The RCP aggregate is Trump at +0.2.
Two-tenths of a point.
:rolleyes:
Wake me when his lead is well outside the MOE.
The RCP average includes polls taken before the convention. Post-convention, Trump’s average lead is about 3 points.
Wait till the Dem convention is reflected in the polls. We can’t be like “Oh noes! The visiting team scored a run in its half of the first! We’re DOOMED!” Trump is still swimming upstream against the electoral map and demographics.
Which is already reflected in the polls. What are the odds that Clinton will help herself at her convention? She’s a known quantity and not great at performances.
No, the debates are where she needs to get him. Unless Bill can pull a rabbit out of a hat or something like he did for Obama.
McCain had a five point lead after the 2008 RNC. Look what that did for him.
Mind boggling. That thing couldn’t have been worse if I organized myself.
Yeah, a financial crisis affecting the incumbent party and a disastrous VP pick. Trump cannot be affected by the first situation and will probably not be by the second.
What you need is for Trump to step on his own dick, except that in his biggest moment he didn’t. According to CNN’s polling, confidence in Trump increased as a result of his convention.
Convention bounces may be due to nothing more than exciting one’s supporters and making them more likely to pick up the phone when a pollster calls. I haven’t seen the crosstabs and demographic breakdowns of the latest polls yet – if anyone can find them, they should provide some data on whether this is a ‘real’ bounce or just an illusion.
You’re too hard on yourself. I’m sure you could’ve arranged for a bigger clusterfuck.
Read the CNN article. Trump has gained among independents. He’s destroying Clinton with independent voters, and still with room to grow, since 22% of independents are voting for Johnson.
I’m trying to find the demographic breakdown for the poll – “independents” don’t mean anything at all, if these were independents who already supported Trump and were just more likely to pick up the phone.
Sorry, but Democrats can’t win elections losing independents by double digits, regardless of the demographic makeup. They can lose them by 5: tops.
He will find many moments to step on his dick. He excels at dick-stepping. To suggest the danger has passed now that the convention is over is wishful thinking at best. I’m thinking the debates will be more important than the convention, where Trump was in largely friendly territory under well choreographed conditions. The debates will be his biggest moment, and I have great confidence he will wake up the next morning will large and painful footprints on his pecker.
Wait a minute. How can a convention that just starts today be reflected in the polls already? I don’t buy that … a typical convention bounce is around 3 or 4 points. Trump got in that range, I’ll bet you Clinton will get a similar bounce by next weekend.
I would hope it would be more, considering the absolute trainwreck we saw in Cleveland, but after seeing these latest poll results my confidence in the American public having any modicum of sense and forethought is pretty well shot right now.
Likely so. I suppose this worries me a miniscule smidge more than it did before I saw the poll, but polling really starts to be indicative of the state of the race after both conventions and their bounces have settled, minimizing the chance of a post-convention enthusiasm bounce driving more poll response without any actual change in voting likelihood.
Couldn’t find the demographic breakdowns for the poll – CNN’s .pdf for the poll didn’t have them.
Yeah, it’s no time for panic, but it’s starting to look like Trump will not actually beat himself.
Also, I know polls (particularly statewide polls) don’t tell us a whole lot four months before an election (note McCain’s five-point lead in 2008) … but looking at 538’s tens of thousands of simulations still shows a pretty tough Electoral College road for Trump.
He’d probably have to take two of Ohio/Pennsylvania/Florida PLUS run the table on New Hampshire/Iowa/Nevada to get to 270. Of course this is possible (and if he takes all three OH/PA/FL he’ll win), but it’s no lock.
The really uncomfortable part is that yeah, it’s still possible. Does anybody really listen to what that orange man keeps saying? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills …
Far too early even for that conclusion, IMO – the general election campaign hasn’t started; there will be debates, and probably numerous attacks and leaks designed to either expose new and terrible info about Donald, or to get under his skin so much that he reacts like he did to the Ted Cruz thing.
But we’ll see.
Trump is actually only winning about 40% of the vote. The problem is that Clinton is also winning only 40% of the vote.
Not as many people are as crazy as you think. The people you need to be worried about are the 20% who are just disgusted.
A rousing endorsement from Bernie will hopefully help with a chunk of that 20%; maybe Bloomberg’s endorsement will get another point or two. Add in a professional scorched earth political campaign, along with whatever dirt and skeletons they’ve dug up on Trump that will be selectively leaked from August to October, and hopefully that will get several more points.
I don’t think there’s anything more negative they can do against Hillary that hasn’t been seen ad nauseam already, so I think she’s about at her floor right now; I don’t think the same is true for Donald.
If they have a bombshell (i.e. Donald paid off a rape accuser; Donald has secret business ties with terrorists/Putin/etc.; Donald’s fortune is only a few tens of millions of dollars; etc.), then they’ll wait and leak it at the appropriate time – probably September or so. And I think there’s a decent chance to be something like this, or even many somethings like this.