I expected so far, but still – it’s a bit staggering, isn’t it? This is the most unscientific of surveys, but all the same, what people are reporting here is consonant with my experience, and I have no reason to think it’s wildly out of line with what’s true generally among the professional classes.
Okay, here’s another group – family gathering last night – six adults, three kids. Maybe more in the offing, but are we collectively going to get up to 12, which is about the replacement value? No much chance there.
Since I don’t work outside of the home, I’ll do myself and siblings. There are a total of five of us, with a total of twelve kids. None of us are college educated, but all of us are reasonably intelligent, and four of the five of us live in professional households.
My oldest sister, with two children (both girls), is about to tilt stats totally with grandchildren: with only two kids, she’s going to welcome her seventh grandchild into the world in just a couple of months.
Today I’m going craft shopping with my small group of “women of a certain age”, where I am the youngest at 41. Out of the 5 of us, only two have children-- two apeice. There will be no more children in this group.
We have not replaced ourselves as a group. I guess that means that Women of a Certain Age will gradually fade from the American scene.
In my 8 unit apartment building there are 6 women with school aged (or younger) children. There are 10 children or approx 1.7 per mom. The moms range in age from 25 to 40.